The forecast should be of wide interest as DK is intensively testing & sequencing. The situation is likely not worse here than elsewhere. It is just known.
A 🧵 on this forecast (1/9)
Some key premises for the forecast:
- The forecast includes both delta and omicron
- Waning immunity is included. It is assumed that immunity is 0.70 against O relative to D and that immunity against O wanes faster
(2/9)
More premises:
- DK is rapidly rolling out boosters to face O. 1/3 of all are boosted! This is included
- Not all restrictions are included, especially not closing of most cultural activities from today
- Includes people's voluntary behavior change as infections rise
(3/9)
The models are based on this data from the spread of O in the five Danish regions. In the capital region ("Hovedstaden"), where most infections occur, O is to have a daily growth rate of .30, a doubling time of 2.3 days and a daily growth of 35 %. (4/9)
The core model is this showing the estimated cases over Xmas. The orange curve is D, the green is O and the purple is the combined. There are 2*2 scenarios: (a) how fast the immunity wanes for O relative to D and (b) whether O spreads 1.5 or 2 times as fast as D. (5/9)
Depending on this, the models predicts from 9.000 to 45.000 cases. As we have already been above 9.000 this week, the lower-bound seems too low. (6/9)
The key Q is how this translates into hospitalizations. This depends on the virulence of O. Fig 3 assumes similar virulence as D. Fig 4 assumes 50 % of the virulence of D. (7/9)
During our 2nd wave, daily hospitalizations were ~150 for ~3 weeks. The upper-bound of all models reach this but in the best case scenarios we will be able pull through with current interventions. The rapid roll-out of boosters is critical here. (8/9)
As the report notes there are many caveats and uncertainties. But overall the models in the report have been good at forecasting infection growth over the fall, as this fig shows. Of course, the uncertainties related to the transmission & virulence of O may change that. (9/9)
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Western societies were already frail when COVID-19 hit.
In a new paper, we show that the pandemic, and the fatigue from it, eroded trust in democracy further: psyarxiv.com/qjmct
With omicron, stronger restrictions are again put in place & the erosion will deepen.
🧵(1/7)
Over 2020, we tracked 6000 citizens from 🇺🇸+🇮🇹+🇩🇰+🇭🇺 & their views of key relationships in society: Horizontal relationships of solidarity between citizens + vertical relationships of trust between citizens & the state. We used measures with clear pre-pandemic benchmarks. (2/7)
We pool across multiple indicators and standardize with pre-pandemic scores to track changes from after the pandemic hit. Overall, we see little consistent change in solidarity. The pandemic has not been a crisis in the relationship between citizens. (3/7)
HOPE-projektet bidrog til den langsigtede strategi mod COVID-19, "Hverdag med øget beredskab": fm.dk/media/25241/3-…. (som figuren 👆 er fra)
Inputtet gav anledning til følgende anbefaling i hovedrapporten (fm.dk/media/25157/hv…).
Den har ikke været vigtigere end nu. (2/12)
Den seneste HOPE-rapport viser, at borgerne har en markant faldende optimisme (github.com/Hopeproject202…). Samtidig er der bekymring for hospitalernes kapacitet, der er på højde med 2. bølge. (3/12)
In the next days, graphs (like👇) will show explosions of omicron & lockdowns will re-appear across Europe.
To motivate fatigued publics, it is key to not just appeal to fear. Communication should help people cope & envision how to pull thru.
An evidence-based 🧵 on how. (1/5)
Studies on crisis communication argues that good communication needs to identify the problem *and* tell people how to deal with the problem (doi.org/10.1111/bjhp.1…). The "through-the-roof"-graphs only does the former. (2/5)
In Jan 2021 with alpha, we used epidemic modelling to draw a graph that both identified the problem *and* spoke to the hope of dealing with the problem: psyarxiv.com/gxcyn/. It shows the race between variants & vaccines and the need for distancing until vaccines arrive. (3/5)
The Danish government just announced new restrictions to hinder the spread of omicron
The background are these data on the rise of omicron cases in Denmark & the vaccination status of those infected, suggesting rapid spread & some evasion of 2 vaccine doses for infection
Note that the number of cases is small and we don't know how many vaccinated vs. unvaccinated were exposed. So, interpret with extreme caution.
(2/3)
Restrictions are:
- Closing night life
- Closing venues with 50+ standing guests
- Early closing of schools for Xmas
- Shorter period in which vaxx gives valid corona passport (to 7 months)
- Encourage working from home
Would we have dealt better with COVID-19 without social media?
The idea of an "infodemic" may suggest so.
As a social media researcher involved in the covid-response, my answer is a strong "no". To react, info needs to be faster than the virus. On social media, it is.
🧵(1/8)
In a history of epidemics, Rosenberg describes patterns extraordinarily similar to now (jstor.org/stable/20025233). With one difference: This time countries could react *before* "bodies accumulated". Part of the reason: Rapid information-sharing via media & social media. (2/8)
E.g.: Whistleblowers in Wuhan used social media to warn.(france24.com/en/asia-pacifi…). Also, the #FlattenTheCurve hashtag helped billions understand what needed to be done. 2 things spread across the globe in 2020: COVID-19 & the idea of distancing. The latter was quicker. (3/8)
🚨What motivates parents to vaccinate their child against COVID-19?
Evidence from 🇩🇰 shows that parents balance concerns of side-effects & motivations to normalize society & childrens lives: psyarxiv.com/8e49j/
Concern is higher among parents of younger children. 🧵(1/6)
We surveyed 791 parents of Danish children aged between 6 and 15, recruited via random population sampling. Overall, vaccination willingness were high (& likely overestimated due to sampling bias) but depended crucially on the age of the child. (2/6)
To understand the considerations underlying these decisions, we developed a stepwise theoretical model of the vaccination decision and measured a range of considerations. (3/6)