Many are still unaware that many blonde women from Texas with names like Carol or Joanna fighting vaccines on Twitter are in reality some fellow called Boris, who, from a drab Soviet era building, runs dozens of such accounts using fake I.P. addresses in North Macedonia.
Disinformation doesn't work with big lies (high noise discredits the source).
Experts manipulate groups then spread memes, like the "cold winter" in 80s (from an illusory "paper" by the KGB who owned German anti-nuclear groups & played media scientist Karl Sagan like a violin).
3) Notes
a- Error: I meant "nuclear winter", not cold winter.
b- And, no North Macedonia has nothing to do with the Soviet Union; it's where the floating IPs are located (as well as, for some reason in Kossovo).
c- Trolls appear to have reading comprehension.(Low-skilled job.)
And the "troll farm" stuff has increased by > one order of magnitude since 2015.
nytimes.com/2015/06/07/mag…

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More from @nntaleb

6 Dec 21
VACCINE RISK
Even if vaccines have not been around for long, the sample for the Covid vaccines is so yuuuuge that we can already see what risks they don't have & proceed by elimination.
This is not a precise estimation but the framework to work with.
Incidentally, for the distribution of the minima, there is little difference between n= 1 billion and n= 5 billion!
Read 7 tweets
4 Dec 21
A single graph explains the effect of vaccines on mortality. The rest is statistical trickery.

[Unless past infected off by >1 order of magnitude.]

"Dan from Prague" @maircomm arguing w/Jordan Peterson who has the scientific rigor of a drunk astrologist.
2) This does not count the infections that were *avoided* by vaccines (conservatively estimated > 50%).

PS- I blocked Peterson 2 y ago when he invited me to do a podcast & didn't know much abt him. Went to his feed, listened to a podcast, was horrified, and blocked.
Fine print: (Clearly there is a possibility that the virus became suddenly 10x less deadly or that the old miraculously ceased to be infected in favor of the young or that the agencies are paid by Pharma to lie and other ad hoc arguments)
Read 6 tweets
9 Nov 21
"You'd rather impress your cardiologist than gym rats"

You need to be BOTH strong AND aerobically fit -it's not not either/or.

There are no RCS for both exercises jointly [only separately] but we know that strength training stiffens LV, aerobic reserse-remodels.

@DrDamluji
2) We humans are not made to specialize without costs. Doing "too much" aerobic is worse than the optimal level ["reasonably" fit but without too much hypertrophy], but still better than sedentary.
Being strong is a necessity. But there must be a similar optimum.
3) Rigorous longitudinal RCS: as we age, we need >> than the recommended 150 min/w. Add 90% MHR 1 day plus strength training 1 day, but much less than prof athletes.

Entire bandwidth: Utraslow walks + brisk + stairs/hikes/sprints as no 1 is a substitute.
Read 7 tweets
30 Oct 21
Friends, *Hyperinflation* seems to exist in the minds of noise-prone pple on Social Media than in the numbers.

1) COMMODITIES: The CRB is lower than it was in 2014 and waaaaay lower (50%) than 2007.

2) SHIPPING: The Baltic Dry Index is 60% *below* 2007.

Jst local disruptions.
2) So what we have to worry about is the asset price inflation resulting from low rates; these historically have collapsed at the first sign of tightening.

Vulnerable (by order): Cryptos, Residential Upper End Real Estate, Stocks, Residential RE, etc.
3) Lumber has been most sensitive because of real estate but it gave back almost ALL gains, at 2018 levels.

Read 4 tweets
16 Oct 21
Friends and CardioTwitter,
How can Heart Rate Variability (#HRV ) be informative if it moves intraday by 1 order of magnitude?
Another statistical problem: standard deviation must not be stochastic for standard metrics.
Is it so observation dependent?
Looks like HRV may contain *some* information in very long term trends but this shows you observe mostly noise.
No single observation has observation unless it is in the very far tail.
OK, OK
HRV data fits the Lognormal like a glove. A high variance Lornormal (Max=40 times Min!), so not good news. I would ignore the metric even if it seems to selectively fit some diagnosis of Covid or overtraining.
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep 21
Before we delve into the statistics in the paper, please note an R^2 of .03. It means more than 99% can be explained by randomness.
Please note that I have a technical blog, largely focused on uses and misuses of probability in #Medicine. But one can get some entertainments from psycholophasters.

fooledbyrandomnessdotcom.wordpress.com/2021/09/07/est…
Basically, Mr Grant, can you explain to us who you are bullshitting ?
Where is the class of people who buy this crap?

@AdamMGrant
cc:@marissa_sharif @cmogilner @HalHershfield
Read 5 tweets

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