The ICU admissions and deaths reported today correspond to cases contracted at the time points indicated in red on this case curve.
Hospitalizations:
Total people in people with COVID-19 has just passed Wave 1 peak
New hospital admissions/day blew past Wave 1 peak a few days ago.
ICU admissions:
Total people in ICU just about to pass Wave 2 peak. Remember, ICU is about 1 week behind hospitalizations, so where hospitalization are now is where ICU will be in 1 week.
New ICU admissions about to pass Wave 1 peak.
Deaths:
Currently higher than peak of Wave 3.
Remember, what we're seeing now is from cases contracted 4-5 weeks ago, and that deaths have a long right tail (people who die after the usual 4-5 week period).
Thank you @covid_canada for the data collation and visualization.
You can now report rapid test results at their website.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Something many Canadians don't realize is that we're going through the Omicron wave at the same time or even slightly before the UK--the country we compare ourselves to most.
The UK tests a lot more than Canada per capita BTW, which is why our % test positivity is higher.
Canada is also seeing considerably more ICU admissions per capita than the UK in the Omicron wave, and our per capita ICU admissions are shooting up, whereas UK ICU admissions have been staying relative stable.
In Canada, we should be very careful about assuming we're same as UK
One possible reason for difference in ICU admissions between Canada and UK is boosters.
Media, you won't be able to attend this meeting (strategy), but if we decide to do press conference tomorrow morning we'll post info about it on Twitter this evening after the meeting.
Members of general public, we need to keep the group a manageable size (I'm really sorry).
Elected and non-elected officials welcome to participate. Our focus is not on attributing blame, but on very quickly developing a plan and communication strategy to advocate for action. This is a CONSTRUCTIVE meeting.
🔵9% Cdn pop infected Nov 15-Jan 4
🔵Omicron fatality, ICU admit rates 50% Delta, hosp rates 70% Delta
🔵2, 3, 4 week lag: hosp, ICU, death
We'd expect 420 deaths, 540 ICU admission, 6,100 hosp's for this period.
Reported: 1,063 deaths, 1,679 ICU, 6,999 hosp
This is based on Cdn pop age structure, age-specific vax rates, IFRs.
If Omicron causes 50% less deaths than Delta the expected national mortality rate is 0.1848, assuming there has been NO Omicron reduction in the 90% protection vs death provided by vaccines.
If Omicron causes 50% fewer ICU admissions than Delta the expected national ICU admission rate is 0.1540, based on current vaccine efficacy vs ICU admission for Omicron reported by @COVIDSciOntario