29,000 cases of Covid-19 in #Ireland in the whole of July, and 24,000 in the first 15 days of August.
Cases are rising by 3.7%/day (29%/week) and heading to 10,000 cases per day around 25 September.
0.3% of the population are currently infectious, greater than in December 2020.
There is an 8% chance of at least 1 infected person in a group of 30, and a 50% chance in a group (e.g. school, office, shop) of 250 people.
The reproduction number is 1.2, i.e. a moderately high growth rate.

(LSHTM: reproduction number 1.2, doubling time 15 days epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl… Harvard: reproduction number 1.18 metrics.covid19-analysis.org)
About 2% of all cases are admitted to hospital. About 0.1%-0.4% of cases (i.e. 1-4 people in every thousand confirmed positive) die - far lower than in previous waves of Covid-19, but still a high burden of illness and death.
The IHME projects a further 1,400 deaths from Covid-19 between now and the end of October.
MOST of these deaths would be prevented (green line) by universal mask adherence, or other measures to limit transmission from cases.
covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=c…
The current trajectory of rising cases, hospitalisation and death is close to the upper end of NPHET's "Central" projections.

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More from @StuartDNeilson

25 Aug
18 further deaths from Covid-19 were announced in the past week, a total of 57 in 3 weeks of August, an increase over 37 in July. Deaths are rising exponentially, but are very much less than with similar infection levels in January.
The ratio of deaths to cases is around 0.2%-0.3%, vaccination having reduced the median age of cases to 25 years. Very high infection levels are leading to growing infection in vaccinated older and vulnerable people.
The number of cases of confirmed Covid-19 (across all ages) continues to rise at 3.1%/day (24%/week), headed towards 10,000 cases per day around 8 October. Such high infection would be associated with 20 Covid-19 deaths per day.
Read 9 tweets
25 Aug
When people say or write "anti-social behaviour" they are almost always defining "us" opposed to "them". The term is almost always used by people whose needs are fulfilled to identify people with many needs, and to label the "other" as undesirable.
"Anti-social behaviour" is almost always about competition for resources, and the exclusion of already more deprived people from shared spaces and shared resources. It is very rare to see "anti-social behaviour" defined.
In recent news reports, a whole range of youths, groups gathering, noise, pavement cycling, graffiti, arson, assault and homelessness have been bundled into "anti-social behaviour", as if they are a single issue, for which a single group is responsible.
Read 10 tweets
23 Aug
"Gilead under the guise of women’s lib"
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
"The National Center on Sexual Exploitation (NCOSE), formerly Morality in Media (MIM), is an American non-profit, anti-pornography, anti-sex-work... religious right and primarily Catholic."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_…
"Exodus Cry is a Christian non-profit advocacy organization seeking the abolition of the legal commercial sex industry, including pornography, strip clubs and sex work, as well as illegal sex trafficking."
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exodus_Cry
Read 6 tweets
21 Apr
Activity levels in #Ireland are fast approaching pre-pandemic levels, with Google Community Mobility levels of Parks, Residential, Grocery & pharmacy, and Workplace into above-average, non-lockdown levels of mobility.
TomTom is registering levels of congestion close to pre-pandemic 2019 traffic in #Dublin and #Cork, with congestion in #Cork now HIGHER than pre-pandemic 2019 traffic over the weekends.
(tomtom.com/en_gb/traffic-…)
Mobility and congestion returned towards pre-pandemic levels from the full school return on Monday 12 April, with high levels rising over the preceding weekend.
covid19.apple.com/mobility
google.com/covid19/mobili…
Read 10 tweets
31 Mar
Caution meets wind.

Baseline NPHET modelling predicts a substantial rise in case in the next few months. Upper end predictions are for thousands of cases per day.

Vaccination rollout (18% of over 65s so far) will have little impact on illness and death in the short term.
"Our health system remains extremely fragile & health care workforce is exhausted following the most recent wave of infection. The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital & critical care remains high & in the case of critical care, at levels greater than peak of the 2nd wave."
"The high starting point of 600 cases per day means that case numbers rise rapidly to over 2,000 per day within 4 weeks."
— Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - 29 March 2021.
gov.ie/en/collection/…
Read 21 tweets
29 Mar
Giving away money inflates property prices and harms communities. The "Rural Development Policy 2021-2025" has the potential to positively support town and rural development, or to do great harm.

Read it and take control.
gov.ie/en/publication…
"Allowing people to live and work in their own communities" is the OPPOSITE of (financially) encouraging "remote workers to come and work in rural Ireland". Both are stated as goals.
rte.ie/news/ireland/2…
Which will prevail?

"support the retention of skilled people in rural areas as well as attracting mobile talent to rural areas."

OR

"funding local authorities to market their areas to attract remote workers."
thejournal.ie/rural-plan-539…
Read 4 tweets

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