I remember writing foreign policy transition documents for our new Obama government. One can plan in isolation all you want. But other people and governments get a vote. 1/
The key to a successful foreign policy is not only what you aspire to do but how well you adjust your plans when, as mom likes to say, "shit happens." 2/
A year ago, Biden and team aspired to increase focus on China, reduce focus on the greater Middle East, and maintain the SQ on Russia. It was a good plan. Generally, I supported it. 3/
But the Taliban had their own plans. Putin had his own plans. The Ukrainians had their own plans. And now some people in Kazakhstan have their own plans. None of these plans have synched up nicely with Biden's plans from a year ago. 4/
So now Biden has to adjust. Just like Bush had to do after 9/11/2001. Just like Obama had to do after the Arab Spring, Putin's return to the Kremlin in 2012, popular demonstrations in Russia in 2011-2012, and again in Ukraine in 2013-2104. 5/
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