Thread by @andrewflood

896 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases is 89% last Thursday - this view of hospital cases during the entire pandemic shows we peaked at about all last year but also that this & last Autumn we had peaks that were unfortunately brief interludes /1

The 853 new hospital cases this week is 84% previous, this measure normally leads hospital occupancy so its a useful warning of a change in direction /2

New Hospital cases are 0.58% cases, that rate of decent has slowed & for now hard to know how much of that is testing being overwhelmed and how much the large increase in incidence in older populations in the new year /3

Latest HPSC weekly deaths bulletin is out, of last nights 52 additional deaths 15 had occurred in week, 1000 have now occurred since the start of August, the period in which vaccination was high & restrictions minimal
By months
Aug +1
Oct +3
Nov +4
Dec +12
Jan +32
/4

No underlying conditions +3 (since last weeks report)
In ICU +14

Ages
Under 25 No Change
25-34 NC
35-44 NC
45-54 +3
55-64 +8
65-74 +10
75-84 +17
85 plus +14
/5

Just under 1/3 of deaths were linked to C19 outbreaks in high risk settings

Setting of death
Hospital +32
Res Instit +12
Hospice +2
Home +3
Other +2
Unknown +1

Outbreak linked deaths
Nursing home +10
Hospital +3
Community hospital+2
Res Instit NC
Other NC
/6

I'm inclined to take the relative plateau / slow decrease in positive swabs & positivity over the last 3 to 4 days as more indicative of the actual direction of travel than the sharp descent when access to PCR testing was radically changed /7

A note of caution from the north where cases are increasing again, apparently driven by school reopening as under 20s proportion has more than doubled since
3879 cases is 130% previous week
26795 cases this weeks 112% previous
11,172/ 42% under 20
363 / 1.4% over 80
/8

ICU occupancy is not yet falling in the same way hospital occupancy has
90 ICU is 98% last Thursday
51 New ICU this week is 94% previous
New ICU in week is 0.03% cases, 5.5% new hospital cases
/9

This is the way the proportion of cases in under 20s varied from Nov 23 to now - can you spot the xmas holidays