"But what if Putin really wants to talk about European security? If so, U.S., Canadian and European leaders should embrace the opportunity." 1/ THREAD
Some of the great pillars of European security of the past — the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty, the Vienna Document, the Paris Charter, the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances for Ukraine and 2/
"the Helsinki Final Act — are either now defunct or no longer serving their originally intended purposes.
Many of the demands in the draft treaties now floated by Putin, however are nonstarters and violate agreements Moscow signed before." 3/
"To mention but one example, great powers cannot dictate to other countries what multilateral organizations that can and cannot join — contrary to Moscow’s expressed desire to limit’s Ukraine choices regarding affiliations with European security institutions." 4/
"That violates the Helsinki Final Act. Still, a few ideas in the Russian treaties are worthy of discussion, including limits on arms, deployments and exercises."
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/… 5/ END THREAD

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More from @McFaul

Jan 12,
My colleagues were not short of words to describe this summit today & this is probably no bad thing. I too used the term ‘historic’ to describe it, referring to the long way we have come...& entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in."
"Now we are starting to build up our cooperation, and so I would agree overall that this is indeed an important stage in building a full and productive partnership between Russia and NATO." 2/
"Incidentally, even the declaration approved at the end of our talks states that we seek to develop a strategic partnership. This is not a chance choice of words, but signals that we have succeeded in putting the difficult period in our relations behind us now." 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 10,
The abstract theoretical discussion among academics on the merits of a guarantee to not expand NATO or not is completely divorced from American domestic politics. Biden would be absolutely pummelled by his domestic critics if he even hinted at such a concession. THREAD 1/
The Republican talking points on Biden foreign policy are already crystal clear -- "Biden is weak." That's the phrase, which will be repeated for 3 years. Weak on China. Weak on Afghanistan. & if Putin invades OR Biden gives concessions, "Weak on Russia." 2/
Reminds me of talk about missile defense limits in the New START Treaty. Some had theoretical discussions about the relationship between offensive and defensive strategic systems. But politically, everyone knew that any constraint on MD was a poison pill for the treaty. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 6,
I remember writing foreign policy transition documents for our new Obama government. One can plan in isolation all you want. But other people and governments get a vote. 1/
The key to a successful foreign policy is not only what you aspire to do but how well you adjust your plans when, as mom likes to say, "shit happens." 2/
A year ago, Biden and team aspired to increase focus on China, reduce focus on the greater Middle East, and maintain the SQ on Russia. It was a good plan. Generally, I supported it. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Jan 3,
"Biden should state publicly his desire to reinvigorate diplomacy to end the war in eastern Ukraine, including naming a senior envoy to represent the United States in these negotiations..." 1/
"... and insisting that the United States formally join Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France to reinvigorate the now moribund Normandy talks tasked with ending the war in eastern Ukraine." 2/
"Such an announcement would dispel the absurd Russian claim that Washington and Kyiv are scheming to restore Ukrainian sovereignty over Donbas by military force and..." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Jan 2,
Extraordinary statement by "President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö’s New Year’s Speech on 1 January 2022" presidentti.fi/en/speeches/pr… 1/ THREAD
Money line: "And let it be stated once again: Finland’s room to manoeuvre and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide." 2/
"NATO’s business is the so-called Open Door policy, the continuance of which has been repeatedly confirmed to Finland, also publicly." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Dec 31, 2021
Read this thread. Guess who said all these nice, cooperative things about NATO? Guess when they were said? 1/. THREAD.
"My colleagues were not short of words to describe this [NATO] summit today, and this is probably no bad thing. I too used the term ‘historic’ to describe it, referring to the long way we have come... 2/
, shedding some of the illusions we perhaps had back in the 1990s, and entering the period of productive construction that the start of this decade ushered in. 3/
Read 18 tweets

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