1/ Early indications point to #HungaTonga eruption being comparable in size to the largest eruption in the last century: Mt. Pinatubo in Philippines.
If this is in fact the case, it is likely to have major implications for climate, weather, and markets in coming years.
A 🧵...
If this is in fact the case, it is likely to have major implications for climate, weather, and markets in coming years.
A 🧵...
https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1482379316025516046
2/ Leaning on data collected after the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 as the closest modern proxy, we can make some make some reasonable predictions on what impact #HungaTonga may have:
The huge amount of reflective ash released from Pinatubo caused significant global cooling:
The huge amount of reflective ash released from Pinatubo caused significant global cooling:
3/ This reflective ash reduced the amount of sunlight reaching the earth's surface by as much as 10% immediately after eruption and continued to reduce sunlight for 3 years afterward
4/ Not only did Pinatubo cool the planet, it was also attributed to severe weather events in the following years including the "storm of the century" with record cold temperatures across the Eastern US.
5/ What comes to mind with cooler temperatures, less sunlight, and severe cold weather events?
Energy infrastructure and food production. Two very 'hot' topics even before a likely impact from #HungaTonga.
Energy infrastructure and food production. Two very 'hot' topics even before a likely impact from #HungaTonga.
6/ Europe is already experiencing record high gas prices as the world is short on energy. Unlike Pinatubo in 1991, the world now gets a meaningful amount of its energy from wind and solar. 10% reduced sunlight would now have a meaningful impact on global energy production.
7/ Not only are energy prices reaching record highs in some parts of the world, electric grids that depend on renewables are less capable of dealing with cold shocks like the deadly one that took down the grid in Texas in February 2021: theguardian.com/us-news/2021/j…
8/ Now imagine a 'storm of the century' like the one attributed to Pinatubo in 1993. If 10 million households lost power then, it is likely to be much worse with today's energy infrastructure consisting of far less fossil fuel and nuclear base load capacity.
9/ Grain production which may be curtailed by high fertilizer prices (due to high energy prices) in the coming year could also be negatively affected by reduced sunlight, causing a feedback loop requiring more acres and more fertilizer to fill the gap.
wattagnet.com/articles/5791-…
wattagnet.com/articles/5791-…
10/ A sudden shift from La Niña to El Niño could also mean reduced grain production in China and higher yields in other regions meaning more long haul grain trade #drybulk sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
11/ Although it is very early to start making predictions, it seems #HungaTonga will have a major impact in the coming years.
My quick takeaways:
1) Higher energy prices and increased fossil fuel use
2) Higher food prices and production dislocation
3) Extreme weather events
My quick takeaways:
1) Higher energy prices and increased fossil fuel use
2) Higher food prices and production dislocation
3) Extreme weather events
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
