@MntyP1@knigotnik@systemanalysen They can't explain it. But it's quite easy. The excess is dominated by 85+. Those are fragile people, and having had 2 years lockdowns and panic is not healthy. In Sweden this group is doing fine, as living a social life as mammals are supposed to live. See here.
@MntyP1@knigotnik@systemanalysen Both SWE and NL have vaxx levels of 95% in this group. It's irrelevant for the excess. No vaxx can make a damage at this level like NL. It's the lockdown, fear and isolation. Prisoners don't live long. If we continue, we can probably reduce life expectancy by 10 years.
@MntyP1@knigotnik@systemanalysen This excess is also in the 75-84 cohort in NL. Also 93% vaxxed in both countries. Nothing in SWE. It's the lockdown. Isolation and fear is unhealthy for social mammal life. Destroys resilience. I bet it's all cardiovascular and respiratory. @rubenivangaalen@KoudijsHenk
Have we not heard that old people often die when they loose their partner? Why is this the case?
We are not designed to live in fear, anxiety and isolation. Add low vitamin D levels, lack of sports, lack of healthy food and missed treatments.
@MntyP1@knigotnik@systemanalysen@rubenivangaalen@KoudijsHenk This excess is BTW also seen in all neighbouring countries of Sweden. Only Sweden is doing fine. Only Sweden didn't implement tyranny. That's the underlying root cause.
Shame on the Netherlands! For what they did to old, young and their society as a whole.
@MntyP1@knigotnik@systemanalysen@rubenivangaalen@KoudijsHenk What's even further appoling is the behavior of @statistiekcbs. They push the Simpson's confounding story using all age averages of vaccination levels and all age excess to claim too low vaccination as root cause. How wrong. E.g. here:
DNK: 99% and they have 85+ excess.
SWE: >93% and they have 85+ under mortality.
FI: >95% and they have 85+ excess.
NL: >93% and they GIANT excess in 85+
1/ Netherlands ASMR mortality update - now up to week 47 (end November).
Left: perception and panic (unadjusted crude mortality)
Right: Age Standardized Mortality (reality)
2/ ASMR By age group and sex. Problem or not?
All of the 2021 apparent excess in tweet 1 on the left is the illusion of demographics and mortality in the 75+ age population which is getting bigger and bigger every year.
Standardized, the statistical illusion disappears.
2/ All of the Balkan countries show the spike in season 2020, so July 2020 - June 2021.
Interesting.
We may need to expand on the hypothesis laid out by @hmatejx to understand this as Croatia really isn't known for having done hard lockdowns like the Slovenian neighbours.
1/ The main stream media @TheEconomist and also @OurWorldInData continue their "Our Age Confounded Useless Data" game combined with excess metrics which mislead.
2/ I don't have 26M followers @TheEconomist, but I do know that using Age Standardized Mortality Rates is the only meaningful metric unless you want to show that Nigeria with a low excess is better than living in Italy (life expectancy 82 years).
But here an example: Denmark
3/ The @TheEconomist is here suggesting that Denmark with an 46 week ASMR 2021 of 8.48 is better than Norway at 6.66.
30% higher ASMR is a bad.
Having a lot of deaths at a stable baseline is better than having variance at ultra low baselines?
The OWID website is one of the worst. After almost a 2 years, there still aren't any age de-confounded ASMR, and the coverage time series only include misleading aggregated figures. OWID delivers one Simpson's paradox after another.
2/ Here some input for @redouad. OWID likes to fear porn with unadjusted death figures. Even better with cumulated "total deaths" (sounds scary right?) over several years.
1/ NL, AUT, SWE, NO, CH age adjusted mortality update.
I have added data up to week 47 now (28th November).
Left column: crude mortality (normalized to total population).
Right column: ASMR using NL2011 std. population.
AUT and NL go up, not NO, CH, SWE.
2/ The mortality increase in NL and AUT is not related to vaxx. The vaxx is at the same time not visible as lifesaving in all cause as C19 is not the driving parameter, neither is the vaxx.
We likely see the price to pay for permanent lockdowns, social isolation, fear, etc.
3/ Let's dig deeper than AMSR: now we plot mortality by age bin population. This is more precise in order to understand what is going on.
No surprise, the old are dying. Do people not know this? And are we now "bin counting" 90+ people to make lockdown panic? Stop this please.