1/3 - France (R-eff=1.23) experiences very high level of #COVID19 activity, with high mortality.
335,844 cases and 245 deaths/day foreseen by Jan 17, if at same pace;
Forecasts Jan 11 to Jan 14 are prone to underestimation: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/3 - All mainland Régions surge in #COVID19 cases:
- Very high mortality:
PACA=1.20;
AURA=1.27;
- High mort:
Brg-Fr-Cté=1.30;
Corse=1.18;
Grd-Est=1.25:
Ile-de-Fr=1.22;
Norm=1.36;
Nv-Aq=1.29;
Occit=1.26;
- Med mort:
Bret=1.28;
Ctre-Val-L=1.27;
Hts-de-Fr=1.33;
P-de-L=1.24.
3/3 – Overseas Régions are experiencing very high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Surge:
Réunion (R-eff=1.35), with high mortality;
- Rapid and worrying surge:
Mayotte=1.60; Guadeloupe=1.58; Martinique=1.50; [Guyane=1.66], medium [high] mortality;
A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
5/3 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0
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1/10 - “A new early warning system can predict the highest-risk coronavirus variants simply from their genetic code, alerting health authorities and vaccine developers to the potential risks months before they spread, according to a study.” ft.com/content/dc8f80…
2/10 - “The AI-based program, developed by BioNTech and north African AI start-up InstaDeep, identified more than 90% of VOCs, including the highly transmissible #Omicron strain, on average two months before their designation by the WHO.”
3/10 - “The results from the study show that the program can evaluate the risks of new variants from their spike proteins within minutes, and monitor them as they evolve nearly in real time.” biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
2/9 - Western Europe experiences rise or surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.22);
- High mort:UK=0.99;IT=1.29;FR=1.23;DE=1.17;DK=1.11; SP=1.18;LUX;PT=1.25;FL;
- Med mort: AT=1.43;IRL;NO=1.24;BE=1.27;SE;
- Low mort: ICL;NL;CH=1.27.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mort:
- Plateau/Landing: [Ukr; Pol/Slovk; Russia];
- Surging-rising: Bulg=1.33 [Croat=1.21;Czech=1.07; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.31; Latv=1.24;Lith=1.27; Romn=1.60; Slovn=1.35; Serb=1.44].
1/3 - France (R-eff=1.23) experiences very high level of #COVID19 activity, with high mortality.
360,469 cases and 228 deaths/day foreseen by Jan 18, if at same pace;
Forecasts Jan 12 to Jan 15 are prone to underestimation: tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/3 - All mainland Régions surge in #COVID19 cases:
- Very high mortality:
Corse (R-eff=1.20);
PACA=1.23;
- High mort:
AURA=1.30;
Brg-Fr-Cté=1.27;
Grd-Est=1.28:
Hts-de-Fr=1.31;
Ile-de-Fr=1.22;
Norm=1.37;
Nv-Aq=1.28;
Occit=1.28;
- Med mort:
Bret=1.28;
Ctre-Val-L=1.34;
P-de-L=1.31.
3/3 – Overseas Régions are experiencing very high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Surge:
Réunion (R-eff=1.31), with high mortality;
- Rapid and worrying surge:
Mayotte=1.62; Guadeloupe=1.48; [Martinique=1.45; Guyane=1.54], low [high] mortality;
1/10 - “As #Omicron infections spread from Tianjin to Henan Province, several regions, including Beijing, urged residents to stay put during the upcoming Spring Festival, and tightened their #COVID19 prevention policies.” globaltimes.cn/page/202201/12…
2/10 - “Anyang, a city with a population of 5 million in Central China's Henan Province, began city-wide testing and imposed strict #COVID19 prevention measures, such as stopping outbound railway, bus and taxi services, after the city reported 26 cases during the past 2 days.”
3/10 - “Most of the confirmed cases in Anyang are students from a local middle school in the city's Tangyin county. The local government has identified 1,495 close contacts and put them under quarantine. It began to test people in the whole city.”
2/9 - Western Europe experiences rise or surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.25);
- High mort:UK=1.05;IT=1.33;FR=1.23;DE=1.12;DK=1.12; SP=1.18;LUX;
- Med mort: AT=1.39;PT=1.27;CH=1.27;IRL;NO=1.29;BE=1.27;FL;
- Low mort: ICL;NL;SE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mort:
- Plateau/Landing: [Ukr; Pol/Slovk; Russia];
- Surging-rising: Bulg=1.30 [Croat=1.31;Czech=1.12; Eston=1.3; Hung=1.36; Latv=1.22;Lith=1.29; Romn=1.48; Slovn=1.37; Serb=1.47].
2/9 - Western Europe experiences rise or surge in #COVID19 new cases, with increasing mortality:
- Very high mort: GR (R-eff=1.29);
- High mort:UK=1.08;IT=1.39;FR=1.25;DE=1.18;FL;DK=1.13;
- Med mort: SP;AT=1.39;PT=1.28;CH=1.25;IRL;NO=1.32;BE=1.21;
- Low mort: ICL; NL;LUX; SE.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
Two #COVID19 profiles, with alarming [high] mort:
- Plateau-Landing: [Ukr; Pol; Slovk; Russia*];
- Surging-rising: Bulg=1.30 [Croat=1.27;Czech=1.13; Eston=1.3; Hung=1.13; Latv=1.22;Lith=1.30; Romn=1.51; Slovn=1.36; Serb=1.54].
*