My latest for @19_forty_five

I've always thought China overvalues N Korea as a 'buffer.'

TLDR:

"China’s support for NK alienates much of the world. It undercuts any claim to Chinese principled or benevolent leadership. It tars Beijing with partial

1

19fortyfive.com/2022/01/could-…
responsibility for every outlandish act Pyongyang engages in. It provides ongoing justification for a large US presence in northeast Asia. It empowers a nuclear-armed regime which does not listen to Beijing and routinely violates the most basic norms of global governance. It

2
spreads corruption and rot in the Chinese banking system, and among party and military elites with connections to NK. It proliferates. It dealt meth in China. And the conventional deterrent value purchased for all this headache is decreasing as US/allied technology outstrips

3
anything NK can field, bar its nukes - which China opposes and are also pointed at Beijing to keep it out of NK affairs."

That's an ally? Good grief.

Yes, given the brewing cold war with the US, China will likely continue to bail out NK, but I'd say the equation is changing.

4

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More from @Robert_E_Kelly

Jan 14,
The decline of the liberal international order and the United States are not the same thing.

An LIO requires liberal foreign policy behavior from even illiberal states, esp. China & Russia. This was always a tenuous outcome, and it required huge liberal power - i.e., American

1
unipolarity and strong coordination in the Free World - to push liberal global rules (WTO, IMF) on states ideologically & nationalistically uncomfortable with extreme American dominance.
As unipolarity has receded in the last decade, so has the ability of the US and Free World

2
to push China, Russia, and others into an LIO. Hence all the talk about its collapse.

This is mostly the result of China's rise and consequent US relative decline. But the US worsened this drift back toward bipolarity by repeated errors like Iraq, the Great Recession, and

3
Read 6 tweets
Jan 11,
Specifically, doesn’t an ‘end of war’ declaration imply that N Korea will stop its border provocations?

This is both an obvious and persuasive argument for the EoW.

So why aren’t proponents making it?

I’d bet many skeptics would oppose it much less if this were part of it.

1
The reason they’re not making this obvious argument is also obvious, and illustrates why the whole EoW debate is pointless:

N Korea will not stop provoking SK or even consider surrendering that card - even though it’s the very logic of the declaration!

And even if NK said it

2
would, no one serious would believe them.

NK can’t make credible commitments on any major issues anymore. Their long history of mendacity and provocation undercuts the whole point of something as grandiose as this EoW.

This is why I always argue to start small with NK. Go

3
Read 6 tweets
Jan 6,
The S Korean right is gonna blow an election they easily could win. 5 years after Park Geun Hye, & they still haven’t got their act together.

SK left has policy ideas, like them or not. I’m not sure anyone knows what the right stands for besides a vaguely hawkish foreign policy
This is what I mean. Watch the S Korean right self-destruct for no good reason

m-en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202201…
This is why S Korea needs a functional conservative party. The S Korean left’s toadying to N Korea is just appalling
Read 4 tweets
Oct 22, 2021
Who else prefers Leto to Paul Atreides?

Leto is a mediocre, basically good person struggling & failing w/ forces beyond him. He wants to rule consensually, feels a sense of duty to his liege, loves his family, & dies for these values. This makes him relatable and sympathetic.

1
Paul starts as a brat (like Luke) and just gets worse. He is surrounded by religious fanatics and becomes one himself in fairly short order. He drinks the kool-aid that he is some kind of messianic semi-divine being, a mash-up of Jesus and Plato's philosopher-king, and then

2
gets carried along to lead an interplanetary religious holocaust killing tens of billions

I've never understood how Paul & Fremen are supposed to be sympathetic. The ancien regime may have been corrupt & decrepit, but Harkonnens & Emperor weren't murdering ppl in the billions

3
Read 5 tweets
Oct 4, 2021
Worth remembering just what a boondoggle give-away to North Korea the Kaesong Industrial Zone was. 'Detente' it was not:

"Throughout its life cycle until its closure in 2016, the Kaesong complex faced nagging questions - not only about slave labor & unsafe working conditions,

1
but also about the use of its proceeds to fund Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program...Kaesong provided Pyongyang nearly $100 million a year in hard currency. No one but Kim Jong-un really knew where the money went. The N Korean workers at Kaesong were selected by the regime, had
2
no rights to strike or bargain for better working conditions, were not permitted to speak to their S Korean managers, and received as little as $2 a month out of $130 a month in “wages” paid to the N Korean government by the S Korean manufacturers who invested there. None of

3
Read 4 tweets
Sep 29, 2021
Good op-ed from @JRubinBlogger on why the Afghan withdrawal went about as well as can realistically be expected.

The evacuation was planned and moved out more people than expected despite early chaotic imagery.

Most Americans did get out, and the US

1
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
gov't warned them for months but can't force people to go

There is no clean exit from a lost war with a brutal, mendacious counter-party like the Taliban. Obviously

The Trump Doha deal set the frame within which Biden operated, and had we violated it,

2
crooked.com/articles/biden…
the Taliban would hit back harshly. A small US force in Afghanistan could not have contained that offensive.

GOP critics knew the deal was Trump's and supported it. So most of the Fox critics about 'leaving our people behind' were bad faith.

The real issue is American

3
Read 6 tweets

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