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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

23 Dec 21

The danger of a military attack by Russia in the direct European neighborhood is permanent and the most recent escalation caused by its drastic troops mobilization will send a strong signal once again that a military attack could be imminent at any time. What’s Russia’s plan? /1

Russia‘s Putin is preparing for the „long game“, that is the systemic rivalry between USA and China. He seeks to upgrade his regional positioning by testing the American reaction (he knows that there won’t be a military involvement by US in Ukraine due to mid-term elections). /2

And at the same time, by showing muscle, Putin makes Russia an indispensable player, without which neither of the two rivals - USA & China, could win the future competition against each other. How many countries in the world could mobilize so many troops in such a short time? /3

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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

21 Dec 21

The greatest risk for Europe, in addition to the increasing political, economic, and social destabilisation of the continent, is the emergence of lines of fragmentation along competing geopolitical interests of the external actors. /1

The divergent
goals of key actors (US, China, Russia, Turkey, etc.) further divide European members & institutions on geopolitical issues. As a result, the 🇪🇺 has less & less room for manoeuvres in increasingly contested areas in its immediate neighbourhood to the South & East./2

Other regional actors not only have combat experience but also do not shy away from the use of force. The geopolitical gaps that are opening up in the Middle East, North Africa & Eastern Europe will be filled by these agile regional actors, further exacerbating the EU’s stance./3

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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

15 Apr 21

An unexpected manifestation of the pandemic is the bifurcation of the global order in a way unseen since the Cold War. It begs the question—is the world witnessing the beginning of a new bipolar era of global competition? A thread 🧵#GlobalSystem #geopolitics #RaisinaFiles

In the presence of a hegemon, there is always a process of polarisation that leads to the creation of a secondary system organised around a pole consisting of a single competitor or a group of rivals that seek to undermine the incumbent’s global power supremacy.

A global reserve currency is not possible nowadays without global power projection capabilities
that enable the US to control the interconnected flows of goods, capital, services, data, & protect trade & transport routes from disruptions that might result in major supply shocks.

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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

10 Apr 21

I find this recent talk with Peter Thiel at the Nixon Seminar truly fascinating and I read the transcript already three times.
A thread with the most interesting statements I derived from this source follows on Twitter now. I recommend you the whole text nixonseminar.com/2021/04/the-ni…

"Tech is politically neutral, but can still be — if crypto is kind of libertarian, AI is kind of communist. China is willing to apply it & turn the entire society into a face recognition surveillance state that is far more intrusive & totalitarian than even Stalinist Russia was."

"Certainly in the 1980s I had the view that the Soviet Union could never be reformed from within, and that even Eastern Bloc countries would — you know, it was high-tech enough, you had the secret police with guns, they could break up any protest and it would never change."

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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

2 Feb 20

A few thoughts on #Coronavirus:
1) See how USSR regime handled the first weeks following Chernobyl catastrophe (a lot of information about it on Internet) to understand the reactions of the Communist Government during emergencies. #Coronavirus contagion began in December 2019!

2) The nuclear accident at Chernobyl nuclear power plant was completely classified & the communist regime repeated its deceitful mantra: “Nothing threatens peoples’ health.” The whole emergency was handled with deception, cover-ups & control of narrative nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/…

3) So far we don’t really know what we don’t know about #Coronavirus and the CCP is providing us with numbers we can’t be sure that they reflect the reality on the ground. How long has the contagion been spreading since December before the Government decided to introduce masks?

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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

9 Jun 19

@nntaleb

My recommended read is Principia Politica by @nntaleb. The question is how to look at & discipline politicians through the complex systems perspective (nature, ecosystems, complexity) and thus shape the processes bottom-up reflecting on Fractal Localism. academia.edu/38433249/Princ…

We must keep those in power & the bureaucrats constantly in check. Bottom-up. Decentralization. We have to bother them, demand more from them, and make them feel uncomfortable if they don’t keep their political promises or don’t deliver. We have to expose them too when necessary!

The State, its bureaucrats, politicians as well as supranational organizations are not masters but are to be seen as (social) servants providing a specific social good that is desired by a healthy mass of citizens (collective service, good, demand). Otherwise, social parasitism.

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