⚠️EXCESS DEATHS in South Africa🇿🇦 are running at 130% of normal in the final 4 weeks of 2021–which translates to >10,000 excess deaths in just 4 weeks. ➡️Excess weekly deaths currently running ~3000 excess per week—SA has had large under-diagnosis like in previous waves. #Omicron 
2) to be clear on the English - “130% of normal” means 30% excess. But this is still 3000 excess per week for a population of ~60 million, which is 18% the size of the US. Not going to convert it but it’s not small. Can we please stop with the “mild”???
3) Australia also seeing surge in severe outcomes. This is not as mild as we think it will be.
https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1480983300340649985
4) To put this into perspective, @ZekeEmanuel & @celinegounder’s group advocated a tolerable excess death due to COVID of ~3000 deaths/week in US— thus, considering the US pop is 5.5 times larger than SA, then SA’s current excess is **5.5x higher** than their tolerable threshold.
5) here is my 5 point strategy to stop #COVID19 … when do we need it? Now!
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1480269574113271814
6) “Mild” my rear end…
https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1481009046966747137
7) the excess deaths in the Eastern Cape province of South Africa during #Omicron wave has actually now exceeded their Delta wave! samrc.ac.za/reports/report…
8) don’t just look at deaths alone— long term it will be #LongCovid that will harm more people - especially our kids. #LongCovidKids is no joke — and the official 🇬🇧 stats don’t lie!
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1479115498600099842
9) South Africa is now seeing very high underdiagnosis of #COVID19 during the #Omicron wave — much higher under detection compared to any wave in the past year. I think this has contributed to people being misled about “mild”
Figure by @ArielKarlinsky, excess mortality analyst.
Figure by @ArielKarlinsky, excess mortality analyst.
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