Thread by @StuartDNeilson

The full text of the @CMOIreland's letter to the Health Minster, 20 January 2020:
gov.ie/en/collection/…

DEFINITIONS MATTER:

"56% of hospitalised cases were categorised as hospitalised for COVID-19, with the remaining 44% categorised as asymptomatic COVID-19 cases and potentially infectious."

(NOT "asymptomatic and non-infectious", as almost every news outlet claimed).

Few children, but big increase in oldest hospitalisation:

"As of 18th January 2022, age breakdown of hospitalised cases: 374 (34%) aged 80 and older, 335 (30%) aged 65-79, 176 (16%) aged 50-64, 196 (18%) aged 15-49, and 27 (2%) aged 0-14 years old."

24 December profile below:

Everybody, vaccinated and unvaccinated, take care:

"According to latest HSE data on hospitalisations & vaccinations, as of 18th January, 61% of hospitalised COVID-19 cases were fully vaccinated. Of these, 63% were recorded on COVAX as having received a booster/additional dose".

Delta wave continues, ~3% of infections (~310 today):

"As of 18 th January 2022, S gene target failure (SGTF) data (a proxy for Omicron) indicate that approximately 97% of new cases in Ireland are due to the Omicron variant (based on laboratory specimen date of 16th January)."

Multiply peak cases by 3 to 4:

"at peak there were approximately 2-3 additional infections for each infection detected or reported... all markers of incidence are decreasing. This profile of incidence fits with the model scenarios generated at the onset of the Omicron surge."

FEWER severe outcomes, not "MILDER":

"vaccine protection against severe disease is well maintained... This, along with Omicron being intrinsically somewhat less likely to progress to severe disease, means that serious adverse outcomes and mortality were much less than expected."

NOT over:

"infection is decreasing rapidly, but likely the rate of decrease will slow, and may be a period ahead where levels of infection increase again... population mobility and social contact will increase, creating additional opportunities for viral transmission".

Read page 6 with as much care as it was written:

"The NPHET is of the view that the current profile... allows for... a return to the strategy... of 25th August 2021.
NPHET stresses COVID-19 still poses a risk to public health, with a significant level of infection nationally".

"a cohort of the population that remain vulnerable to more severe infection. Important there is a phased approach easing measures while continuing to maintain a strong focus on personal protective behaviours based on individual & sectoral risk assessments over the coming period."

"The pandemic is NOT OVER & emergence of new variants with increased levels of transmissibility, immune escape / virulence remains a risk both nationally & globally, particularly in context of continued high levels of infection & variance in vaccine supply & uptake globally."

"as seen in other countries... with Omicron, the removal of social & economic restrictions WILL result in increased opportunities for virus to transmit & may lead to an increase in incidence, including in CHILDREN, many of whom have not yet had opportunity to be vaccinated."

READ PAGE SIX!

Back to August 2022 vigilance, but

"we cannot fully rule out the reintroduction of measures in the future and we must continue to ensure our response is agile and flexible, with an ability to pivot rapidly and respond to any emerging threat."

Full text of "Letter from CMO to Minister for Health re COVID-19 (Coronavirus) - 20 January 2022" (and previous advice, including 25 August 2021 letter) at gov.ie/en/collection/…