1/ As predicted, the omicron variant continues to drive a huge surge in infections with over 14% of @UCSDHealth tests returning (+) the last few days, driving our 7-day rolling average to a record new high for the entire pandemic🦠
2/ We have not seen an impact on hospitalization @UCSDHealth yet, although this is always a lagging indicator. We do expect to see patients with omicron (especially unvaccinated patients) admitted for COVID in the coming days and weeks
3/ The majority of COVID cases diagnosed @UCSDHealth have been patients who are vaccinated, and many are boosted. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely the booster dose is providing additional benefit against omicron infection - we are analyzing our data now and will know more soon
4/ We do know that a booster dose continues to provided some protection against infection with delta, which is still circulating - several of my family members here in San Diego were diagnosed with delta in the last few days. The booster also helps protect against severe #COVID19
5/ The record number of patients with COVID has amplified the demand for monoclonal antibody infusions, which are needed for high risk patients. Fortunately the @UCSDHealth infectious disease team does a great job of prioritizing these patients
6/ We want @UCSDHealth employees to test regularly and are making self-testing available in our hospitals - I did it this morning! This uses the same process that @UCSanDiego developed for the Return to Learn program
👉returntolearn.ucsd.edu/return-to-camp…
7/ What to do with all of this news? Same as before - #GetVaccinated, #GetBoosted, wear a mask indoors, test frequently, and enable #CANotify.
Buckle up, it's going to get worse before it gets better.
Omicron is here in @SanDiegoCounty. Over 25% of recent COVID (+) tests @UCSDHealth now appear likely to be this new variant (pending final sequencing)
Omicron rapidly overtook delta in south Africa, and we expect the same here
2/ @UCSDHealth will use sotrovimab (VIR-7831) for high risk patients with early Omicron infection based on in vitro studies predicting ↑ effectiveness compared to other mAbs in the setting of all the Omicron mutations (h/t Dr. Shira Abeles) biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
3/ Omicron may present with mild, cold-like symptoms, according to new UK data cnbc.com/2021/12/16/omi…
1/ "Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Highly Vaccinated Health System Workforce" published today in @NEJM details ↓ in vaccine effectiveness against INFECTION among @UCSDHealth employees - from 95%+ in the spring to 65% in July
2/ Our contact tracing team (led by @DrLucyEHorton) found virutally all known exposures were in the household or community. Few @UCSDHealth employees (mediage age 39) required hospitalization, but each is out 10+ days, creating staffing challenges, as well as additional exposures
3/ Unpublished analysis of cases through 8/26 shows continued ↓ in vaccine effectiveness, with Pfizer at just 49% - one of the reasons that @UCSanDiego has an indoor masking mandate 😷
I had hoped to be done with these when I wrote the last one ~100 days ago, but the rate of positive #COVID19 tests @UCSDHealth is back to almost 4%, near the winter surge peak. So here we go again...🧵
2/ Fortunately, the number of patients hospitalized with #COVID19@UCSDHealth is still relatively low at 22, but the uptick is worrisome, particularly with @SanDiegoCounty hospitalizations >200 again for the first time since March
3/ Of course the most important reason we are not seeing more inpatients with #COVID19 is that some of these new cases are so-called breakthrough infections that are far less likely to be severe or require hospitalization
Read on for some thoughts about hospitalization numbers, vaccine timing, and the predicted baby bust 🚼
And two small rewards at the end... 🐕
2/ @UCSDHealth has hit a temporary equilibrium with census relatively stable ~7 days. Today we have 127 inpatients hospitalized for #COVID19 including 40 in the ICU, 31 on mechanical ventilators, and 7 on ECMO circuits
3/ @SanDiegoCounty hospitalization data shows a similar plateau with 1,591 inpatients across multiple hospitals today and a 7-day rolling average of 1,573 according to @HASDIC data