Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Hopium

Most recents (22)

The 10-Year + 30-Year UST yield tanked after Jay Powell's presser as bond traders price in recession.

Bond market positioning itself correctly, but stock market is smoking #hopium

When there is a discrepancy between the bond and stock market, usually pays to bet on the former.
When recession lands in a few months, short-term rates will decline significantly and that is why bond traders are taking duration risk and buying lower yielding long-term bonds.

When recession lands, earnings will also decline meaningfully and $SPX should discount this in Q1.
All the "good news" is already known, therefore discounted. i.e. peak inflation and smaller rate hikes

The stock market hasn't yet discounted the deep (20-25%?) earnings decline in $SPX in 2023....that is the next shoe to drop.

Economic news won't be rosy in Q1/Q2.
Read 5 tweets
Apparently we have SARS-CoV-2 right where we want it.

Next year we won’t get another wave?

🤦🏻‍♀️😂
#Hopium is damaging. Not only does it encourage people to continue to get sick, but when the next wave comes, and it will come, it hurts.
Read 4 tweets
The lies 2020:

Don’t Panic, we go for #herdimmunity, #children can’t spread it and won’t be harmed

What was really
#wewanttheminfected
And use #schools as a tap for controlled spread. No transparency, no testing no mask

Lets spread the lie that mask simply don’t work

Begin
Here #polarisation starts driven by misinformation and intransparancy by your government. Everybody could see that the measures were nog in line with urgency.

What were they hiding? Why no #zerorisk #zerocovid with borders closed. It could be done

2020: wait we know this will
Lead to many many deaths but the #vaccin is almost here, working hard, we know the #SPIKE is a big thing, hold on #Hopium being built.

Meanwhile lets keep up the lie of children not important to monitor😢 we know from SARS they build less #antibodies lets presume they just not
Read 31 tweets
🧵Speculative trade ideas for 2022Q4 and beyond:
🚧work in progress🚧

"CHEAP AMAZONS"
BIGCAPS OUTLIERS
CHINA REOPEN
COAL US & INTL
CRYPTOS
DOLLAR
EARNINGS RECESSION
ENERGY-DRIVEN INFLATION *US/EU*
ENERGY SHOCK / SHIFT
FERTILIZERS
FRAUD & BULLSHIT
HIGH INTEREST RATES
LNG / NORDSTREAM
MACRO, SAFE VS SEXY
METALS
PEACE
PMI'S SHARP DECLINE
STAR COUNTRIES
UKRAINE'S CROPS
VALUE CYCLE FRONT RUN
VOLATILITY
WAR ESCALATION
WATER & LAND
WORLD WIDE FOOD SHORTAGE

Pls, let me take time to develop in the coming days and share with you as I progress...
"CHEAP AMAZONS"
In the present environment, there could be the opportunity to find the next Amazon/Apple/Microsoft, etc. at a cheap price.
Companies that although not profitable could be now at one of their lowest valuations compared to both past and future

$DNA
$NET
$PLTR
$UBER
Read 46 tweets
1/n A small thread on what I found problematic with Dr Jha's & what I liked - first ❤ " I always lean on people getting more rest - so people who were pushing for @Potus to work dont have Dr Jha's support -Potus isn't Superman ,he should rest & that should be the messaging ctd)
2/n I have trouble in accepting that its going to be simple- already seeing pet animals being infected - a reservoir is being fast built , we wasted crucial time in thinking it will remain within the MSM circuit , didn't stop pride marches-didnt trace well - missing chance ctd)
3/n There is a big problem that there is lack of data , data has to be seen real time - There isn't enough vaccines to do ring vaccination- there should be proper state ,federal coordination - this passing the buck doesn't help ctd)
Read 7 tweets
Ich denke wir erleben derzeit eine dramatische Untererfassung des #Corona-#Infektionsgeschehen|s durch offizielle Zahlen.Der Eindruck aus meinem privaten und geschäftlichen Umfeld suggeriert, daß schon jetzt - mitten im Sommer - die Höhe der ersten #Omikron-Welle erreicht wurde🧵
2/19
Die Schule meiner Kinder ist entvölkert, meine Twitter-Timeline voll mit Infektionsmeldungen und meine Geschäftstätigkeiten kommen aufgrund des Krankenstandes bei den Kunden fast zum Erliegen.
3/19
Derweil herrscht von Seitens der Politik erstaunliche Stille. Während man in Bayern über die Abschaffung der #Maskenpflicht - noch vor dem Peak der aktuellen Welle nachdenkt, geben sich zeitgleich auch vernünftige Klinikchefs recht entspannt.
Read 19 tweets
»Ich würde mich tatsächlich gerne korrigieren«

Endlich!!
Endlich - vielen Dank @c_drosten!

Ich habe in den letzten Wochen fast angefangen an Verschwörungserzählungen zu glauben.

Schleimhautimmunität ...
spiegel.de/wissenschaft/c… via @derspiegel
... natürlicher Booster, Podcast-Stopp, raus aus dem Expertenrat.

Mir ging es echt fast so wie:
Macht Christian Drosten jetzt einen auf Verdrängung?

Ich habe es wirklich nicht verstanden.

Jetzt zumindest ein wenig Einordnung.
Bei aller Bewunderung & with due Respekt: ...
... ich konnte an der Stelle im Interview leider überhaupt nicht lachen.
Oder nur auf eine einzige Art.
Und die war nicht besonders schön.

Bitte, diese Pandemie braucht jetzt Tacheles.
Und wieder #teamvorsicht.
Oder zumindest #teamratio.

MUGA!
(Make unfreud great again)
Read 10 tweets
Some interesting data on $UST and Terra's Anchor Protocol:

- There are 256K Anchor wallets
- The top 1000 Anchor wallets own 82% of all UST
- The poorest wallet in this top 1000 has 955K UST

This is great news for $UST / Anchor depositors.

Why? Let me explain..

1/
There's currently a proposal on the official Terra forum. The goal is to make people "whole" again, using Terra's $1,5B fund.

But there are different ways of doing this.

One way would be to return, say, 30 cents on each UST invested to every wallet.

2/
But this way, Terra's funds would disproportionately flow to rich whales who were holding most of the UST at the time of the depeg.

And you'd only be making everyone just 30% whole. In reality, most people would still feel bitter.

So let's explore the other way..

3/
Read 12 tweets
In #Dänemark steigen die #Todeszahlen. So massives Infektionsgeschehen dass >15% der Bevölkerung in BA.2 Welle infiziert, bei BA.1& BA.1.1 Welle waren es schon über 10%. Mit Omicron ist #Covid so omnipräsent. Todeszahlen werden auf >300 tgl ansteigen und 60 % der Bevölkerung
1x
+/- 25% werden sich mit Omicron Infiziert haben wenn Saisonalitätseffekt Besserung bringt. Jetzt für Deutschland gedacht. Todeszahlen werden jetzt steigen weil Welle die Älteren und Vulnerablen erreicht & Lockerungen stattfinden."Es geht ja gut mit der Krankheitslast auf ITS
2x
wir können #mehr Infektionen zulassen." Wer in dem #Narrativ drin, sieht weder dass so #Risikogruppenschutz nicht mgl. Es sind noch wenige Wochen bis Frühling und einige Monate bis zum angepassten Impfstoff der wieder gut vor #Infektion schürzt und damit Infektionen verhindert
3x
Read 16 tweets
Don't tell @KevinSvenson_ I posted this troll mash-up of MEME content for the "Hopium: Last Day Before Bear Market"

Hope he's kind enough to let the video stay up if he finds out 😂

#Crypto #Bounce #BearMarket #hopium #itsOVER #itsNOTover #deadmarket

Disclaimer: This video is NOT endorsed by Kevin Svenson Crypto - however I am a community manager in discord/VIP-chat for patreons. I made this as a joke/troll for the community. Please consider joining below to support the joke.
and the original content creator Kevin Svenson Crypto. Cheers.

This video is brought to you by DeFi Money-Printer if you enjoyed this content, please consider subscribing to Kevin Svenson Crypto on these platforms ⬇️⬇️⬇️

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Read 16 tweets
1/ 🧵 Dringende Massnahmen für #Schulen gegen die Durchseuchung von Kindern und Jugendlichen. #DurchseuchungOhneUns
Rückblick: Delta-Welle, Herbst 2021: Über Wochen konnten exponentiell ansteigende Inzidenzen im Schulalter beobachtet werden.
2/ Mangelhafte kantonale Schutzkonzepte für eine grösstenteils nicht immunisierte Bevölkerungsgruppe liessen #Schulen zu #Corona-Drehscheiben werden.
kinder-schuetzen-jetzt.ch/corona-drehsch…
3/ Studien belegen die Wirkung von #Masken und die Vorteile von #FFP2-Masken gegen #Aerosole, doch eine praktisch inexistente Krisenkommunikation für den Schulbereich führte zur Verunsicherung der Bevölkerung und zu einem kantonalen Masken-#Flickenteppich.
kinder-schuetzen-jetzt.ch/wirksamkeit-vo…
Read 19 tweets
1/ Tom captures well this reality.

Where we are now with vaccinations, therapeutic- and with the Omicron variant- is very different from March 2020, or December 2020, or even October 2021.

We were not wrong to urge NPIs when the population was spike naive, and R0 was 2.5
2/ in fact, these actions, painful as they were, bought us time for the vaccine rollout, and saved hundreds of thousands of lives.

But we can't insist on the same prescriptions when the disease has changed, for fear of being called "inconsistent", or "giving up"
3/ Omicron is less deadly than the Wuhan strain for unvaccinated, and 10x less deadly for the vaccinated

We have the vaccines and the boosters and the meds and the tests and the good masks to protect the elderly and the immunocompromised, - if we can just marshal them.
Read 7 tweets
There's a lot of hype today around #DeFi 2.0

Can't expect degens to ignore 500,000+% #APY..

If you're considering investing in protocols like $OHM, $TIME, $KLIMA, $SPA, $HEC then read on for some #hopium, warnings and a #spreadsheet to help you make the most of it.. 🪡 👇
2/ These DeFi 2.0 protocols offer enormous APY (Sometimes in the millions of %). Here are the current APYs of some projects:

- $OHM - 6,982.4% ($ETH)
- $TIME - 78,325.2% ($AVAX)
- $KLIMA - 59,722% ($MATIC)
- $SPA - 239,674.5% ($FTM)
- $HEC - 320,713.2% ($FTM)

Sound juicy? 🧃 🤑
3/ Here's a great video by @WhiteboardCryp1:


And another by @finematics:


I won't get into the mechanics of these protocols here, but I want to share a spreadsheet I created to help you understand the upside / downside.
Read 14 tweets
There’s a lot of #Hopium being shared over #Omicron saying that because info is incomplete that therefore “it’s just a mild cold”, “viruses always become more harmless over time”, “let’s all get infected”. But we know more than many admit
Once again, alarm signals about increased transmissibility (in Delta this mean higher viral loads and increased hospitalisation rates). Lack of perfect evidence of harm is hardly grounds for Faith in #Omicron being the Saviour attenuated live viral vaccine some claim it is
Omicron already exhibits mutations that were predicted to increase infectivity through enhanced binding to ACE2. There are *NO* known genetic features predictive of it turning into a cuddly live attenuated viral vaccine against COVID (the virology equivalent of Santa)
Read 8 tweets
1/ Yes, #Academic reasoning of value proposition. I have over 11+ years as an academic & professor. Most academics are good at analyzing & assessing things, as to building #DisruptiveTechnology The hungriest & most talented #entrepreneurs who designed from 1st Principles $eGLD ⚡️
2/ They have sold public that somehow you can have #Academics analyze something that has NEVER been done before. The very premise of value proposition is faulty at its core. $eGLD & $ADA You don’t know what you don’t know in #DisruptiveTechnology that is what makes it disruptive
3/ Many people don’t even understand what the #DisruptiveTechnological cycle looks like, behaves like or that this is what they are investing in. #CriticalThinking has all been lost among some. The level of comfort & deception is powerful. $ADA will do well but any one believing
Read 5 tweets
1/ I produce a lot of content. It's difficult for some to keep up with at times. Below, a list of some of my threads & important tweets for $EGLD & $CEL The Crypto Industry & Banking/Federal Reserve & Investing. Education is Freedom & Crypto is Financial Freedom. #cryptocurrency
3/ “Is @ElrondNetwork The Future Smart Contract Blockchain Market Leader?” (44 Page Research & Investment Thesis) $EGLD ⚡️
Read 53 tweets
1. “None of this is to denigrate the religious instinct that compels humans to look for a saviour from the heavens. On the contrary. Those with religious faith should be the most offended by this god from the machine script ...” #hopium
2. “that sees their most cherished, divine beliefs cynically played on by would-be political rulers masquerading as gods.
Of course the hopium peddled by these fake gods is enticing. It’s designed to be.“ #hopium
3. “It plays on one of our greatest capacities as human beings: our capacity for hope. Our belief that we can make the world a better place and that we are not condemned to forever wait for the god from the machine to deliver us from our problems.” #hopium
Read 9 tweets
#Kriptopara piyasası hakkında size farklı bir bakış açısı sunmak için bir mini flood yapmaya karar verdim. Konu aslında $usd özelinde dönüyor ve veriler çok ilginç.
Tabi ki #kriptopara alırken sadece $usd ile almıyoruz ancak bize bir fikir vermesi açısından $usd veri seti kullanacağım.
2018 yılı başında, yani önceki boğa sezonunun zirve noktasındaki $usd arzını merak ettim. Şu şekilde göstereyim. 3700 Milyar Dolar. Zirve noktasında ise 780 Milyar Dolarlık bir toplam market hacmi var kriptoparaların. Bu yaklaşık %21 e denk geliyor. Bunu aklımızda tutalım. Image
Read 6 tweets
Quick self-reflection thread.. kinda funny in retrospect:

*Used to believe that tweets moved stocks, they don't.. $$ does

*My planned exits were easily influenced by others (often lead to holding thru the dump, bye bye profits)

*Believed others' tweets about their positions..
..no, they didn't hold thru the carnage. (They sold & never looked back)

*Often bought into a co's POTENTIAL.. execution by mgmt is what matters (potential usually = poor mgmt)

*Rarely used stop losses & often cancelled/ignored --> (more bagholding of potential --> big losses)
*Knew little about/ignored macro drivers.. didn't care to learn about general market implications or the WHY my positions were red, just saw P/L

*Diversification was stupid to me.. I could make much more $$ all in on one co. (HAHAHA.. can lose the same way)

*Placed too much..
Read 64 tweets
As you might know, @BitwiseInvest filed for a Bitcoin ETF with a 227-slides deck (sec.gov/comments/sr-ny…). Apart from their most talked about finding that 95% of the trading spot volume for crypto is fake, they had other interesting learnings about the crypto market - #thread
1/ Spot vs. Futures: Spot market for BTC trading is smaller than we think, & futures is bigger. CME trading volume on best day was 30% of volume in spot markets, which is significant. However, they ignored @bitmex, @deribit in the calculations. They should have been investigated.
2/ Similarly, the daily futures trading volume on @CMEGroup is nearly equal to the trading volume on @cz_binance @binance (most liquid spot exchange). That should answer some of SEC’s doubts for market manipulation, and help in approving a Bitcoin ETF. #hopium
Read 7 tweets
1/ 2014 bear was different then now. Back then besides bitcoin maximalists and lucky people who got in early, it was mostly caused by mt gox. Now it is a different animal for $btc #bitcoin
2/ retail didn’t exist then cuz if it did you would have been in it. Now large smart money got in, exited, and dumped all over you.
3/ i fully agree with @Crypto_Macro when he says there is a fundamental and technical catalyst that must lead us forward. Also the recent thread by @AriDavidPaul is worth noting.
Read 8 tweets

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