Thread by @jonworth

After Wednesday morning (when it looked like Johnson might be toppled) we reached Wednesday evening (Johnson had survived to live another day)

Let's look at how he survived, and try to apply a little logic to what happens next

A 🧵

Johnson's defence generally yesterday at #PMQs was two-fold

1️⃣ Spin the line of plausible deniability (he did not know parties were parties)

2️⃣ Wait until Sue Gray's report comes out next week before making any judgment

And that line will now hold until next week

So that leads us to the next question: how tough is Gray's report going to be? There are 3 options

1️⃣ It's a WHITEWASH - it confirms less than we know from the press already

2️⃣ It's a CONFIRMATION of what we know already

3️⃣ It digs up NEW INFORMATION we've not yet seen

The reason I think it's unlikely to be a WHITEWASH is that if it *is*, the leaks from Downing Street (and you know who) will start all over again.

This is especially so as Johnson has shown little loyalty to his staff, threatening to remove a load of them.

If staff told Gray what happened, and that does not end up in the report, then some of it will leak - and the story becomes Johnson organising the whitewash.

Johnson might stagger on further, but the argument then becomes Johnson covering things up - not a good look.

The most likely is that Gray's report is a CONFIRMATION of what we know - that Johnson did know what was going on, was there, perhaps even OKed that the parties should happen.

This leaves him with the issue he could not avoid in the Rigby interview - that he misled Parliament.

Basically his plausible deniability line is sunk.

Summary here:
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…

After weeks of denying parties happened, and then denying he knew they were parties, this outcome leaves him in a very perilous spot.

It's possible that Gray's investigation digs up some NEW INFORMATION that is even more incriminating - I cannot gauge how likely this is, but needless to say if this is the case it weakens Johnson's position further.

In other words: I think there is a high chance next week we have confirmed what Johnson could only bat away *this week* with the excuse "wait for the Gray report".

His holding line at this week's PMQs will not work next week.

So with that in mind, what are Tory MPs going to do?

Here timing comes into play.

A leadership election takes 6 weeks. Begin no confidence against Johnson next week and a new leader can be in place by late-March. Opportunity for a bounce by the local elections in May.

Wait longer to ditch Johnson - let it drift until the end of February for example - and then there's no real way to do it until *after* the elections in May.

Or doing it during those elections increases the chances of an awful result.

Plus this ditch-him-now or wait-a-few-months leaves the Tory Party as hostages to fortune.

Johnson's premiership has seldom been smooth. There will be scandals and panics in the interim - with Johnson there always are.

Leave Johnson in post and hit 25% in the polls by May?

So next week, as I see it, is the moment of maximum danger for the PM, and maximum opportunity for backbenchers looking to possibly oust him. And if not next week, the next chance could be much further into the future...

/ends

P.S. Don't just reply "Gray report will be a whitewash because government enquiries are whitewashes". If it *is* a whitewash, this story does not stop - because enough information is public already, and with the opportunity that more leaks if witnesses feel they weren't heard!

P.P.S. Thread written before William Wragg MP's speech about blackmail - that ups the pressure on Johnson but doesn't change the calculation (yet?)

However if Gray does have *the* email, then that makes CONFIRMATION more likely, and WHITEWASH less likely

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1484109819183255552