"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations..." 1/
"... and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine." 2/
"Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force and..." 3/
"also end the dangerous Russian pursuit of a U.S.-Russian bilateral negotiation track to determine Ukraine’s fate without Ukrainians in the room." 4/
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

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More from @McFaul

2 Jan
Extraordinary statement by "President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö’s New Year’s Speech on 1 January 2022" presidentti.fi/en/speeches/pr… 1/ THREAD
Money line: "And let it be stated once again: Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide." 2/
"NATO’s business is the so-called Open Door policy, the continuance of which has been repeatedly confirmed to Finland, also publicly." 3/
Read 4 tweets
31 Dec 21
Read this thread. Guess who said all these nice, cooperative things about NATO? Guess when they were said? 1/. THREAD.
"My colleagues were not short of words to describe this [NATO] summit today, and this is probably no bad thing. I too used the term ‘historic’ to describe it, referring to the long way we have come... 2/
, shedding some of the illusions we perhaps had back in the 1990s, and entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in. 3/
Read 18 tweets
30 Dec 21
"Modernization theories, however, are bad at point predictions. Agency theories also deliver little predictive power about the specific moments of regime change...." 1/ THREAD
... since chance, fortuna, mistakes, or unexpected exogenous shocks (such as economic meltdown, war, or the death of a leader) always seem to play a major role in these models. 2/
Both structural and agency theoretical traditions shed only faint light on current regime stability or guidance about future change. 3/
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 21
"Russia remains a formidable military power and one of only two nuclear superpowers. Putin has invested heavily in nuclear modernization, while the United States has not." 1/ THREAD
"He [Putin] has also devoted vast resources to upgrading Russian conventional forces. The Kremlin’s armed forces do not have global reach, but they do pose a significant threat to Europe ... 2/
"... and even outmatch NATO by some measures, including the number of tanks, cruise missiles, and troops on the NATO-Russian border." 3/
Read 5 tweets
27 Dec 21
After 9/11/2001, Bush and Putin developed a close personal bond based on a shared definition of a common threat -- terrorism. US-Russia ties were close. The US withdrawal from the ABM treaty and NATO expansion faded as contentious issues. 1/
Bush's decision to invade Iraq fueled new tensions. Putin (like Germany, France & Obama) thought that intervention was a huge mistake. At their first meeting in 2009, Putin reminded Obama of that mistake. 2/
The real break in US-Russia relations in the Bush-era were color revolutions in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004, which Putin claimed were masterminded by Washington. 3/
Read 6 tweets
21 Dec 21
In between Putin's spring military build-up on Ukraine's border and today's bigger build-up, what changed? 1/ THREAD
Did NATO become more aggressive in offering Ukraine membership? No. 2/
Did Biden become more vocal in supporting Ukraine's NATO membership? No. Just the opposite. Zelensky was disappointed in what he heard from Biden about NATO when they met last summer. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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