Thread by @jgotkowska

1/🧵As we are entering phase 2⃣ of the stand-up with Russia over the future of European security, it's worth to sum-up phase 1⃣, in which Russian and Western positions have been clarified in a series of meeting in Geneva/🇺🇸🇷🇺, Brussels/NATO-Russia Council, Vienna/OSCE, Brest/🇪🇺

2/The starting point was 🇷🇺military build-up at 🇺🇦 borders in autumn & formulation of 🇷🇺demands for “security guarantees” from US/NATO on stopping NATO’s enlargement, withdrawing allied forces from the eastern flank, halting military cooperation with🇺🇦a.o.
osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/…

3/The West agreed to talk to 🇷🇺, but first allies&partners engaged in a wide consultation process among themselves, i.e. 🇺🇸-NATO-🇪🇺-partner nations of both orgs. This was important as some voiced concerns about 🇺🇸🇷🇺 deals on European security “above the heads of Europeans”.

4/As a consequence a double-track approach of the West towards 🇷🇺 was developed. It includes: 1⃣sticking to rules on which European security is based (sovereign rights of states to freely choose the course of their foreign and security policies, right to self/collective defence).

5/2⃣ being open to a limited dialogue with Russia in 🇺🇸🇷🇺 talks, within NATO-Russia Council and in the OSCE. At the same time the US, NATO and the EU repeat their warnings about serious consequences and high costs in case of further Russian aggression on Ukraine.

6/This double-track approach is an outcome of differing Western perceptions of 🇷🇺, political-social and economic contexts and traditions of developing Russia and security policies. The Western stance is a compromise which tries to reconcile allied positions.

7/The West doesn't want a military confrontation, diplomacy is the preferred way BUT without fulfilling 🇷🇺demands that equal compromising core principles on which European security&international order are built. Therefore:“no-go” issues + offer of a limited dialogue

8/In Geneva 🇺🇸 declared that it will not discuss with 🇷🇺 guarantees for: halting NATO enlargement, stopping military cooperation with 🇺🇦, withdrawing US forces from the eastern flank or issues directly concerning allies or Ukraine without their involvement.

9/🇺🇸 declared that they are ready to talk about the future of certain missile systems in Europe (context is the now defunct INF Treaty), reciprocal limits on the size and scope of military exercises, and improving their transparency.

10/In Brussels NATO confirmed that the open door policy will be continued as well as NATO's efforts to be able to defend all allies, i.e. the enhanced Forward Presence on the eastern flank a.o. will be maintained.

11/At the same time NATO is open for dialogue with 🇷🇺 on transparency of military exercises, prevention of dangerous military incidents, space&cyber threats reduction, or arms control, disarmament & non-proliferation.

12/NATO wants Russia also to re-open its permanent mission to NATO (🇷🇺 decided to close it in October 2021) & NATO’s military liaison mission as well as information office in Moscow (🇷🇺 withdrew their accreditation in October 2021).

13/The West wishes to revive a dialogue on European security also in the OSCE. The positions of 🇪🇺🇺🇸 were closely aligned: there is a will for dialogue combined with red lines – discussions need to be based on non-negotiable principles on which European security is based.

14/What about the EU? Before US/NATO-Russia talks some demanded to include 🇪🇺 into the meetings. After wide consultations between 🇺🇸-NATO-🇪🇺 the European Commission & @JosepBorrellF felt to be included into forging common position & underlined unified Western stance.

15/What is 🇷🇺 answer? Mixed signals with regard to the dialogue linked with threats of military consequences if all of Russian demands are not accepted, Russian military build-up around Ukraine, infos about possible Russian provocations.

16/What is 🇷🇺 strategy? Intensified military pressure on 🇺🇦 & the West, cyber attacks, use of energy deliveries, disinformation campaigns. All to diffuse the Western stance, divide the allies, deepen internal divisions in key countries - 🇺🇸&🇩🇪 to obtain far-reaching concessions.

17/What should be the strategy of the West? Sticking to the 🇺🇸NATO🇪🇺line, withstanding 🇷🇺pressure without entering rotten compromises that will provoke further demands, imposing sanctions in case of an aggression, strengthening defences of the eastern flank in such a scenario.

18/In Europe all eyes are on Germany, that sends confusing signals. If Berlin enters into any side deals with Russia, it will only embolden the aggressor. A worthwhile read👉“Russia policy of the German government needs a substantial correction”
zeit.de/zustimmung?url…