There is a humanitarian crisis in Ethiopia an acute one. Millions of traumatized people 100s of thousands of dead child soldiers. Caused by a violent war of secession. There is a chance for peace, but the obstacle is not the way repatriated Tigray refugees are being treated.
The main problem is that the TPLF declared a ceasefire as the Western world went to sleep for Christmas, and promptly attacked Afar. And now they are attacking again in the West.
Saudi Arabia is an ally of Egypt, which is quite possibly supporting the TPLF. 10s of thousands of Ethiopians are in detention in Saudi, after working as domestic slaves they are now being treated disgracefully in detention centers.
As there is a war; as thousands of people are arriving back from Saudi Arabia as refugees; and as the TPLF is known to be using infiltration and uprisings as an insurgency tactic:
If Tigrayans are being profiled and detained it is possible there is a justification for this.
And I say "if" because I do not believe @HRW anymore, about anything.
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The leading edge of the next monsoon charged atmospheric river has arrived in the Middle East and the next phase of unusual possibly extreme winter weather in the region is about to commence.
The GFS 16-day rain forecast predicts a very similar amount of rain to the last major phase in this extended period of intense #ArabianStorms which finished 2 days ago.
For a recap of what has happened so far, this thread from this morning looks at the period 17 December to today, and tracks the Atlantic-Amazon sourced atmospheric river involved in all this all the way to China.
Daily rain intensity measures show where rain fell each day.
1. Along the bottom the monsoon atmospheric river moves West. 2. Over the Atlantic storms produce atmospheric moisture. 3. This travels ENE over the Sahara to the Middle East
@NASA This animation looks at the next segment in water transport - same time period - over the Indian Ocean and Eurasia to China. Again the monsoon is moving in the opposite direction.
It is remarkably how shallow the angle is of the atmospheric rivers which are moving ENE.
This cloud pattern is exquisite.
Hundreds of small thunderstorms, all in a line over the great forest of Africa, all producing a stream of atmospheric water of heading towards a great river over the Sahel.
Those are lakes Albert and Victoria bottom right. The large cloudless area is also unusual. Probably a localised fairly large high pressure system of some kind.
Research thread into David M Satterfield - who has been reported to be replacing Jeffrey Feltman as Envoy to the Horn of Africa. See... en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_M._…
Please add and annotate relevant info in this thread.
With all due respect, Satterfield does have deep experience in the Horn, via his lengthy engagement with Egypt. His lengthy role in the Multinational Sinai Force means he likely had deep connections there, military and intel.
Feltman and Satterfield’s specialist areas of diplomacy are the Middle East, not the Horn. It appears that African specialists in @StateDept don’t have sufficient stature for this role.
The difference between the two is that Satterfield is more tied into Military and Intel.
The FP piece mentioned about envoy’s is definitely relevant, but I think the conclusion is wrong. The Satterfield appointment indicates if anything that Langley and the DoD have muscled their way in. foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/06/spe…
Also there is some new Jeffrey Feltman news, he is about to leave it seems, according to this report from Swiss Info. From Reuters reporter @humeyra_pamuk swissinfo.ch/eng/exclusive-…
@humeyra_pamuk Satterfield previously served as the Charge D'Affairs to Egypt (not mentioned in the Reuters Story) and was confirmed to his role as Turkey Ambassador in June 2019, after being nominated by @SecPompeo.