My colleagues were not short of words to describe this summit today & this is probably no bad thing. I too used the term ‘historic’ to describe it, referring to the long way we have come...& entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in."
"Now we are starting to build up our cooperation, and so I would agree overall that this is indeed an important stage in building a full and productive partnership between Russia and NATO." 2/
"Incidentally, even the declaration approved at the end of our talks states that we seek to develop a strategic partnership. This is not a chance choice of words, but signals that we have succeeded in putting the difficult period in our relations behind us now." 3/
"the period of distance in our relations and claims against each other is over now. We view the future with optimism and will work on developing relations between Russia and NATO in all areas." 4/
I didnt make those words up. They were spoken by a Russian president at a NATO-Russia Council meeting in Lisbon in 2010. You have to ignore a lot of inconvenient facts to claim that Russia & NATO have been in conflict for 30 years. I get why Putin does that. But others shouldn't.

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More from @McFaul

10 Jan
The abstract theoretical discussion among academics on the merits of a guarantee to not expand NATO or not is completely divorced from American domestic politics. Biden would be absolutely pummelled by his domestic critics if he even hinted at such a concession. THREAD 1/
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Reminds me of talk about missile defense limits in the New START Treaty. Some had theoretical discussions about the relationship between offensive and defensive strategic systems. But politically, everyone knew that any constraint on MD was a poison pill for the treaty. 3/
Read 4 tweets
6 Jan
I remember writing foreign policy transition documents for our new Obama government. One can plan in isolation all you want. But other people and governments get a vote. 1/
The key to a successful foreign policy is not only what you aspire to do but how well you adjust your plans when, as mom likes to say, "shit happens." 2/
A year ago, Biden and team aspired to increase focus on China, reduce focus on the greater Middle East, and maintain the SQ on Russia. It was a good plan. Generally, I supported it. 3/
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations..." 1/
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2 Jan
Extraordinary statement by "President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö’s New Year’s Speech on 1 January 2022" presidentti.fi/en/speeches/pr… 1/ THREAD
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31 Dec 21
Read this thread. Guess who said all these nice, cooperative things about NATO? Guess when they were said? 1/. THREAD.
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, shedding some of the illusions we perhaps had back in the 1990s, and entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in. 3/
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30 Dec 21
"Modernization theories, however, are bad at point predictions. Agency theories also deliver little predictive power about the specific moments of regime change...." 1/ THREAD
... since chance, fortuna, mistakes, or unexpected exogenous shocks (such as economic meltdown, war, or the death of a leader) always seem to play a major role in these models. 2/
Both structural and agency theoretical traditions shed only faint light on current regime stability or guidance about future change. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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