Share this page!

AllThingsVentured Profile picture
Twitter logo
15 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Interesting to revisit this tweet from Oct 1. In the same vein of what @twebs recently put together with the double dog index.

$UAN and $AFMJF have exploded higher while $NMM has pulled back. $NMM looking cheap at $25 with analysts expecting $19.59 eps in 2022.
Here is an updated chart of the 3:
These three companies didn't suddenly get expensive in May and cheap again in October. They have been crazy cheap the whole time and just needed a supportive market regime to move higher.

We are back in that market regime where crazy cheap stuff is moving higher fast.
Will we see a catch-up trade for $NMM?

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with AllThingsVentured

AllThingsVentured Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AllVentured

AllThingsVentured Profile picture
16 Jan
1/ Early indications point to #HungaTonga eruption being comparable in size to the largest eruption in the last century: Mt. Pinatubo in Philippines.

If this is in fact the case, it is likely to have major implications for climate, weather, and markets in coming years.

A 🧵...
2/ Leaning on data collected after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 as the closest modern proxy, we can make some make some reasonable predictions on what impact #HungaTonga may have:

The huge amount of reflective ash released from Pinatubo caused significant global cooling: Image
3/ This reflective ash reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the earth's surface by as much as 10% immediately after eruption and continued to reduce sunlight for 3 years afterward Image
Read 11 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
9 Jan
1/ Container ship backlog continues to grow steadily DESPITE the following:

✅ Reduced factory output from rolling blackouts in 🇨🇳
✅ Cancelled liner services and fewer ships calling LA
✅ Biden admin and other govt best attempts to solve
2/ Before congestion can begin easing it must stop getting worse.

Omicron will massively impair port throughput in Jan/Feb as large percentages of port workers will be out sick. Workers weren't keeping up when they were at full staff.
3/ Today's backlog of ships represents more than an entire month of imports.

Whatever portion of throughput is lost in January to omicron will be added to this backlog. Reasonable to expect a 30% slowdown and Backlog to reach nearly 1.5 months of imports by February.
Read 13 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
6 Oct 21
27% of APR energy's ($ATCO) mobile gas and diesel generator fleet was off contract at the end of Q2. This power crisis is the goldilocks scenario for APR's business. If they don't have the whole fleet contracted at enormous margins shortly something is seriously wrong. Image
If APR unit revenue was $198M in 2020 at 69% utilization, that means at 95% utilization it would be close to $275m at the same rates. Even if they don't get a premium for this environment, the higher utilization still adds $.31 per share to net income annually.
Average remaining contract length at the end of Q2 was 1.6 years which means that mobile generators are constantly coming off contract. If they are sold out, it would mean that these would fetch much higher rates as they come off contract.
Read 4 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
12 Sep 21
Global shipping fleet in perspective thanks to UNCTAD. New ship order books for #tankers and #drybulk are at decade lows, yet shipyards are full through 2023-end with orders from other sectors. Sure looks like a massive shortage of aggregate shipbuilding capacity coming 2024+
Shipyard capacity has been declining for a decade and 2022 will be the most painful year for shipbuilders yet. Orders have since recovered, but many yards have locked in contracts at unprofitable levels due to high steel prices and could post losses through 2023.
Although it is obvious that more shipbuilding capacity will be needed to replace the surge of ships ordered during the last boom, shipbuilders will only begin repairing balance sheets in 2024 and will need years of profitability before planning new capacity.
Read 5 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
31 Aug 21
1/ Is the new Navios Partners $NMM turning over a new leaf?

They took the time to speak with me after the conference call this morning.

My takeaway: There seems to be a genuine interest to improve investor relations and lay a foundation to close the NAV gap in the future.
2/ I don't love tankers right now as I don't expect to see profitable tanker rates anytime soon, but the $NNA deal terms were fair on a NAV for NAV basis and we could very well be at the bottom of the tanker asset value cycle and expect a very strong tanker market 2023 forward.
3/ The first major thing to love about this deal is the scale it creates with the largest US listed ship owner by vessel count. This will be pretty hard to ignore going forward. I expect more analyst coverage, transparency, and a narrowing of the massive gap to NAV.
Read 6 tweets
AllThingsVentured Profile picture
10 Jul 21
1/ ESG will be a huge tailwind for commodity trade in the coming years. Higher quality ores take significantly less energy to smelt. High quality supplies from further afield will replace lower quality supplies closer to production centers requiring far more #drybulk ton miles
2/ Using steel making as a case study we can see this effect with the 2 major steel making ingredients: iron ore and met coal. With capital markets closing off to coal investments, only the highest quality met coal projects will attract capital and prices will remain elevated:
3/ High coal prices combined with existing and impending carbon taxes will incentivize the highest quality iron ore supplies which use less coal. The market is already pricing this in with futures for high grade price premiums widening significantly in future years:
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @AllVentured has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @AllVentured!

Read all threads by @AllVentured

:(