29,000 cases of Covid-19 in #Ireland in the whole of July, and 24,000 in the first 15 days of August.
Cases are rising by 3.7%/day (29%/week) and heading to 10,000 cases per day around 25 September.
Cases are rising by 3.7%/day (29%/week) and heading to 10,000 cases per day around 25 September.
0.3% of the population are currently infectious, greater than in December 2020.
There is an 8% chance of at least 1 infected person in a group of 30, and a 50% chance in a group (e.g. school, office, shop) of 250 people.
There is an 8% chance of at least 1 infected person in a group of 30, and a 50% chance in a group (e.g. school, office, shop) of 250 people.
The reproduction number is 1.2, i.e. a moderately high growth rate.
(LSHTM: reproduction number 1.2, doubling time 15 days epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl… Harvard: reproduction number 1.18 metrics.covid19-analysis.org)
(LSHTM: reproduction number 1.2, doubling time 15 days epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/gl… Harvard: reproduction number 1.18 metrics.covid19-analysis.org)
About 2% of all cases are admitted to hospital. About 0.1%-0.4% of cases (i.e. 1-4 people in every thousand confirmed positive) die - far lower than in previous waves of Covid-19, but still a high burden of illness and death.
The IHME projects a further 1,400 deaths from Covid-19 between now and the end of October.
MOST of these deaths would be prevented (green line) by universal mask adherence, or other measures to limit transmission from cases.
covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=c…
MOST of these deaths would be prevented (green line) by universal mask adherence, or other measures to limit transmission from cases.
covid19.healthdata.org/ireland?view=c…
The current trajectory of rising cases, hospitalisation and death is close to the upper end of NPHET's "Central" projections.
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