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Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
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10 Jan, 6 tweets, 2 min read
This picture paints about 3000 words.
While I cannot sit and write 3000, here’s a few: Vaccines work. The COVID-19 vaccines are extremely effective at preventing serious illness, hospitalization, AND death.
Sources
Image: @PaulMainwood- please do be sure to read his analysis as it is EXTREMELY informative (Yes, I asked for permission to use this!)
Report and Data: icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audi… & icnarc.org/DataServices/A…
Paul goes into detail and answers frequently asked questions regarding why unvaccinated rates for 70+ are lower than 60-69 so again please be sure to read. He also goes in depth regarding absolute risks.
ICNARC (Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre) recently updated their analysis of COVID-19 patients in critical care in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. This reflects ICU/Critical Care NOT hospitalization.
ICNARC’s analysis DOES account for confounders such as boosters being recently administered, rates are per 100,000 in that group per week so booster rates are normalized to shorter periods and therefore are comparable.

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More from @sailorrooscout

Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
8 Jan
Just a heads up. Regarding “Deltacron” or the “new variant” out of Cyprus. Please be aware those sequences being reported by media outlets right now appear to be due to contamination. It is NOT a new variant.
Per @PeacockFlu “they do not cluster on a phylogenetic tree and have a whole artic primer sequencing amplicon of Omicron in an otherwise Delta backbone.”
When processing several COVID samples at the same time, procedural failures can occur, and contaminations between samples with different variants occur. As @wanderer_jasnah says, it is PCR recombination due to contamination. Usually computational analysis can detect these flaws.
Read 11 tweets
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
7 Jan
A new analysis out of the CDC shows just how extremely effective COVID-19 vaccines are against COVID-19 associated hospitalization and death. Among 1,228,664 fully vaccinated individuals across the United States, 185 (0.015%) had severe illness and 36 (0.0033%) died. 🧵
Using data from 465 facilities in a large U.S. health care database, this study assessed the frequency of and risk factors for developing a severe COVID-19 outcome after completing a primary COVID-19 vaccination series, defined as receipt of 2 doses of an mRNA vaccine (BNT162b2
[Pfizer-BioNTech] or mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) or a single dose of JNJ-78436735 [Janssen (Johnson & Johnson)] ≥14 days before illness onset. Severe COVID-19 outcomes were defined as hospitalization with a diagnosis of acute respiratory failure, need for noninvasive ventilation (NIV),
Read 8 tweets
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
5 Jan
“In the United States, mortality trends typically trail case trends by about three weeks- which means the Omicron surge, which began more than a month ago, should be visible in the death counts. It isn’t yet.”

Let’s talk about that. 🧵
NOTE: Source for ALL the information above AND in this thread can be found here. I highly recommend David Leonhardt’s “The Morning” Newsletter.
•nytimes.com/2022/01/05/bri…
“The details of the Omicron variant are becoming clearer, and they are encouraging. They’re not entirely encouraging, and I will get into some detail about one of the biggest problems- the stress on hospitals, which are facing huge numbers of moderately ill COVID-19 patients.”
Read 14 tweets
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
3 Jan
Guys, B.1.640.2 isn’t new. It actually PREDATES Omicron. It's a sub-lineage of B.1.640- which caused some concern back in mid-November but couldn’t even compete with Delta. B.1.640.2 was first sequenced OVER a month ago and was officially recognized as a lineage in December.
As Tom points out, there haven’t been any new sequences uploaded since before Christmas and this variant has had a decent chance to cause issues but never really materialized. It’s been classified as a Variant Under Monitoring by WHO since November. Let’s focus on Omicron.
If you need background on this I went over it all here. Approximately THREE days ago.
Read 14 tweets
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
3 Jan
A CWRU School of Medicine study of 577,938 pediatric and adult patients shows first time SARS-CoV-2 infections occurring at a time when Omicron was rapidly spreading were associated with significantly less severe outcomes than first time infections when Delta predominated. 🧵
It is IMPORTANT to note severity of disease in humans is NOT determined only by virus replication but also by the host immune response to the infection. Make sure you are PROTECTED. Source for the information above can be found here: medrxiv.org/content/10.110… PLEASE NOTE. Image
Currently, data on the severity of the disease caused by the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant has been limited. Here, researchers compared 3-day risks of emergency department (ED) visit, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, & mechanical ventilation
Read 15 tweets
Chise 🧬🧫🦠💉 Profile picture
2 Jan
“Breakthrough” infections DO NOT mean vaccines don’t work. Remember, they are preventives, NOT cures. One can still contract COVID once vaccinated. As long as that vaccine is preventing you from facing severe disease and worse, it IS working and doing what it was designed to do.
The term infection refers to the virus entering and being detectable in your system regardless of whether OR NOT it makes you sick, whereas the term illness refers to the virus entering, being detectable in your system AND making you sick. It it important not to conflate the two.
The first thing to know about the COVID-19 vaccines is that they’re doing exactly what they were designed and authorized to do. Since the vaccines first started their rollout late last year, rates of COVID-19 disease have taken an unprecedented plunge among the immunized.
Read 12 tweets

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