Ovenstående grad viser den totale villighed i befolkningen. Grafen nedenfor viser andelen blandt dem, der har fået eller ønsker vaccination med 2 stik. (2/5)
Udover alder betyder demografi ikke det store. Uanset køn og uddannelsesniveau er villigheden til at tage næste stik stor. (3/5)
Psykologi betyder tilgengæld noget. Analyser viser, at dem, der i mindre grad oplever COVID-19 som en trussel, er mindre tilbøjelige til at sige "ja" til 3. stik, selvom de har fået de første 2. (4/5)
OBS: Det kan være svært at måle vaccinevillighed vha. surveys (nature.com/articles/s4158…). Her er vores overvejelser om undersøgelsens repræsentativitet .👇 Overordnet ser undersøgelsen ud til at være præcis, men vi forventer en lille overvurdering af den faktiske villighed. (5/5)
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In spring '21 vaccine acceptance rose as vaccines were rolled out.
Then came news of rare but severe side-effects from the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Our new paper shows that this caused international vaccine hesitancy: doi.org/10.1016/j.vacc….
A thread on what can be learned🧵(1/9)
In March '21, news emerged about blood clots following vaccination with AZ (science.org/content/articl…). Public attention grew strongly when 3 Nordic countries suspended the use of the vaccine altogether on March 11, as seen from this plot of search volumes. (2/9)
A previous study concluded that this suspension didn't create hesitancy: ugeskriftet.dk/dmj/sustained-…. Yet, this study compared hesitancy from two time points a month apart. If vaccine acceptance was trending upwards, this may be a problematic analysis strategy. (3/9)
Smitten sætter rekord, omikron dominerer - og julen står for døren.
Alt det betyder, at borgerne i den seneste uge har skærpet opmærksomheden på at undgå kontakt og dermed smitte.
🧵(1/4)
Borgernes bekymring er relativt høj og steg kraftigt, da man opdagede at også vinteren '21 ville blive en corona-vinter. Bekymringen er dog ikke steget siden omikron spredte sig. Det tyder på, at borgerne stadig er afventende ift. hvad omikron betyder for vinteren. (2/4)
Samtidig er der dog en bevidsthed om, at anbefalingerne lige nu ikke er tilstrækkeligt at stoppe smittespredningen. (3/4)
The forecast should be of wide interest as DK is intensively testing & sequencing. The situation is likely not worse here than elsewhere. It is just known.
A 🧵 on this forecast (1/9)
Some key premises for the forecast:
- The forecast includes both delta and omicron
- Waning immunity is included. It is assumed that immunity is 0.70 against O relative to D and that immunity against O wanes faster
(2/9)
More premises:
- DK is rapidly rolling out boosters to face O. 1/3 of all are boosted! This is included
- Not all restrictions are included, especially not closing of most cultural activities from today
- Includes people's voluntary behavior change as infections rise
(3/9)
Western societies were already frail when COVID-19 hit.
In a new paper, we show that the pandemic, and the fatigue from it, eroded trust in democracy further: psyarxiv.com/qjmct
With omicron, stronger restrictions are again put in place & the erosion will deepen.
🧵(1/7)
Over 2020, we tracked 6000 citizens from 🇺🇸+🇮🇹+🇩🇰+🇭🇺 & their views of key relationships in society: Horizontal relationships of solidarity between citizens + vertical relationships of trust between citizens & the state. We used measures with clear pre-pandemic benchmarks. (2/7)
We pool across multiple indicators and standardize with pre-pandemic scores to track changes from after the pandemic hit. Overall, we see little consistent change in solidarity. The pandemic has not been a crisis in the relationship between citizens. (3/7)
HOPE-projektet bidrog til den langsigtede strategi mod COVID-19, "Hverdag med øget beredskab": fm.dk/media/25241/3-…. (som figuren 👆 er fra)
Inputtet gav anledning til følgende anbefaling i hovedrapporten (fm.dk/media/25157/hv…).
Den har ikke været vigtigere end nu. (2/12)
Den seneste HOPE-rapport viser, at borgerne har en markant faldende optimisme (github.com/Hopeproject202…). Samtidig er der bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet, der er på højde med 2. bølge. (3/12)
In the next days, graphs (like👇) will show explosions of omicron & lockdowns will re-appear across Europe.
To motivate fatigued publics, it is key to not just appeal to fear. Communication should help people cope & envision how to pull thru.
An evidence-based 🧵 on how. (1/5)
Studies on crisis communication argues that good communication needs to identify the problem *and* tell people how to deal with the problem (doi.org/10.1111/bjhp.1…). The "through-the-roof"-graphs only does the former. (2/5)
In Jan 2021 with alpha, we used epidemic modelling to draw a graph that both identified the problem *and* spoke to the hope of dealing with the problem: psyarxiv.com/gxcyn/. It shows the race between variants & vaccines and the need for distancing until vaccines arrive. (3/5)