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Michael McFaul Profile picture
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3 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations..." 1/
"... and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine." 2/
"Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force and..." 3/
"also end the dangerous Russian pursuit of a U.S.-Russian bilateral negotiation track to determine Ukraine’s fate without Ukrainians in the room." 4/
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

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More from @McFaul

Michael McFaul Profile picture
2 Jan
Extraordinary statement by "President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö’s New Year’s Speech on 1 January 2022" presidentti.fi/en/speeches/pr… 1/ THREAD
Money line: "And let it be stated once again: Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide." 2/
"NATO’s business is the so-called Open Door policy, the continuance of which has been repeatedly confirmed to Finland, also publicly." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
31 Dec 21
Read this thread. Guess who said all these nice, cooperative things about NATO? Guess when they were said? 1/. THREAD.
"My colleagues were not short of words to describe this [NATO] summit today, and this is probably no bad thing. I too used the term ‘historic’ to describe it, referring to the long way we have come... 2/
, shedding some of the illusions we perhaps had back in the 1990s, and entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in. 3/
Read 18 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
30 Dec 21
"Modernization theories, however, are bad at point predictions. Agency theories also deliver little predictive power about the specific moments of regime change...." 1/ THREAD
... since chance, fortuna, mistakes, or unexpected exogenous shocks (such as economic meltdown, war, or the death of a leader) always seem to play a major role in these models. 2/
Both structural and agency theoretical traditions shed only faint light on current regime stability or guidance about future change. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
30 Dec 21
"Russia remains a formidable military power and one of only two nuclear superpowers. Putin has invested heavily in nuclear modernization, while the United States has not." 1/ THREAD
"He [Putin] has also devoted vast resources to upgrading Russian conventional forces. The Kremlin’s armed forces do not have global reach, but they do pose a significant threat to Europe ... 2/
"... and even outmatch NATO by some measures, including the number of tanks, cruise missiles, and troops on the NATO-Russian border." 3/
Read 5 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
27 Dec 21
After 9/11/2001, Bush and Putin developed a close personal bond based on a shared definition of a common threat -- terrorism. US-Russia ties were close. The US withdrawal from the ABM treaty and NATO expansion faded as contentious issues. 1/
Bush's decision to invade Iraq fueled new tensions. Putin (like Germany, France & Obama) thought that intervention was a huge mistake. At their first meeting in 2009, Putin reminded Obama of that mistake. 2/
The real break in US-Russia relations in the Bush-era were color revolutions in Georgia in 2003 and Ukraine in 2004, which Putin claimed were masterminded by Washington. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
21 Dec 21
In between Putin's spring military build-up on Ukraine's border and today's bigger build-up, what changed? 1/ THREAD
Did NATO become more aggressive in offering Ukraine membership? No. 2/
Did Biden become more vocal in supporting Ukraine's NATO membership? No. Just the opposite. Zelensky was disappointed in what he heard from Biden about NATO when they met last summer. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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