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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
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5 Jan, 6 tweets, 3 min read
There are few things that have been more foundational to current DC conventional wisdom than redistricting was going to be a disaster for Ds, hand the House to the Rs.

Turns out that hot take was wrong. '22 map will be far better for Dems than CW held. 1/
cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
As a veteran of many election cycles here in DC, it is my professional opinion than when it comes to the 2022 elections I would rather be us than them.

Rs have doubled down on MAGA, a politics the country rejected in the last 2 elections. 2/

ndn.org/3-reasons-why-…
On most issues which will matter to the 2022 battleground - COVID, our democracy, health care, climate, choice - the GOP is way out of the mainstream, not competitive.

Just not going to be easy to sell a party of insurrectionists to suburban voters. 3/

ndn.org/saliency-index…
The issue where Rs have an advantage - the economy - is something Dems should be able to take away.

2021 was a big year for growth, jobs, new business formation, wages, one of the best in modern times.

Biden/Dems have strong record to sell in 2022. 4/

ndn.org/america%E2%80%…
Highest political comms priority for Dems is establishing basic contrast between repeated D success in managing the economy, repeated R failure.

95% of all jobs created since 1989 have come under Dem Presidents. Should not be losing this argument. 5/5

ndn.org/blog/2021/12/4…
This story is why no one should count out the Democrats in 2022 - MAGA/GOP manifestly unfit, cannot be trusted with power. 6/6

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
7 Jan
It's #JobsReport day so time to update our jobs tracker.

The topline:

34m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton Obama
6.2m jobs = 11 months Biden
2m jobs = 16 years 2 Bushes Trump

Already 3 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents, COMBINED. 1/ Image
Breaking it down by month, jobs have been created at more than 50 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Biden = 565k/month
Clinton/Obama = 176k/month
Bushes/Trump = 10k/month

Incredibly, GOPers saw only 10k jobs created per month over 16 years. 2/ Image
During what has been one of the best years for the American economy in modern history, the unemployment rate has come down 2.4 pts, down now to a very low 3.9%.

In contrast the last 3 GOP Presidents all brought recessions, and rising unemployment rates. 3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
13 Dec 21
The organizing event on Jan 6th was called the "Save America March." We all need to sit on that a bit.

It was a march from the White House to Congress to "save America." What other possible action could they be taking to "save America" other than stopping the vote count? 1/
Trump's formal call to arms to his supporters was made in an official speech from the White House on July 4, 2020, a speech that deserves far more attention than it has gotten. 2/

simon-rosenberg.medium.com/republicans-ha…
The key passage:

“American heroes defeated the Nazis, dethroned the fascists, toppled the communists, saved American values...chased down the terrorists to the very ends of the earth. We are now in the process of defeating the radical left, the Marxists, the anarchists....3/
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
3 Dec 21
My headline for today:

“3 times as many jobs created in Biden’s first ten months as were created under last 3 GOP Presidents, combined”
OK, kicking off our monthly thread which shows how much better Dems have been for US economy over past 3 decades. 2 stats:

95% of all jobs created since 1989 have come under Dem Presidents

3 times as many jobs have been created under Biden than last 3 GOP Presidents, combined
The last 3 Republican Presidents brought recessions and rising unemployment rates.

The last 3 Dem Presidents have brought growth, rising wages, lower unemployment rates.
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
12 Nov 21
1/So every 2 weeks when @NavigatorSurvey drops its data, I create something I call a "Saliency Index" using their top 4 most important issue question.

The index takes the data and projects what it looks like for our likely voters in swing district/state.

navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/upl…
2/Here it is:

COVID 59%
Economy/Jobs 57%
Health Care 42%
Climate/Extreme Weather 34%
Soc Sec/Medicare 33%
Inflation 27%
Govt Corruption 23%
Immigration 21%
Nat Security 19%
Violent Crime 17%
Afghanistan 11%
Abortion 11%
3/My model is 80% D, 15%I, 5% R which is what the composition of the electorate who votes for a Democratic candidate in a swing state/district might look like.

Goal here is to help us understand where the head is at of the voters we need to talk too.
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
9 Nov 21
It is time now for Dems to shift their strategy from selling things which have not yet happened to the things which have - ARP, COVID, recovery.

If we can’t get credit for things we’ve done we won’t for things we haven’t.

2022 will be about whether we led US into recovery.
If Democrats cannot credit for our core promise to voters in 2020 - defeating COVID, securing the recovery - we will not get credit for passing bills whose impacts will not be felt for years.
Best way to sell BBB and infrastructure is by defeating COVID and securing the recovery, and explaining and getting credit for it. That is job #1.

Don’t think there’s any politics/comms rn outside COVID/recovery frame.

FFS COVID may be most disruptive thing to hit US ever.
Read 7 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
5 Nov 21
Here are some graphs with the new jobs numbers factored in, once again showing just how much better Biden and Democrats have been as stewards of the American economy over the past 30 years. 1/
In just 9 months Biden has seen three times as many jobs created on his watch as were created during the last 3 GOP Presidencies, COMBINED.

Obama Clinton 33.8m jobs
Biden 5.6m jobs
2 Bushes, Trump 1.9m jobs
Breaking it down by month, its

Biden 620,000
Clinton Obama 176,000
2 Bushes Trump 9700

Yes that's Biden at 60x times job growth rate than last 3 GOP Presidents, and yes that's 10,000 a month for Rs.
Read 6 tweets

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