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Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
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Dec 29, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
Here is a brief summary for the PetroTal community that we did in April 2021. DM or email for full version.

#TAL #PTAL Image
2/ Message Image
3/ Production profile from our proprietary well by well model Image
4/ Recovery factors - give me a break CPR! Image
5/ Unit cost - they must improve in 2022 - no more excuses for high barging cost and diluent fees! ImageImage
6/ Cash Flows at 2P & $65 Brent ImageImage
7/ Production history in April 2021 Image
8/ Valuation: 2&3P at $65 and sensitivities ImageImageImageImage
9/9 why does opportunity exist… ImageImageImage

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More from @BurggrabenH

Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 31
The newsflow on Russian gas payments in past days remains confusing. My current interpretation of the situation and the status quo of the market...

1/n #TTF
On 23 March the Kremlin requested EU gas deliveries to be denominated in rubel. Putin said: “If these payments are not made [in rubel], we will consider it a failure of the buyer to fulfil its obligations, with all the ensuing consequences.”

2/n
 abcnews.go.com/International/…
Russia delivers 35% of EU gas of which 60% is paid for in € & rest in US$. Such are the contractual obligations. Therefore, all G-7 ministers agreed on Monday 28th that such a request would be "a one-sided & clear breach of the existing contracts.”

3/n
 ft.com/content/158ae4…
Read 12 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 18
It is called transition - not switch!

The oil market in 6 Tweets - rest is noise (I know, I like the rest too but it won’t matter for coming months).

1/n
#OOTT
Oil is an extractive industry. The industry needs to replace ONE North Sea each year (3mbpd) just to stay still (more in future due to base declines). That needs $600bn. Industry didn’t and does not invest it. Meanwhile demand is back at pre-Covid levels.

2/n
The world may draw another 2mbpd of liquids out of storage in 2022 (massive!) due to variety of factors - Russian sanction being a big one! And no, sanctions will not go away with a peace agreement. “West” will request check & balances after nuclear threads post VVP.

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Mar 14
I recommend reading the full “deal” to reopen Nickel trade at LME on Wednesday, 16 March.

I mean are u kidding me: $3.5bn trades canceled! The guy still short 150,000 tonnes! Refused to “be closed out”!? JPM agreeing not to increase margins etc…!

1/5 #Nickel
2/5
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Feb 2
Make, buy or buyback….?

In any extractive industry this is a revolving question for shareholder, boards & managers once stable cash flows & a strong balance sheet have been established.

🧵

1/n
Make (develop) has significant potential to create value (something out of nothing) but comes with significant delay between cash-outflows & returns (15+y) & at risk of total capital loss. Which is why the market does not reward it.

2/…
Take MMG & the Las Bambas project in #Peru. The market gave zero credit to MMG’s share price until the mine produced #copper. But it is true for the entire mining or resource SECTOR.

3/n
Read 7 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 27
$SQZ is rock solid: 58mboe 2P Res from 5 fields with soild maturity mix (Columbus); comes off milestone payments for BKR acqu.; N&S Egg growth pipe; UK lowest E&P tax rate ex US; access to services; conventional fields; top mgmt; zero EV in 2022?
GB 500p intrinsic value.

1/3 Image
Check out its potential cash flow profile (without growth capex for North & Egg) or potential well interventions for BKR in 2022 for, perhaps, $80m. FCF would be $537m. Deduct $50-80m and it may still be zero EV by year-end due to gas price futures curve. Insane!

2/3 Image
Here is the NBP gas price Future curve as of today. We modelled Serica below that to leave room for their 20% hedging which could be below that.

$SQZ is also a hedge against potential Ukraine disruption. Better than $IOG as proven fields;

3/3 Image
Read 5 tweets
Alexander Stahel 🇺🇦 Profile picture
Jan 17
EU gas: Right now & hear, #Gazprom uses gas export as political weapon. It books but does not use; bookings became useless indicator of what might flow in pipes. Latest: even NS flows reduce.

So far, EU compensated with warmer weather & LNG, as illustrated below.

1/4
Last month, Gazprom booked 21% of Mallnow’s (GER entry from PL) capacity for Jan, yet there have been no flows. In Dec, the company used daily pipe allocations for that route after opting against booking capacity for the whole month. Nor do Flows enter Poland (from BL).

2/4
On the Ukrainian route, some capacity was booked on Monday for gas shipments to Slovakia via Velke Kapusany border point for Feb. Yet, current flows through that station, even though an extra booking was also made for this month, are a fraction of contractual volumes. 

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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