Final installment, Part 3 of Assessing Domestic Extremism A Year After #Jan6 "Where Is Domestic Terrorism Headed In 2022?" clintwatts.substack.com/p/where-is-dom…
Several scenarios to worry about in 2022. Namely that an office holder at state/ local level does not respect the outcome of confirmed vote tallies, interferes with voting/counting, claims they won when they did not and refuses to leave office.
This would set off a chain reaction if protests/counter protests with high probability of violence
Separately, calls for violence online highest I've ever seen, daily threats against election officials, workers & candidates. A stochastic attack targeting local candidates/officials more likely than not, a Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords type scenario
officials should seek to avoid impending disasters preparing/rehearsing response now to: 1- Intimidation with weapons at campaign events/polling places, 2- Newly formed voter integrity groups creating confrontations, 3- official/candidate member of or working with extremist group

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More from @selectedwisdom

5 Jan
Part 2 of Assessing Domestic Extremism A Year After #January6 "Where Has Online Extremism Moved Over The Past Year?" clintwatts.substack.com/p/where-has-on…
Some takeaways in online DOMEX over last year. 1 - Telegram new home for many extremist collectives 2 - Gab substitute for FB/Twitter, 3 - smaller platform worry about is GETTR (Threats violence)
Preferences for extremists on social media mirror rest of society to a degree. Younger generation quicker adapt to newer, more advanced tech platforms. Older generation extremists want something like Facebook.
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec 21
.@MiburoSolutions @_NickMonaco released a 6 part series on China's continued employment of cross-platform, social media, disinformation campaigns. CCP seeks to re-write history on western social media, check out the campaign in this thread. 1/6 miburo.substack.com/p/spamouflage-…
Read 6 tweets
7 Dec 21
As a reminder, this is the entire point of Russian Active Measures. For the Kremlin, it has clearly worked. 🇺🇸 has disabled 🇺🇸. “Win through the force of politics, rather than the politics of force”
From the start, Russia's active measures campaigns have sought to elevate outsized voices in U.S. politics that can advance Kremlin goals. warontherocks.com/2016/11/trolli…
7 years later, Fox news is broadcast on Russian news & Putin is backed over the U.S. President on nighttime television. nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 21
20 Years After #September11th thankful for opportunity @USArmy @FBI @CTCWP to work with amazing Americans & allies tracking down terrorists behind 9/11 & their spawn. I learned so much serving alongside the best people I've ever met in pursuit of the worst people on the planet.
#September11 attacks changed course of my life like many other Americans, I’ve learned a lot, but in my work and travels in the 'War on Terror', online and in the real world, I’ve arrived at no hot takes, no definitive conclusions, no exact theories or absolutes.
There will always be terrorists & America will always need to counter them. Some will hide in Afghanistan, some will be in your neighborhood. Thanks to all who continue to serve and protect all Americans against future terrorists attacks.
Read 4 tweets
26 Aug 21
As we see this first VBIED attack at Kabul airport, things to watch for to understand terrorists strength is frequency, pace & synchronization of attacks. If we see more tomorrow, shorter times between attacks, points to significant terrorist capability in Kabul #Afghanistan
This would be a significant negative indicator for viability of Kabul Airport as an extraction point
U.S. operating from airport for about 10 days, take ISIS-K, terror groups time to get in position, prep, move IED's etc. if pace, synchronization continues = bad. No CT resistance, all forces tied up with extraction, ground ops dangerous, air targeting in urban environment = no
Read 6 tweets
26 Aug 21
For those confused on ISIS-K why they’d want to attack US & Taliban, lots of intricacies but short, summary version - Taliban aligned to Al Qaeda remnants (Haqqani Network, etc), ISIS rivals of al Qaeda, biggest difference between ISIS and al Qaeda is generational
ISIS-K operates against both US and Taliban-Al Qaeda, would like to hurt both. al Qaeda, older, more ideas first, violence to support. ISIS younger, more violence first, ideas later. (Simplified, there are many books about this)
.@dbyman does great work on these differences and here’s one of his explainers google.com/amp/s/www.broo…
Read 8 tweets

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