Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/3 - France (R-eff=1.23) experiences very high level of #COVID19 activity, with high mortality.
360,469 cases and 228 deaths/day foreseen by Jan 18, if at same pace;
Forecasts Jan 12 to Jan 15 are prone to underestimation:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/3 - All mainland Régions surge in #COVID19 cases:
- Very high mortality:
Corse (R-eff=1.20);
PACA=1.23;
- High mort:
AURA=1.30;
Brg-Fr-Cté=1.27;
Grd-Est=1.28:
Hts-de-Fr=1.31;
Ile-de-Fr=1.22;
Norm=1.37;
Nv-Aq=1.28;
Occit=1.28;
- Med mort:
Bret=1.28;
Ctre-Val-L=1.34;
P-de-L=1.31.

3/3 – Overseas Régions are experiencing very high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Surge:
Réunion (R-eff=1.31), with high mortality;
- Rapid and worrying surge:
Mayotte=1.62; Guadeloupe=1.48; [Martinique=1.45; Guyane=1.54], low [high] mortality;

4/3 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

5/3 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0