Guys, B.1.640.2 isn’t new. It actually PREDATES Omicron. It's a sub-lineage of B.1.640- which caused some concern back in mid-November but couldn’t even compete with Delta. B.1.640.2 was first sequenced OVER a month ago and was officially recognized as a lineage in December.
As Tom points out, there haven’t been any new sequences uploaded since before Christmas and this variant has had a decent chance to cause issues but never really materialized. It’s been classified as a Variant Under Monitoring by WHO since November. Let’s focus on Omicron.
So, NO, it does not explain a spike of cases in Southern France as you might have heard from certain questionable sources and NO it hasn’t put hundreds of people in the ICU or hundreds of people on ventilators either.
Let’s focus on Omicron. Also, PLEASE be sure to consider YOUR SOURCES. If it reads like a tabloid (I will not cite the people nor the articles I am referring to) rather than a scientific journal or a reputable source, DISREGARD it. That’s how misinformation circulates. Thank you.
If you’re having an issue seeing some tweets because Twitter is being funny with QRTs these are from this thread citing posts from @PeacockFlu and @wanderer_jasnah.
Per @PeacockFlu the first upload of B.1.640.2 onto GISAID was on November 4, 2021 from Paris by Roquebert, et al., and the first upload of Omicron was almost 3 weeks later on November 22, 2021 from HK by Alan, et al. gisaid.org
Again, PLEASE be sure to consider YOUR SOURCES. If it reads like a tabloid rather than a scientific journal or a reputable source, DISREGARD it. That’s how misinformation circulates. Thank you.
If you are seeing “Tweet Unavailable” anywhere it is because QRTs weren’t showing up. These are the posts. Sorry about that!
If needed, for France. H/T: @maestro_hell. Per @PeacockFlu, total of 21 sequences over 2.5 months. Sequences or clusters may continue to appear but as anyone can see, zero sign this variant is currently taking off. nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/eu…
For those asking, yes, this is the one being referred to as the “IHU Variant.”
“The World Health Organization said a coronavirus variant found in France hasn’t become much of a threat since it was first identified in November.”bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
“In the United States, mortality trends typically trail case trends by about three weeks- which means the Omicron surge, which began more than a month ago, should be visible in the death counts. It isn’t yet.”
Let’s talk about that. 🧵
NOTE: Source for ALL the information above AND in this thread can be found here. I highly recommend David Leonhardt’s “The Morning” Newsletter.
•nytimes.com/2022/01/05/bri…
“The details of the Omicron variant are becoming clearer, and they are encouraging. They’re not entirely encouraging, and I will get into some detail about one of the biggest problems- the stress on hospitals, which are facing huge numbers of moderately ill COVID-19 patients.”
A CWRU School of Medicine study of 577,938 pediatric and adult patients shows first time SARS-CoV-2 infections occurring at a time when Omicron was rapidly spreading were associated with significantly less severe outcomes than first time infections when Delta predominated. 🧵
It is IMPORTANT to note severity of disease in humans is NOT determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection. Make sure you are PROTECTED. Source for the information above can be found here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… PLEASE NOTE.
Currently, data on the severity of the disease caused by the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant has been limited. Here, researchers compared 3-day risks of emergency department (ED) visit, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, & mechanical ventilation
“Breakthrough” infections DO NOT mean vaccines don’t work. Remember, they are preventives, NOT cures. One can still contract COVID once vaccinated. As long as that vaccine is preventing you from facing severe disease and worse, it IS working and doing what it was designed to do.
The term infection refers to the virus entering and being detectable in your system regardless of whether OR NOT it makes you sick, whereas the term illness refers to the virus entering, being detectable in your system AND making you sick. It it important not to conflate the two.
The first thing to know about the COVID-19 vaccines is that they’re doing exactly what they were designed and authorized to do. Since the vaccines first started their rollout late last year, rates of COVID-19 disease have taken an unprecedented plunge among the immunized.
@_almond_tree May I make a suggestion. This isn’t new. The preprint just got uploaded like two days ago but that’s it. If anyone does a Google search they’ll see this pops up as early as October/November deseret.com/coronavirus/20… and hasn’t done much. Omicron kinda blew this out of the water.
@_almond_tree This has been under monitoring with B.1.640 being first detected in September 2021. ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/va…. I know everyone is looking for the “next big thing” but context is important. The preprint just got uploaded on 12/29 which is why some people think it’s “new.”
@_almond_tree I mean, it didn’t even get to spread far due to Delta. Now with Omicron, if this variant couldn’t stand to Delta it likely wouldn’t be able to against Omicron either. Again, it’s been under monitoring, that’s it.
Encouraging news out of South Africa. Study data has suggested South Africa’s Omicron peak has indeed passed with NO major spike in deaths OR hospitalizations.
The study looked at the rate at which the fourth surge in cases progressed in the South African city of Tshwane, which researchers described as the "global epicentre" of the Omicron wave.
Researchers looked at hospital records from a Tshwane hospital system and compared them to prior surges. Based on their analysis, the omicron wave "spread and declined in the City of Tshwane with unprecedented speed peaking within 4 weeks of its commencement."
Them: Is there any other vaccine in history that required three doses in a year and yet still didn’t prevent transmission of the virus it was meant to protect against?
Me: Your childhood vaccinations would like a word with you.
Before I forget, reminder that your TDap: Tetanus-Diphtheria-Pertussis (every 10 years) are technically a repetitive vaccine series or rather boosters during adulthood. HPV is another vaccine that could fit here as well.
“Even the measles vaccine, which is incredibly effective, fails to protect about 3% of vaccinated individuals who are exposed to the virus. Jonas Salk's polio vaccine-hailed a medical miracle- was 80% to 90% effective at preventing paralysis caused by the polio virus.”