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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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8 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Actual #Covid19Ireland ICU occupancy added as a black dot onto NPHETs mid December scenarios for Omicron - if anything we have more cases than expected so ICU being this far below expected is remarkable & very good news indeed - see thread Image
This tweet is doing number so added context
1. Cases appear to me to be at the worst end is scenarios but we lack capacity to detect that many
2. Hospitalisations until 3 days ago we’re heading for upper 1/3 of worst outcomes
… /2
…My guess would be vaccination is proving to be much more effective against severe outcomes with Omicron than anticipated but I’m still nervous about a surge in older grps. A very good thing as those ICU demand scenarios were for far more ICUs than we have at the worst 1/2
I am optimistic but we are just at the start of the high risk hospital period stemming from whatever happened Xmas day to NYE - by next Friday we will know if the boosters held up enough, right now it’s still a hope

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
9 Jan
Common Sunday increase in #Covid19Ireland hospital cases due to delayed discharges at weekend with 984 in Hospital 137% last Sunday - that rate has slowed & this day last year there were 1,285 in hospital. Discharges typically catch up Tuesdays so tomorrow may see over 1,000 /1 Image
Today last year there were a similar number of new hospital cases (134) but we were in the middle of a rapid escalation of occupancy due to xmas intergenerational mixing - so far this year is different because of higher discharge rate, probably vaccine driven /2 Image
Again due to vaccination the proportion of cases going to hospital is a tiny fraction of last year. New hospital cases are 0.83% cases in week to 6 days previous - just as well as there were 123k cases detected that week & probably as many again that could not access testing /3 Image
Read 15 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
8 Jan
Todays 917 #COVID19Ireland hospital cases are 140% last Saturday but 2nd day of a row of falling numbers. I don't want to prematurely call that a peak, it will rise tomorrow, but it is very good news indeed which I'll explain in detail /1 Image
Looking at last years hospital graph makes it clear we are on a very different trajectory. Today had 1153 in hospital and was the first 1/3 of several days of rapidly rising hospital cases as a consequence of xmas intergenerational mixing - we are not seeing that /2 Image
We have seen a period of rapidly rising new hospital cases but they are no longer doubling despite cases more than doubling in the week 6 days back, 1007 new hospital cases this week is 136% previous rather than 200%+ /3 Image
Read 19 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
7 Jan
936 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases today Jan7 is 137% last Friday but for the 1st time fewer than this day last year which had 1022. There were more admissions 161 this year V 131 last year but shorter lengths of stay mean numbers in hospital are now less with 3 day plateau/1 Image
972 new hospital cases this week is 141% previous but after a long period of every day increase this to has plateaued over last 3 days - too early to call a trend but certainly welcome in comparison with the alternative which had us heading for 1700 is hospital by Thursday /2 Image
Underlying this is a fall in the proportion of cases going to hospital, New hospital cases in week are 0.91% cases, 1st time that's fallen under 1% and for periods in recent months it was four times that rate (we'd have 4,000 in hospital now at that mid October rate) /3 Image
Read 13 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
21 Oct 21
Looking in details at 63 #Covid19Ireland deaths added week shows a larger proportion of younger ages, larger proportion at home and all but one in recent months from comparison with last weeks
Under 25 +2
25-34 +1
35-44 +1
45-54 NC
55-64 +4
65-74 +16
75-84 +15
85plus +24
/1
1 January 2021, 25 added to months covered by July NPHET scenarios - some commentators prematurely thought we had come further under deaths scn than was likely because they were not allowing for report lag
Jan+1
July+1
Aug+4
Sep+19
Oct+37 (Of which 21 were prior to this week)/2
The 10 occurring at home is 4 times the rate of the pandemic overall which along with the younger ages might indicate C19 triggered heart attacks?

Settings
Hospital +25
Res Institution +20
Home +10
Unknown +8

Outbreak linked
Nursing home +22
Hospital +4
Community Hos +1
/3
Read 15 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
20 Oct 21
Big surge in #Covid19Ireland ICU admissions today which TBH already throughs the push ahead with reopening into doubt. Highest occupancy since 19th March
86 ICU is 125% last Weds
49 ICU admissions this week is 153% previous
ICU admissions are 13% NHC, 0.5% cases /1
There was a lot of (strange) commentary that treated the August NPHET scenarios as missed targets & so is now wondering why healthcare can't cope now. Better to understand them as avoided fears that would have caused enormous disruption - which we are now heading towards /2
There appear to have been two deaths as only 12 additional occupancy but that would have filled all the available ICU beds yesterday which presumably means surge capacity will be activated by taking operating theatres out of use - so a lot of cancelled other healthcare /3
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
20 Oct 21
First time I’ve seen this very useful table from near the start of the pandemic which assigns a score to what’s essentially the housing crisis contribution to the pandemic - note Swedens position at the bottom of the table while we are 3rd worst at top
And breaking down some of the factors that make up that housing crisis score. Given the huge role of household transmission the advantage to having a lot of single occupier households where there is nobody else to infect is self evident in making it easier to control
Going back to this table people have been asking why Denmark, Finland, Germany & Sweden have lower cases with much open. Those are the four least effected by ‘housing crisis’ overcrowding conditions as measured here. Norway not listed but also would be low on scale
Read 5 tweets

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