Something many Canadians don't realize is that we're going through the Omicron wave at the same time or even slightly before the UK--the country we compare ourselves to most.
The UK tests a lot more than Canada per capita BTW, which is why our % test positivity is higher.
The UK tests a lot more than Canada per capita BTW, which is why our % test positivity is higher.
Canada is also seeing considerably more ICU admissions per capita than the UK in the Omicron wave, and our per capita ICU admissions are shooting up, whereas UK ICU admissions have been staying relative stable.
In Canada, we should be very careful about assuming we're same as UK
In Canada, we should be very careful about assuming we're same as UK
One possible reason for difference in ICU admissions between Canada and UK is boosters.
Current @COVIDSciOntario data for Ontario are starting to show a turn around in vaccine protection against any infection.
This may be a booster effect, but could also be prioritized testing in symptomatic, high risk grps.
Reducing % of total pop infected can have big impacts.
This may be a booster effect, but could also be prioritized testing in symptomatic, high risk grps.
Reducing % of total pop infected can have big impacts.
@COVIDSciOntario But...
Protection of vaccines vs hospitalization continues to fall (although fall is finally slowing).
Vax protection vs ICU admission is also falling, though more slowly. It's about 1 wk behind hospitalization. Hopefully it will hit lowest point in 1-2 wks then stabilize/turn.
Protection of vaccines vs hospitalization continues to fall (although fall is finally slowing).
Vax protection vs ICU admission is also falling, though more slowly. It's about 1 wk behind hospitalization. Hopefully it will hit lowest point in 1-2 wks then stabilize/turn.
@COVIDSciOntario Take home:
Everyone 40+ get your booster as soon as you're eligible.
And if you're younger, have found a booster and know someone 40+ who needs it, give them the slot.
Urgently prioritize helping anyone 50+ get their booster. It will almost certain save lives.
Everyone 40+ get your booster as soon as you're eligible.
And if you're younger, have found a booster and know someone 40+ who needs it, give them the slot.
Urgently prioritize helping anyone 50+ get their booster. It will almost certain save lives.
Finally, with current improvements in vaccine protection vs any infection reported by @COVIDSciOntario estimated future deaths, ICU admissions, hospitalizations have fallen somewhat.
@COVIDSciOntario When "correcting" final numbers for previous severe outcomes, I'm also now assuming that 50% of these outcomes were not reported/not identified in Canada outside Quebec, so some of numbers for those regions have come down a bit.
@COVIDSciOntario Current estimates, adjusted to today's vax efficacy vs hospitalizations, ICU admissions reported by @COVIDSciOntario. Note, I assume vax still provides 90% protection vs death.
Canada: 328K hospitalizations, 61K ICU admissions, 67K deaths
Likely 40K deaths will be reported.
Canada: 328K hospitalizations, 61K ICU admissions, 67K deaths
Likely 40K deaths will be reported.
@COVIDSciOntario Sheet with current data here.
Hoping to god Quebec starts releasing vaccine efficacy estimates vs ICU admission soon, although it's still too soon to know for deaths.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Hoping to god Quebec starts releasing vaccine efficacy estimates vs ICU admission soon, although it's still too soon to know for deaths.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
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