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Robert Gilbey Profile picture
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10 Jan, 4 tweets, 9 min read
Is neutrality a hill worth a United Ireland dying on?

Hypothetically, if a #UnitedIreland was conditional on the State applying for @NATO membership, would it be worth surrendering the undefined policy of #neutrality?

@sinnfeinireland
@fiannafailparty
@FineGael
@labour
To get as broad a viewpoint as possible, any retweets of the poll would be appreciated.
Any thoughts?

SF
@MaryLouMcDonald @Ogra_SF @johnbradysf @PearseDoherty @Farrell_Mairead @davidcullinane @mattcarthy @orourke_darren

FF
@MichealMartinTD @jackfchambers @willieodeaLIVE @daracalleary @lichamber @ThomasByrneTD @DonnellyStephen @sean_haughey
Any thoughts?

FG
@LeoVaradkar @simoncoveney @Paschald @HMcEntee @SimonHarrisTD @1Hildegarde @podonovan @brophytalks @FrankFeighan

Lab
@alankellylabour @geraldnash @seansherlocktd @DuncanSmithTD
@BrendanHowlin @MarkWall1 @AodhanORiordain

MEP
@SeanKellyMEP @FitzgeraldFrncs

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More from @RobGilbey

Robert Gilbey Profile picture
12 Jan
Cutting a cable may not constitute an act of war, but that doesn't mean the cable isn't a military target.

What are the implications of subsea fibers being considered military targets?

What @naval_service capabilities should we have to protect this critical data infrastructure?
Firstly, severing a subsea fiber isnt as simple as it sounds. Breaking a cable is one thing, severing it, is quite another.

Fiber optics are lightweight glass products, but propagating light across oceans requires power, so the cable is more a power cable as it is a fiber cable. Image
What's worth noting is that as the technology evolves, the form factor of subsea cables start to change.

More fiber cores are being pumped into small cables, means longer cables can be spooled onto cable laying ships.

But that presents a challenge

There is no one size fits all Image
Read 15 tweets
Robert Gilbey Profile picture
10 Jan
Too many questions to answer in a single tweet, so I'll thread my reply.

Firstly, I will ask what is your interpretation of #neutrality?

I have to ask because Irish neutrality is subjective

It is not a written policy, nor is it recognised officially by any other nation or body
Actually, the latter point isn't strictly accurate, as @NATO acknowledges Ireland's "military neutrality" (note: they spelt out what it means to them).

Beyond that, there's no legally binding defined statement of Irish neutrality.

It does not exist.

nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…
"Military Neutrality" is meaningless, the term is a self-licking lollipop.

Unless the country is run by a Junta, the military doesn't have a say in where it gets deployed. As an instrument of political will, it is completely indifferent.

Politically, Ireland is far from neutral
Read 14 tweets
Robert Gilbey Profile picture
11 Mar 21
The last line is telling.

THREAD

The @IRLCoDF need to be seen to do something on #Cyber because @IRLDeptDefence offloaded general #CyberDefence responsibility onto @Dept_ECC & @ncsc_gov_ie.

But The National Cyber Security Strategy doesn't cater for defensive & offensive Ops.
So how can the @IRLCoDF build that capability into the @defenceforces as part of it's recommendations?

SPOILER:

It can't all sit with the Communication and Information Services (CIS) Corps.
1st, the @defenceforces needs an Intelligence Corps.

One that has career structures built to develop talent in the field of technical and military Int collection, collation, analysis & effective dissemination.

We need to be capable of making big data driven decisions fast.
Read 16 tweets
Robert Gilbey Profile picture
14 Feb 21
Irregular warfare has and continues to be a feature of modern conflict.

Should Ireland have an Irregular Reserve as part of an Irish Resistance Operating Concept?

It's not as dramatic as it sounds.

At <0.3% GDP spent on Defence, Ireland can't afford to build a mass of professional part time combat arm Reservists.

The current model of relying on individuals to be professional military standard volunteers has failed.

So if armed volunteers is the policy, how can it work?
Conscription or National Service in Ireland?

Given the discourse around EU Armies, I sincerely doubt that either be acceptable to the public without some existential driver behind it.

Conscription is typically viewed through a 20th century lens.
Read 13 tweets
Robert Gilbey Profile picture
17 Dec 20
Thread:

"With regard to the RDF, the Commission will consider a wide range of options and will make recommendations to better leverage the capabilities of the RDF in their supports to the PDF and to make service in the RDF a more attractive option."

Let's unpack that.....
Thankfully, the "Abolition of the Reserve" wasn't considered an option in the Terms of Reference as it was in the DoD's 2012 "Value for Money" Review of the RDF.

I would link the source, but the DoD have opted not to host it despite it informing the 2015 White Paper Policy.
The 2012 Steering Committee comprised of Civil & Military (but not a single Reservist) personnel saw no role for the Reserve as the "PDF could meet all day-to-day tasks".

8 years on, & DF capability is limited due to a crippling retention crisis as a result of DoD mismanagement.
Read 30 tweets
Robert Gilbey Profile picture
26 Nov 20
This is a significant step forward for @dfreserve

"The decision to join or stay in the Reserve should be informed by a more ambitious approach to its role" -@simoncoveney responding to @davidstantontd

Special thanks to @BerryCathal for his proposals for Defence Act amendments
@simoncoveney - "I will be encouraging [The Commission on Defence] to be ambitious & if necessary, quite radical to reflect the future defence & security challenges"

"I think we're in a good space here"

@BerryCathal "What the Minister has proposed has exceeded my expectations"
Solid foundations are being laid for what might well be a very progressive set of recommendations by the Commission on Defence.
Read 11 tweets

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