Thread by @SimonWDC

1/So every 2 weeks when @NavigatorSurvey drops its data, I create something I call a "Saliency Index" using their top 4 most important issue question.

The index takes the data and projects what it looks like for our likely voters in swing district/state.

navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/upl…

2/Here it is:

COVID 59%
Economy/Jobs 57%
Health Care 42%
Climate/Extreme Weather 34%
Soc Sec/Medicare 33%
Inflation 27%
Govt Corruption 23%
Immigration 21%
Nat Security 19%
Violent Crime 17%
Afghanistan 11%
Abortion 11%

3/My model is 80% D, 15%I, 5% R which is what the composition of the electorate who votes for a Democratic candidate in a swing state/district might look like.

Goal here is to help us understand where the head is at of the voters we need to talk too.

4/As I write in this memo we've paid for too much attention this cycle to the "popularity" of an issue, data which tells you very little if you don't understand its relative import to other issues.

Something can be "popular" and unimportant to voters. ndn.org/fall-to-do-list

5/The saliency of issues, their importance, is a roadmap for our politics. It tells us where voters want us to be.

And refusing to be there can cause a backlash. Part of reason Biden has dropped in recent months.

Our voters want us focused on COVID.

ndn.org/time-for-dems-…

6/Two other things of note:

Climate/extreme weather really matters to our voters

Inflation remains a secondary concern to our voters.

7/Lets look at how different top 5 priorities are of all voters vs Dem voters:

All voters:
Econ/Jobs
COVID
Inflation
Immigration
Health Care

Dem voters:
COVID
Econ/Jobs
Climate/Extreme Weather
Health Care
Soc Sec/Medicare

It's a big difference, very different mental map.

8/Have come to really rely on @NavigatorSurvey. Very good stuff.

But hey @JesseFFerguson think you need to add “debts/deficits” to your list of priorities, and “abortion” needs be recast as “women’s reproductive health” or something similar. Matters in 2022.

But great work!