There are so many ways to arrive at the conclusion that #AVCT's valuation is nonsensical.

Another, beyond the below, is to look at #APTA - owner of a first generation antibody mimetic platform, Aptamers - that recently listed on AIM.

On Friday it surpassed £100m mkt cap. 1/14
For each of its past two FYs, #APTA has generated no more than £1m in revenue.

The Affimer platform is a next generation antibody mimetic platform. It was "engineered to overcome many of the problems associated with aptamers or with antibodies". ⬇️

2/14

avacta.com/2014-06-20/
To my knowledge, #APTA (or its partners) has not put in place manufacturing capacity of 30+ million per month to sell propreitary, Aptamer-based SARS-CoV-2 LFTs.

#AVCT has.

So @avacta not only possesses a next gen., superior antibody mimetic platform; but from it has...

3/14
...established a substantially larger revenue-generating capacity in the near term.

So for me, #AVCT's Affimer platform (Therapeutics and Diagnostics combined) deserves a substantial premium to #APTA's mkt cap.

But even if we were to give Affimers ZERO premium over... 4/14
...the Aptamer platform, then that would still leave only circa £80m of #AVCT's mkt cap attributable to pre CISION.

£80m, for a technology that - if proved in man - could ultimately enjoy long-term peak sales in the many dozens of $ billions per annum.

A platform that... 5/14
...could completely transform oncology.

In fact, what's astonishing to think about is that @avacta already has a very good idea of what it has, in pre CISION. It has been sitting on data from (at least) the first cohort, for many weeks now.

If there had been NO improvement 6/14
...in delivery (i.e. safety profile) over standard doxorubicin - #AVCT would have ended the trial and informed the market.

I am extremely confident that (at least!) some improvement has been made.

The FDA looked at the initial data, and then gave @avacta the green... 7/14
...light to expand the trial into the US.

And #AVCT's CEO himself said, almost two months after the trial commenced,

"We're VERY pleased with the positive progress..."

(Thanks @tom_the_bomb__ for the clip below).

8/14

AVA6000 (and in fact, the whole of the pre CISION platform) is based on a drug that already works. A highly successful, long-used chemotherapy.

pre CISION is simply a way of reducing the side-effects of chemotherapy.

It's either going to work, or it's not.

9/14
If the CEO is "very pleased", evidently something has happened in the first patient(s) dosed in cohort 1, that has yielded superior results to what the patient(s) would have experienced, had they been dosed with standard doxorubicin.

To me this is very clear. 10/14
It would seem, however, that the wider market does not take this view - or perhaps, rather, has lost faith in the company as a whole because of its failure to date to generate substantial revenues from its SARS-CoV-2 LFT.

Frankly, I am no longer concerned. That AVA6000...

11/14
...data will be published sooner or later.

I am of the view that the specificity of the targeting of pre CISION will take the wider market by shock, and that many retail who have never even heard of @avacta #AVCT will pile into it like the biannual $BTC bull stampede.

12/14
I have highlighted previously that oncology biotechs focused on targeted therapies have been acquired for $1bn to 2bn+ - WHEN they have been IN Phase 1.

Returning to peer analysis using #APTA, #AVCT's pre CISION platform is valued at £80m max.

Depression and resentment... 13/14
...over the failure to commercialize the LFT is driving the market to ignore the infinitely more valuable pre CISION platform, and the mounting evidence that it is working (at least to an extent).

#AVCT will publish the data eventually - eyes will open at last.

All IMO!

14/14

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More from @MylesMcNulty

Jan 14,
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel Thanks Malcolm, very kind.

The air of failure surrounding #AVCT this week on Twitter and the bulletin boards - largely from non- and ex-holders - is truly mystifying.

We will have a very good idea of whether the pre CISION platform is working, in the coming few weeks…

1/
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel …either from dose escalation in AVA6000 P1a; or from candidate selection for AVA3996.

One vital, silver lining of #AVCT’s RNS on Monday:

Alastair Smith has made it very clear that he is a man of integrity. He could have allowed M19 to continue selling MeduFlow in the EU, 2/n
@PapaDoc3333 @TrivChannel … and continue with their application to the FDA for EUA (home-use) in the US - whilst improving the strip simultaneously in the background.

All other LFT providers are doing this, after all.

The fact that AS didn’t tells us two things:

1) he will inform the market of…

3/n
Read 6 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
I came to appreciate long ago that AIM is an inefficient and irrational market.

But the share price of @avacta this week takes the biscuit. Following Monday's RNS, I was convinced we'd be at ATHs by now.

My explanation for what I think the market is missing on #AVCT ⬇️

1/25
On Monday, #AVCT announced that it had received FDA approval for its Investigational New Drug ('IND') application, to expand its Phase I clinical trial for AVA6000, into trial sites in the US.

The timing of the submission and the length of review are critical.

2/25
The FDA has a 30-day review and turnaround time. Given #AVCT announced the approval this Monday, owing to LSE disclosure laws we must assume it received the approval sometime between Friday and Sunday.

Give a few days for post / admin / comms delays, and we can assume...

3/25
Read 25 tweets
Dec 2, 2021
Happy with @Tirupatiuk's H1 results. The growth rate really is incredible, despite not being reflected to a great degree in the financials (yet).

When the acquisition of TSG completes (subject to Reserve Bank of India's approval), #TGR takes off.

1/20

voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announceme…
Firstly, #TGR's upstream mining operations.

The very small 'proof of concept' Sahamamy plant - 3,000t pa.

It only operated at 2/3 of nameplate capacity in H1 (1,060t produced; 950t sold) owing to various Covid restrictions.

Even so, it achieved a gross margin of 54%.

2/20
The second plant, Vatomina, is three times the size, at 9,000t pa. It came online this Q.

A third plant, Sahamamy 2, is now under development, and is coming online within 6 months. It will have capacity of 18,000t pa.

#TGR's nameplate capacity as at 01.07.2022: 30kt pa.

3/20
Read 20 tweets
Oct 12, 2021
The portfolio cornerstone, @avacta #AVCT, now down 6% YTD - having been +154% (290p) in April.

The PF is now more heavily weighted than ever to the stock, primarily for the impending AVA6000 data.

Acutely aware that it's a high risk strategy, but have immense conviction.

1/11
Four potential indicators to look out for in the coming weeks / months that #AVCT's targeted chemotherapy platform is working:

1) Additional hospitals start recruiting.

If the first patient(s) of the first cohort was experiencing the side-effects...2/11

clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04…
...associated with standard doxorubicin, the trial may have been halted already.

On that note, St. James's University Hospital started recruiting, AFTER #AVCT's CEO stated he was "very pleased with the positive progress", re: the first patient at Royal Marsden.

3/11
Read 11 tweets
Oct 12, 2021
Frustrating to see @Afritin_Mining trade underwater, ~5.2p average.

Tin pushing to record highs again, yet #ATM flounders 25% below the recent £13m placing at 6.0p.

Phase 1 Expansion at the Uis Mine in Namibia completes mid next year. This will be transformational for ATM.

1/6
At the current tin price ⬆️, Uis running at nameplate capacity of 1,200 tpa (post ongoing expansion works) would be generating circa £26m EBITDA on circa £36m revs.

The pilot tantalum plant to come online in next few months will provide incremental revs (although at this... 2/6
...stage, unknown), which could grow considerably. Lithium oxide should also come online at Uis Phase 1 - perhaps later next year.

At the current tin price, the expanded Uis Phase 1 (without Ta or Li credits) will have an NPV of $70m to $80m, v. #ATM's current EV of $61m.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7, 2021
A few more added to the ever-growing @Tirupatiuk holding just now.

The SP is 30% off recent highs, and is still below where it was, pre-acquisition of the Mozambique projects.

Nonsensical. The deal will give #TGR geographical diversification; a broader product range... 1/8
...(the new projects will add small flake graphite to #TGR's offering); a resource base several multiples larger; and, of course, will give @Tirupatiuk much greater production volumes in the medium term.

TGR was already targeting 84 ktpa output in Madagascar; the two new... 2/8
...projects would bring into the fold a potential further 158 ktpa in Mozambique. A 188% increase in total target output for #TGR, over the medium term.

Since the acquisition news, TGR has also brought online its second plant in Madagascar, increasing nameplate capacity... 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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