Thread by @sailorrooscout

“In the United States, mortality trends typically trail case trends by about three weeks- which means the Omicron surge, which began more than a month ago, should be visible in the death counts. It isn’t yet.”

Let’s talk about that. 🧵

NOTE: Source for ALL the information above AND in this thread can be found here. I highly recommend David Leonhardt’s “The Morning” Newsletter.
•nytimes.com/2022/01/05/bri…

“The details of the Omicron variant are becoming clearer, and they are encouraging. They’re not entirely encouraging, and I will get into some detail about one of the biggest problems- the stress on hospitals, which are facing huge numbers of moderately ill COVID-19 patients.”

“So I want to be clear: The latest evidence about COVID is largely positive. A few weeks ago, many experts and journalists were warning that the initial evidence from South Africa- suggesting that Omicron was milder than other variants-might turn out to be a mirage.

It has turned out to be real.” nytimes.com/2021/11/29/bri…. In hospitals around the country, doctors are taking notice. “This wave of COVID seems different from the last one.” nytimes.com/2022/01/04/hea….

“There are at least three main ways that Omicron looks substantially milder than other versions of the virus:

1. Less Hospitalization: Somebody infected with Omicron is less likely to need hospital treatment than somebody infected with an earlier version of COVID.

“An analysis of patients in Houston found that Omicron patients were only about one-third as likely to need hospitalization as Delta patients. In Britain, people with Omicron were about half as likely to require hospital care, the government reported.”

https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1478015017983303680?s=21

Hospitalizations are nonetheless rising in the U.S., because Omicron is so contagious that it has led to an explosion of cases. Many hospitals are running short of beds and staff, partly because of COVID-related absences. In MD, more people are hospitalized with COVID than ever.”

"We have 92% of our state vaccinated- but we have overflowing hospitals. So, that 8% of the population who has not been vaccinated is responsible for 75% of all the people that are filling up our COVID beds in the hospital." -Maryland Governor Larry Hogan cnn.com/videos/politic…

“Thankfully the COVID patients aren’t as sick. But there’s so many of them,” Craig Spencer, an emergency room doctor in New York, tweeted on Monday, after a long shift. “The next few weeks will be really, really tough for us.”

https://twitter.com/craig_a_spencer/status/1478217081959108614?s=21

2. Milder hospitalization: “Omicron is not just less likely to send somebody to the hospital. Even among people who need hospital care, symptoms are milder on average than among people who were hospitalized in previous waves.”

A crucial reason appears to be that Omicron does not attack the lungs as earlier versions of Covid did. Omicron instead tends to be focused in the nose and throat, causing fewer patients to have breathing problems or need a ventilator.” nytimes.com/2021/12/31/hea…

“In London, the number of patients on ventilators has remained roughly constant in recent weeks, even as the number of cases has soared, John Burn-Murdoch of The Financial Times noted.” ft.com/content/d07f45…

3. Deaths: The increase in deaths is unlikely to be anywhere near as large as the increase last summer, during the Delta wave. Look at the data from South Africa, where the Omicron wave is already receding. Bottom line? Make sure you’re protected. Don’t walk around immune naive.