Covid-19 and deprivation, again.

The cumulative per capita burden of cases of Covid-19 across English local authorities is correlated with the extent of deprivation (R=0.52, p<0.001).

Deprivation: gov.uk/government/sta… (file 10, LA summaries)
Cases: theguardian.com/world/2021/dec…
Leafy, affluent LAs in the bottom left - low Covid-19 cases, low proportion of LA’s population living in the most deprived LSOAs in the country.

Deliveroo, frontline and insecure employment top right - higher Covid-19 per capita. Image
Index of Deprivation contains subscales of Income Deprivation; Employment Deprivation; Education, Skills and Training Deprivation; Health Deprivation and #Disability; Crime; Barriers to Housing and Services; Living Environment Deprivation (might interest you, @Orla_Hegarty).
Index of Deprivation also contains two supplementary indices: the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) and the Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI).

Some LA's have revealed repeated, unresolved (probably) *environmental* Covid-19 risk.
Obviously similar correlations between deprivation Covid-19 will exist in #Ireland, both at this simplistic geographical level, and at more refined individual status levels of analysis.
It would be simple, with support & political will, to identify and remedy poor building types.

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More from @StuartDNeilson

Jan 21
The full text of the @CMOIreland's letter to the Health Minster, 20 January 2020:
gov.ie/en/collection/…
DEFINITIONS MATTER:

"56% of hospitalised cases were categorised as hospitalised for COVID-19, with the remaining 44% categorised as asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and potentially infectious."

(NOT "asymptomatic and non-infectious", as almost every news outlet claimed).
Few children, but big increase in oldest hospitalisation:

"As of 18th January 2022, age breakdown of hospitalised cases: 374 (34%) aged 80 and older, 335 (30%) aged 65-79, 176 (16%) aged 50-64, 196 (18%) aged 15-49, and 27 (2%) aged 0-14 years old."

24 December profile below: Image
Read 15 tweets
Jan 3
2.2% of the entire population has TESTED positive for Covid-19 and is currently infectious. Many more are asymptomatic or untested.

If you meet just 31 people, there is a better than 50:50 chance that at least one is currently infectious.
It is more likely that TESTS undercount CASES, and the true number is 2 to 3 times larger, i.e. it is possible that about 4% to 6% of the population is currently infectious.
On the basis of current trends, if they were to continue, #Ireland would report (if there was sufficient test capacity) 100,000 cases on around 17 January. This would be 2% infected IN A SINGLE DAY.

In reality, existing and new immunity (from infection) will limit the peak.
Read 15 tweets
Aug 25, 2021
18 further deaths from Covid-19 were announced in the past week, a total of 57 in 3 weeks of August, an increase over 37 in July. Deaths are rising exponentially, but are very much less than with similar infection levels in January.
The ratio of deaths to cases is around 0.2%-0.3%, vaccination having reduced the median age of cases to 25 years. Very high infection levels are leading to growing infection in vaccinated older and vulnerable people.
The number of cases of confirmed Covid-19 (across all ages) continues to rise at 3.1%/day (24%/week), headed towards 10,000 cases per day around 8 October. Such high infection would be associated with 20 Covid-19 deaths per day.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 25, 2021
When people say or write "anti-social behaviour" they are almost always defining "us" opposed to "them". The term is almost always used by people whose needs are fulfilled to identify people with many needs, and to label the "other" as undesirable.
"Anti-social behaviour" is almost always about competition for resources, and the exclusion of already more deprived people from shared spaces and shared resources. It is very rare to see "anti-social behaviour" defined.
In recent news reports, a whole range of youths, groups gathering, noise, pavement cycling, graffiti, arson, assault and homelessness have been bundled into "anti-social behaviour", as if they are a single issue, for which a single group is responsible.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 23, 2021
"Gilead under the guise of women’s lib"
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
"The National Center on Sexual Exploitation (NCOSE), formerly Morality in Media (MIM), is an American non-profit, anti-pornography, anti-sex-work... religious right and primarily Catholic."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_…
"Exodus Cry is a Christian non-profit advocacy organization seeking the abolition of the legal commercial sex industry, including pornography, strip clubs and sex work, as well as illegal sex trafficking."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exodus_Cry
Read 6 tweets
Aug 15, 2021
29,000 cases of Covid-19 in #Ireland in the whole of July, and 24,000 in the first 15 days of August.
Cases are rising by 3.7%/day (29%/week) and heading to 10,000 cases per day around 25 September.
0.3% of the population are currently infectious, greater than in December 2020.
There is an 8% chance of at least 1 infected person in a group of 30, and a 50% chance in a group (e.g. school, office, shop) of 250 people.
The reproduction number is 1.2, i.e. a moderately high growth rate.

(LSHTM: reproduction number 1.2, doubling time 15 days epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl… Harvard: reproduction number 1.18 metrics.covid19-analysis.org)
Read 6 tweets

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