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Rob Lee Profile picture
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3 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
2022 Russian arms export thread. Photos of Project 11356 frigates, the Tushil and Tamala, under construction at Russia’s Yantar Shipyard in Kaliningrad for the Indian Navy.
t.me/bmpd_cast/10147 ImageImage
My thread on Russian arms export news for 2021. 2/
The PLA has reportedly received new Mi-171Sh helicopters from Russia’s Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant. 3/
t.me/ChDambiev/12649 ImageImage
Video of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić inspecting newly delivered Kornet-EM ATGM from Russia. 4/

tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…

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Rob Lee Profile picture
5 Jan
If Russia were normally to deploy military forces to Kazakhstan, we would expect to see units from the Central Military District's 41st Combined Arms Army based in Siberia and the Urals, which is almost completely deployed near Ukraine and Belarus right now.
Russia still has plenty of units that it can deploy if necessary, but you wouldn't want to start a conflict with Ukraine right now while the situation in Kazakhstan is so uncertain. Wars are inherently unpredictable, and Russia's situation just became more complex. 2/
I think Russia was pretty well prepared for an escalation with Ukraine. Its economy is pretty strong right now with record-high currency reserves, and the likelihood of mass protests is unlikely given Russia's efforts to jail or undermine its opposition. This could change that.3/
Read 17 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
3 Jan
2022 Russian Armed Forces procurement thread. The Russian MoD said the Ground Forces will receive more than 400 pieces of equipment in 2022, including T-72B3M, T-80BVM, and T-90M tanks, BMP-2M with Berezhok turrets and BMP-3 IFVs, and BTR-82A APCs.
function.mil.ru/news_page/coun…
The Russian MoD said the same thing about the Ground Forces procurement in 2021 (thread on its details below). 2/
tass.com/defense/1383625
Izvestia reports the Baltic Fleet's 4th Naval Attack Aviation Regiment based in Kaliningrad will be rearmed with modernized Su-30SM2 fighters this year. 3/
iz.ru/1270981/roman-…
Read 7 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
30 Dec 21
A better explanation is that Russia realizes that Ukraine will be a long-term hostile neighbor, is determined to retake the Donbas, is arming itself for that purpose, and it is better to act now before Kyiv has greater conventional deterrence (can target Russian cities/bases)
Ukraine is a national security threat that pins down much of the Russian Ground Forces needed to defend the Donbas. Either Russia will try to force changes to Ukraine's constitution/political orientation or force NATO to stop strengthening its military to "solve" that threat. 2/
A Russian military operation would be much more costly if Ukraine has cruise and ballistic missiles that could target important Russian bases and cities, and future Russian coercion efforts would be weaker if Ukraine had those kind of capabilities. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
29 Dec 21
Multiple Russian Navy officials, Captains, and officials from Electropribor have been accused of embezzling 692.7 million rubles ($9.35 million) from the state defense order from 2013-2016 from funds for upgrading the weapons of Northern Fleet ships.
kommersant.ru/doc/5153456
They are also accused of destroying evidence and pressuring witnesses. 2 of the defendants, a retired Navy Captain and advisor to Rosoboronexport, and the head of the Navy's Missile and Artillery Armament Development and Operation Service, are under house arrest. 2/
Investigators from the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department said the accused communicated on their phones with a foreign app that allowed them to delete their conversations, which sounds like Signal. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
22 Dec 21
Thread on yesterday's Expanded Meeting of the Defense Ministry Board.
Putin: "work continued on the modernization of the Army and Navy on a grand scale. Consequently, the share of modern weapons exceeded 71 percent in the troops and 89 percent in the strategic nuclear forces."
Thread from last year's Expanded Meeting of the Russian Defense Ministry Board. 2/
Putin: We continued to actively develop cutting-edge weapons systems. Some of them,...Avangard and Kinzhal, have been put on combat duty. The Navy accomplished a wide range of tasks. Russian ships and submarines constantly patrolled all important sectors of the world’s oceans. 3/
Read 32 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
22 Dec 21
Good thread by Mike, but I respectfully disagree. Below is my explanation of the spring buildup. When we consider what happened over the summer, it is clear that the spring demonstration didn't achieve Russia's objectives, and the current activity is likely a final warning.
Events after the Putin-Biden summit:
-HMS Defender incident
-UK-UKR £1.7 B naval agreement
-Continued US arms deliveries (additional $60 M announced in Aug-Sep)
-US-Ukraine Strategic Defense Framework
-Continued Turkish-Ukrainian defense cooperation
-TB2 strike in the Donbas
2/
The totality of these events (the TB2 strike was a surprise), as well as continued NATO naval/aviation presence in the Black Sea, was too much for Moscow, and they wanted to stop further "creeping" NATO defense support for Ukraine before Kyiv received long-range weapons. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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