1/ Tom captures well this reality.
Where we are now with vaccinations, therapeutic- and with the Omicron variant- is very different from March 2020, or December 2020, or even October 2021.
We were not wrong to urge NPIs when the population was spike naive, and R0 was 2.5
Where we are now with vaccinations, therapeutic- and with the Omicron variant- is very different from March 2020, or December 2020, or even October 2021.
We were not wrong to urge NPIs when the population was spike naive, and R0 was 2.5
https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1479585440277700612
2/ in fact, these actions, painful as they were, bought us time for the vaccine rollout, and saved hundreds of thousands of lives.
But we can't insist on the same prescriptions when the disease has changed, for fear of being called "inconsistent", or "giving up"
But we can't insist on the same prescriptions when the disease has changed, for fear of being called "inconsistent", or "giving up"
3/ Omicron is less deadly than the Wuhan strain for unvaccinated, and 10x less deadly for the vaccinated
We have the vaccines and the boosters and the meds and the tests and the good masks to protect the elderly and the immunocompromised, - if we can just marshal them.
We have the vaccines and the boosters and the meds and the tests and the good masks to protect the elderly and the immunocompromised, - if we can just marshal them.
4/ at the same time, an increase in infectiousness of 2-3x for Delta, and ANOTHER 2-3x for Omicron, with more asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic spread means that even a shutdown would only slow, not extinguish the pandemic
Even if that were socially and politically feasible 🤷
Even if that were socially and politically feasible 🤷
5/ the shorter incubation period and massive numbers of undiagnosed infections means that contact tracing for disease control at this point is a farce.
It wasn't a year ago. I supported it. I was right to do so.
It's absurd now.
It wasn't a year ago. I supported it. I was right to do so.
It's absurd now.
6/ so yes,
We shouldn't close schools now
We should focus on protecting elderly and immunocompromised
Case counts are meaningless
It's not clear if we need to test asymptomatics
We should stop contact tracing
None of these were true last year
They are true now
We shouldn't close schools now
We should focus on protecting elderly and immunocompromised
Case counts are meaningless
It's not clear if we need to test asymptomatics
We should stop contact tracing
None of these were true last year
They are true now
7/ what should define what "camp" you're in is not whether you are "pro-shutdown" or anti-,
#Hopium or #LerErRip
It's whether we try to make decisions based on the facts as best we understand them, with appropriate humility.
And a willingness to change.
#Hopium or #LerErRip
It's whether we try to make decisions based on the facts as best we understand them, with appropriate humility.
And a willingness to change.
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