Jon Worth Profile picture
Jan 20 15 tweets 4 min read
After Wednesday morning (when it looked like Johnson might be toppled) we reached Wednesday evening (Johnson had survived to live another day)

Let's look at how he survived, and try to apply a little logic to what happens next

A 🧵
Johnson's defence generally yesterday at #PMQs was two-fold

1️⃣ Spin the line of plausible deniability (he did not know parties were parties)

2️⃣ Wait until Sue Gray's report comes out next week before making any judgment

And that line will now hold until next week
So that leads us to the next question: how tough is Gray's report going to be? There are 3 options

1️⃣ It's a WHITEWASH - it confirms less than we know from the press already

2️⃣ It's a CONFIRMATION of what we know already

3️⃣ It digs up NEW INFORMATION we've not yet seen
The reason I think it's unlikely to be a WHITEWASH is that if it *is*, the leaks from Downing Street (and you know who) will start all over again.

This is especially so as Johnson has shown little loyalty to his staff, threatening to remove a load of them.
If staff told Gray what happened, and that does not end up in the report, then some of it will leak - and the story becomes Johnson organising the whitewash.

Johnson might stagger on further, but the argument then becomes Johnson covering things up - not a good look.
The most likely is that Gray's report is a CONFIRMATION of what we know - that Johnson did know what was going on, was there, perhaps even OKed that the parties should happen.

This leaves him with the issue he could not avoid in the Rigby interview - that he misled Parliament.
Basically his plausible deniability line is sunk.

Summary here:
inews.co.uk/news/politics/…

After weeks of denying parties happened, and then denying he knew they were parties, this outcome leaves him in a very perilous spot.
It's possible that Gray's investigation digs up some NEW INFORMATION that is even more incriminating - I cannot gauge how likely this is, but needless to say if this is the case it weakens Johnson's position further.
In other words: I think there is a high chance next week we have confirmed what Johnson could only bat away *this week* with the excuse "wait for the Gray report".

His holding line at this week's PMQs will not work next week.
So with that in mind, what are Tory MPs going to do?

Here timing comes into play.

A leadership election takes 6 weeks. Begin no confidence against Johnson next week and a new leader can be in place by late-March. Opportunity for a bounce by the local elections in May.
Wait longer to ditch Johnson - let it drift until the end of February for example - and then there's no real way to do it until *after* the elections in May.

Or doing it during those elections increases the chances of an awful result.
Plus this ditch-him-now or wait-a-few-months leaves the Tory Party as hostages to fortune.

Johnson's premiership has seldom been smooth. There will be scandals and panics in the interim - with Johnson there always are.

Leave Johnson in post and hit 25% in the polls by May?
So next week, as I see it, is the moment of maximum danger for the PM, and maximum opportunity for backbenchers looking to possibly oust him. And if not next week, the next chance could be much further into the future...

/ends
P.S. Don't just reply "Gray report will be a whitewash because government enquiries are whitewashes". If it *is* a whitewash, this story does not stop - because enough information is public already, and with the opportunity that more leaks if witnesses feel they weren't heard!
P.P.S. Thread written before William Wragg MP's speech about blackmail - that ups the pressure on Johnson but doesn't change the calculation (yet?)

However if Gray does have *the* email, then that makes CONFIRMATION more likely, and WHITEWASH less likely

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jon Worth

Jon Worth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jonworth

Jan 21
I have a slightly strange question

Who are the best public intellectuals in the area of greening our transport systems in Europe?

Please tweet me your best names, and I will explain why I need them in the thread
The question comes from a demoralising conversation I had today with an EU official about the best means to decarbonise transport

The official in question is a clever person, but had no intellectual framework into which he could fit policy decisions
It strikes me that on energy transition there are some people like @MLiebreich who play this role. In the way we green our cities there are people like @BrentToderian or @_dmoser. At a national level @kkklawitter is doing excellent work, but with focus on Germany
Read 7 tweets
Jan 21
That pic of truck queues at Dover on Google...

Yes, there is a queue

But Satellite layer on regular Google Maps doesn't give a date

But Google Earth does - link will take you there 👇
earth.google.com/web/@51.109472…

Answer: it's from 30.3.2021 *or newer*, but not necessarily now Image
So you *can* say "You can see Brexit related truck queues from space"

You cannot say "The truck queues this week at Dover have started to show up on Google!" because the queue shown is probably some earlier one, not the one this week
Also I had a quick look for any particular disruption around 30.3.2021 and can find nothing except an accident (that would have not caused queues with this pattern). So when this queue happened: no idea. I don't think it can be worked out.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
Right

So version 2 of my Cross Border Rail schedule is now ready!

To recap - I assessed ex-MEP Michael Cramer's Missing Links jonworth.eu/revisiting-mic… and wanted to travel to as many borders as possible...

This is the full map!
My aim is to cross every EU and EFTA internal border where there are rail lines - in some places I want to investigate tracks or services missing, so I have to resort to cycling across the border instead!

And en route I will spend at least 2 hours in every political capital city
My aim is essentially political here - cross border rail generally works less well than rail within a single country in the EU. My trip aims to highlight that, tell the stories of what does and doesn't work, and highlight what can be done to improve matters!
Read 18 tweets
Jan 16
In February I've been invited to an event about night trains to/from Berlin...

... so today I started to wonder what runs, and what could run in future

Berlin Hbf pic source: flickr.com/photos/3093297…
My criteria for future routes: it'd have to be doable with a 200km/h locomotive hauled night train, and that locomotive would need ETCS

Something like this:
railjournal.com/locomotives/ra…
What night trains does Berlin have already?

NightJet 456 / 457
Berlin - Wroclaw 🇵🇱 - Wien 🇦🇹 (- Graz 🇦🇹 in summertime)

EN 40457 / 40476
Berlin - Wroclaw 🇵🇱 - Bratislava 🇸🇰 - Budapest 🇭🇺
Read 13 tweets
Jan 14
Just been deutsched in the ICE for... typing too loudly
And to those going “different people perceive sound differently”. Sure. I know.

But different people solve problems differently too. Train was max 10% full. Perhaps if you’re annoyed by something like typing, you move, instead of asking *me* to move (what the passenger did).
Am I weird in that I often move to other seats in trains? So as to be further from passengers I find annoying? (And I mean really annoying. Not just people typing.)
Read 5 tweets
Jan 9
Musing…

Could triggering Article 16 be the lever to trigger a Tory leadership election?

Bear with me…

It’s based on Truss’s Telegraph piece today
telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/0…
Truss can sort of talk to Sefcovic in the coming few weeks, make little or no progress, and confront Johnson with an ultimatum in February: the EU won’t budge (probably on ECJ issue) so we should trigger Article 16.
(Set aside whether this threat to trigger will work in practical terms towards the EU - that’s not what it’s for. It’s a kind of back me or sack me play by Truss. It’s not intended to actually *happen*)
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(