.@NateSilver538 just literally compared a year of remote learning to nearly half a million people being killed.
Does he have any children? I do. He hated remote learning but not once did he or I ever think “man, I’d kill 460,000 people just to get back to in-person learning!”
There was a time when, as a data wonk, I considered him to be a role model. Back in 2014 when I got my 15 minutes of fame for my ACA data tracking, a few folks referred to me as "the Nate Silver of Obamacare" and I was embarrassed because I didn't think I was worthy.
I've never mentioned this publicly, but in early 2014 when Silver left the NY Times & relaunched 538, he put out a call for data wonks interested in writing for the site. I was starting to get some buzz for my ACA work so I figured what the hell & thew my hat in the ring. 1/
I never heard back from anyone at 538 for several months, and quickly became overwhelmed with the insanity of that first ACA Open Enrollment Period (trust me, it was nuts) and kind of forgot about it... 2/
Then, on March 26, Paul Krugman posted his entry which favorably contrasted my work with Silver's.
2 days later, out of the blue, I received an email from someone at 538 saying they were interested in my writing a piece for them about the impending Open Enrollment deadline. 3/
If I had received that email 3 days earlier, I probably would have jumped at the opportunity...but to be shrugged off for months and then suddenly contacted immediately after that column ran felt...off. Maybe it was coincidence but it just didn't feel right. 4/
And so, I turned down the opportunity to write for 538. I've never submitted anything since and they've never asked me to do so.
While there are plenty of good writers/analysts at 538, almost 8 years later, I'm confident this was the right decision for me at the time.
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Yes, both the R^2 & slope are now over 0.5 for the first time.
These graphs are actually more depressing in a way: Note how all 3 leveled off from around September - November, then started increasing again right after Thanksgiving?
Yeah, that was the same point that 5-11 yr olds started getting their 2nd vaccination shots.
(sigh) Over 7,500 people have "liked" her first tweet and over 1,200 have shared her misinformation. Worse yet, she's apparently an MD.
It's time once again for...The Three-Legged Stool®!
I can't believe I have to explain this over 10 years later, but under the Patient Protection & Affordable Care Act (the #ACA), INSURANCE CARRIERS CAN'T CHARGE HIGHER PREMIUMS TO PEOPLE BASED ON THEIR MEDICAL OR HEALTH CONDITIONS.
Here's how the #ACA's "3-legged stool" was designed (it's gone through a few changes over the years, most notably the federal individual mandate penalty being cut off & replaced with the World's Most Expensive Shim®):
🚨📣🧵 During the 2020 election cycle I raised $6 million (yes, that's right) to help save democracy & decency. In 2022 we need to do it again. Money isn't the only thing needed but it's an important factor. Here's links to multiple types of federal & state races to choose from:
1. First, we desperately need to keep the #HouseBlueIn22! I know it’s a long shot but if the GOP takes control you’ll have lunatics like MTG, Matt Gaetz & Lauren Boebert in charge, & you can kiss the #January6th investigation goodbye. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/housebl…
2. Second, it's vitally important to not only keep the #SenateBlueIn22 to retain control of judicial appointments, but to *pad* the majority to help prevent a couple of wayward Dems from throwing sand in the gears of President Biden's agenda. Donate today! secure.actblue.com/donate/senateb…
The lack of *daily* FL deaths isn't what's suspicious (they've done this cute back-dating thing since June, where they add a week's worth of deaths to the total every Friday).
What's suspicious is that they claim to have only had 162 deaths statewide between 12/27/21 - 1/04/22.
I'm quite serious. Check the White House COVID Response Team's Community Profile Report from 12/27 and from today. Unless there's *another* update to bring FL's numbers up to date, the statewide difference is only 162, which seems...low. beta.healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-1…
According to the CDC, the most deaths in a single day Florida has reported to them since December 1st is 27 on 12/07. Since 12/20 they haven't reported more than 10 per day.
Oh for God's sake. I *personally* think PR should become a state but support for statehood *among Puerto Ricans* is all over the place. Statehood won a majority in a nonbinding vote a few years back but I believe turnout was pretty low.
If you're pushing for PR statehood because you think it'd mean 2 more Dem Senators & 4-5 more Dem House members, not only is that the wrong reason to support it, it's also not remotely close to a sure thing. I don't know much re. PR but I know their internal politics are complex.
PR statehood is a *completely different animal* than DC statehood, which has *massive* support by those who live there. There are other major legal, logistical & other differences between the two as well.
📣📣 REMINDER: Residents of every state except Idaho still have until January 15th (or later) left to enroll in comprehensive, affordable healthcare coverage during #ACA Open Enrollment!