Dette betyder også, at der fortsat er opbakning til en lang række restriktioner, herunder fortsat brug af coronapas og nedlukning af natteliv. (2/3)
Den faldende bekymring betyder ikke, at folk er klar til at slippe smitten løs. Man får nemt det indtryk, når man følger debatterne på sociale medier. Men dette er endnu en påmindelse om, at dem, der taler højt på sociale medier, sjældent er repræsentative for befolkningen. (3/3)
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The end will not be easy. Moving a public out of a crisis demands as much leadership as activating the initial crisis response
A research-driven 🧵 on a key challenge of 2022 & how to deal with it
(1/13)
The graph shows the % of Danes using masks daily from a N~400,000 survey from our @HopeProject_dk
The ups-&-downs reflect when authorities required masks. It is a case of optimal crisis behavior: Immediate strong compliance when needed. Immediate relaxation when possible. (2/13)
A coordinated public response requires (1) clear advice from authorities, (2) high levels of trust in that advice, and (3) shared feelings of threat. Studies of crisis responses thus find that trust & threat are their key causes: doi.org/10.1080/002239… (3/13)
Data is from Denmark but can inform other countries in terms of the drop-off from 2nd to 3rd jab. Overall, 94.7 % of those vaccinated are willing to take the booster. Yet, there are strong age differences. Those below 40 are more reluctant. (2/4)
To understand the underlying psychological dynamics, we look at constructs from Protection Motivation Theory (doi.org/10.1080/002239…). People who feel less societal threat and have less trust in the efficacy of the authorities' advice are less likely to take the booster. (3/4)
In spring '21 vaccine acceptance rose as vaccines were rolled out.
Then came news of rare but severe side-effects from the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Our new paper shows that this caused international vaccine hesitancy: doi.org/10.1016/j.vacc….
A thread on what can be learned🧵(1/9)
In March '21, news emerged about blood clots following vaccination with AZ (science.org/content/articl…). Public attention grew strongly when 3 Nordic countries suspended the use of the vaccine altogether on March 11, as seen from this plot of search volumes. (2/9)
A previous study concluded that this suspension didn't create hesitancy: ugeskriftet.dk/dmj/sustained-…. Yet, this study compared hesitancy from two time points a month apart. If vaccine acceptance was trending upwards, this may be a problematic analysis strategy. (3/9)
Smitten sætter rekord, omikron dominerer - og julen står for døren.
Alt det betyder, at borgerne i den seneste uge har skærpet opmærksomheden på at undgå kontakt og dermed smitte.
🧵(1/4)
Borgernes bekymring er relativt høj og steg kraftigt, da man opdagede at også vinteren '21 ville blive en corona-vinter. Bekymringen er dog ikke steget siden omikron spredte sig. Det tyder på, at borgerne stadig er afventende ift. hvad omikron betyder for vinteren. (2/4)
Samtidig er der dog en bevidsthed om, at anbefalingerne lige nu ikke er tilstrækkeligt at stoppe smittespredningen. (3/4)
Ovenstående grad viser den totale villighed i befolkningen. Grafen nedenfor viser andelen blandt dem, der har fået eller ønsker vaccination med 2 stik. (2/5)
Udover alder betyder demografi ikke det store. Uanset køn og uddannelsesniveau er villigheden til at tage næste stik stor. (3/5)
The forecast should be of wide interest as DK is intensively testing & sequencing. The situation is likely not worse here than elsewhere. It is just known.
A 🧵 on this forecast (1/9)
Some key premises for the forecast:
- The forecast includes both delta and omicron
- Waning immunity is included. It is assumed that immunity is 0.70 against O relative to D and that immunity against O wanes faster
(2/9)
More premises:
- DK is rapidly rolling out boosters to face O. 1/3 of all are boosted! This is included
- Not all restrictions are included, especially not closing of most cultural activities from today
- Includes people's voluntary behavior change as infections rise
(3/9)