Thread by @MylesMcNulty

There are so many ways to arrive at the conclusion that #AVCT's valuation is nonsensical.

Another, beyond the below, is to look at #APTA - owner of a first generation antibody mimetic platform, Aptamers - that recently listed on AIM.

On Friday it surpassed £100m mkt cap. 1/14

https://twitter.com/TheEthicalTout/status/1483026203577663489

For each of its past two FYs, #APTA has generated no more than £1m in revenue.

The Affimer platform is a next generation antibody mimetic platform. It was "engineered to overcome many of the problems associated with aptamers or with antibodies". ⬇️

2/14

avacta.com/2014-06-20/

To my knowledge, #APTA (or its partners) has not put in place manufacturing capacity of 30+ million per month to sell propreitary, Aptamer-based SARS-CoV-2 LFTs.

#AVCT has.

So @avacta not only possesses a next gen., superior antibody mimetic platform; but from it has...

3/14

...established a substantially larger revenue-generating capacity in the near term.

So for me, #AVCT's Affimer platform (Therapeutics and Diagnostics combined) deserves a substantial premium to #APTA's mkt cap.

But even if we were to give Affimers ZERO premium over... 4/14

...the Aptamer platform, then that would still leave only circa £80m of #AVCT's mkt cap attributable to pre CISION.

£80m, for a technology that - if proved in man - could ultimately enjoy long-term peak sales in the many dozens of $ billions per annum.

A platform that... 5/14

...could completely transform oncology.

In fact, what's astonishing to think about is that @avacta already has a very good idea of what it has, in pre CISION. It has been sitting on data from (at least) the first cohort, for many weeks now.

If there had been NO improvement 6/14

...in delivery (i.e. safety profile) over standard doxorubicin - #AVCT would have ended the trial and informed the market.

I am extremely confident that (at least!) some improvement has been made.

The FDA looked at the initial data, and then gave @avacta the green... 7/14

...light to expand the trial into the US.

And #AVCT's CEO himself said, almost two months after the trial commenced,

"We're VERY pleased with the positive progress..."

(Thanks @tom_the_bomb__ for the clip below).

8/14

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1482738026782543872

AVA6000 (and in fact, the whole of the pre CISION platform) is based on a drug that already works. A highly successful, long-used chemotherapy.

pre CISION is simply a way of reducing the side-effects of chemotherapy.

It's either going to work, or it's not.

9/14

If the CEO is "very pleased", evidently something has happened in the first patient(s) dosed in cohort 1, that has yielded superior results to what the patient(s) would have experienced, had they been dosed with standard doxorubicin.

To me this is very clear. 10/14

It would seem, however, that the wider market does not take this view - or perhaps, rather, has lost faith in the company as a whole because of its failure to date to generate substantial revenues from its SARS-CoV-2 LFT.

Frankly, I am no longer concerned. That AVA6000...

11/14

...data will be published sooner or later.

I am of the view that the specificity of the targeting of pre CISION will take the wider market by shock, and that many retail who have never even heard of @avacta #AVCT will pile into it like the biannual $BTC bull stampede.

12/14

I have highlighted previously that oncology biotechs focused on targeted therapies have been acquired for $1bn to 2bn+ - WHEN they have been IN Phase 1.

Returning to peer analysis using #APTA, #AVCT's pre CISION platform is valued at £80m max.

Depression and resentment... 13/14

...over the failure to commercialize the LFT is driving the market to ignore the infinitely more valuable pre CISION platform, and the mounting evidence that it is working (at least to an extent).

#AVCT will publish the data eventually - eyes will open at last.

All IMO!

14/14