We need to be more nuanced in analyzing African government debt. Nigeria spending 9% of its GDP is by no means reckless. Problem is very little revenue to support that spending. So let’s focus on whether and how that spending is creating conditions necessary for growth.
Nigeria spends significantly less than most governments worldwide (not just compared to its peers).
@StearsBusiness - doublecheck your chart on government spending in the piece above. Ghana spends much more than 8% of its GDP.
Look at the chart above. Nigeria spends 2% of its GDP on salaries. Most Nigerian government employees are underpaid, and by all measures we have significantly fewer public employees than we need across the board (not enough policemen, teachers, health workers, etc).
Sure, there is (always) some public expenditure rationalization that can be done. Eg, I would shift resources away from unproductive desk civil servants to more service oriented field workers. And, some highly paid public servants (NASS, anyone?) can be cut down (or out 😅).
BUT even if you abolish NASS tomorrow, you won’t gain nearly enough money to even make dent in the public investments needed. So that is neither THE problem nor the solution.
Point is: you can’t achieve productivity (& revenue growth) without spending on critical govt services (security, health, education, etc) that make your economy competitive.
We need to acknowledge these inherent trade-offs & compromises. Growth isn’t going to happen magically..
For those unfamiliar w/ Nigerian jargon, NASS = Nigeria’s federal legislature
Btw, not coincidence that govts that spend more on public services (including wages) are often easier places to live than Nigeria. A policeman in Ghana is much less likely to harass you for money than counterparts in Nigeria. Had lights out just once in Accra in a 2 week period.
Been wondering a lot lately just how valuable ubiquitous dichotomies like developed/developing or developed market (DM) vs emerging market (EM) actually are (esp as they have become a very popular analytical framework in the Covid era).
These terms often conflate many different ideas/metrics, such that they take on different meanings to different people in different contexts. E.g. when we compare DMs to EMs, are we referring to the state of those countries’ financial markets OR their societies? Or both ?
Are these concepts useful for *financial as well as *political* analyses, or are they more useful for one than the other? Some markets may be “emerging” for financial or economic purposes but “developed” in a socio-political sense. Can these terms accommodate that complexity?
It has been difficult for me to engage w/ largely dismissive criticisms of #Nigeria’s move to close its land borders with #Benin & #Niger to address rampant smuggling and #Benin’s systematic flouting of Ecowas trade protocols & other treaties signed w/ #Nigeria.
But I feel this issue is too important not to try to improve public understanding about what’s at stake and why the status quo was untenable. So, what follows is a #thread about border security & rules-based trade, which is what the border closure is about at its core.
I’m going to state upfront that I will not engage re this issue on this medium. Instead, I’ll be doing a Facebook Live on Monday w/ @EurasiaGroup colleague Willis Sparks @ 11am EST/5pm Lagos. Please send (constructive) questions w/ hashtag #NaijaBorder & we will address them.
The above graph tracks federal govt revenue (after “under recovery”), but also important to remember that a whole lot of revenue in #Nigeria is not available for federal use (due to state/LG allocations and whatnot).
Need to start holding these local actors responsible as well.
Here are some charts from our compilation of revenue data per Nigeria’s budget implementation reports. All showing the same thing - non-oil revenue collection has always been very weak. Low oil prices just accentuated the revenue problem.
I’ve seen a lot of commentary to the effect that violence and inconclusive elections in the 2019 cycle is evidence that #Nigeria is witnessing a democratic regression. I understand this feeling, but strongly disagree. #NigeriaDecides#Thread
This narrative is mostly driven by two factors: (1) the sense that 2015 was a watershed because an incumbent lost (this was a big deal!) and (2) the larger number of inconclusive elections in the 2019 cycle.
2015 *was* indeed a watershed. The introduction of the smart card readers made it much harder to manipulate voting outcomes than it had been in the past and helped Buhari unseat the then incumbent. That was a huge deal and a big positive for #Nigeria’s democracy.
“To build a major project in the US now takes up to 10 years...Canada does it in two to three years and Germany does it in two.” Adebayo Ogunlesi of Global Infrastructure Partners (which owns Gatwick airport), referring to all the US regulatory hurdles projects have to clear.
Part of the problem, he explains, is that in the US you often have multiple agencies doing the same thing. “For example, the Environmental Protection Agency and the Army Corps of Engineers will, in some instances, both undertake environmental reviews.”
‘In some cases, they either don’t have deadlines to get the job done or ignore them. And when agencies disagree, there’s no mechanism for resolving disputes, so projects get caught in the middle.Then on top of that, you have to layer state and municipal reviews & legal processes’