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Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
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Jan 22 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
#Covid19Ireland ICU admissions are now very clearly post peak with
44 new ICU this week is 79% previous
New ICU is 0.03% cases, 5.15% new hospital cases
78 in ICU this morning is 88% last Saturday
I'm going to be posting less often with a focus on trends 'just in case'
/1
The post peak trend is also clear in hospital figures, everything points to an infection peak in the 1srt week of January
804 new hospital cases this week is 82% previous
New hospital cases are 0.6% cases
836 hospital is 89% last Saturday
/2
As with yesterday my biggest note of caution is the way cases (and deaths) are now rising again in the north of Ireland
3476 cases is 121% last Saturday
25268 cases this week is 118% previous
5 DoH deaths
32 DoH deaths this week is 110% previous
/3
But generally while I'm still collecting and processing the same data I used to in case (once again) things go wrong my posts on C19 will be less frequent & focused on trends unless something seems amiss /4

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More from @andrewflood

Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
Jan 21
NPHET recommending lifting of most restrictions is onbasis of overall strategy & our recent experience of Omicron post booster where hospitalisation rates are low & stays short. 892 hospital cases is 87% last Friday as we continue to descend from a peak in lower range of fears/1
It's always tempting to want for data 1st & I have concerns around age incidence but with 819 new hospital cases this week at 82% previous we are also seeing a consistent post peak decline in numbers being sent to hospital /2
When we last had 'its almost all over' messaging in late September the case hospitalisation rate was about 4 times the current rate & it then peaked at about 8 times the current rate. Today New hospital cases in week are 0.58% cases in week to 6 days earlier /3
Read 29 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
Jan 20
896 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases is 89% last Thursday - this view of hospital cases during the entire pandemic shows we peaked at about all last year but also that this & last Autumn we had peaks that were unfortunately brief interludes /1 Image
The 853 new hospital cases this week is 84% previous, this measure normally leads hospital occupancy so its a useful warning of a change in direction /2 Image
New Hospital cases are 0.58% cases, that rate of decent has slowed & for now hard to know how much of that is testing being overwhelmed and how much the large increase in incidence in older populations in the new year /3 Image
Read 10 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
Jan 9
Common Sunday increase in #Covid19Ireland hospital cases due to delayed discharges at weekend with 984 in Hospital 137% last Sunday - that rate has slowed & this day last year there were 1,285 in hospital. Discharges typically catch up Tuesdays so tomorrow may see over 1,000 /1
Today last year there were a similar number of new hospital cases (134) but we were in the middle of a rapid escalation of occupancy due to xmas intergenerational mixing - so far this year is different because of higher discharge rate, probably vaccine driven /2
Again due to vaccination the proportion of cases going to hospital is a tiny fraction of last year. New hospital cases are 0.83% cases in week to 6 days previous - just as well as there were 123k cases detected that week & probably as many again that could not access testing /3
Read 15 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
Jan 8
Actual #Covid19Ireland ICU occupancy added as a black dot onto NPHETs mid December scenarios for Omicron - if anything we have more cases than expected so ICU being this far below expected is remarkable & very good news indeed - see thread Image
This tweet is doing number so added context
1. Cases appear to me to be at the worst end is scenarios but we lack capacity to detect that many
2. Hospitalisations until 3 days ago we’re heading for upper 1/3 of worst outcomes
… /2
…My guess would be vaccination is proving to be much more effective against severe outcomes with Omicron than anticipated but I’m still nervous about a surge in older grps. A very good thing as those ICU demand scenarios were for far more ICUs than we have at the worst 1/2
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
Jan 8
Todays 917 #COVID19Ireland hospital cases are 140% last Saturday but 2nd day of a row of falling numbers. I don't want to prematurely call that a peak, it will rise tomorrow, but it is very good news indeed which I'll explain in detail /1 Image
Looking at last years hospital graph makes it clear we are on a very different trajectory. Today had 1153 in hospital and was the first 1/3 of several days of rapidly rising hospital cases as a consequence of xmas intergenerational mixing - we are not seeing that /2 Image
We have seen a period of rapidly rising new hospital cases but they are no longer doubling despite cases more than doubling in the week 6 days back, 1007 new hospital cases this week is 136% previous rather than 200%+ /3 Image
Read 19 tweets
Andrew Flood 👨🏻‍💻📝🕺 Profile picture
Jan 7
936 #Covid19Ireland hospital cases today Jan7 is 137% last Friday but for the 1st time fewer than this day last year which had 1022. There were more admissions 161 this year V 131 last year but shorter lengths of stay mean numbers in hospital are now less with 3 day plateau/1 Image
972 new hospital cases this week is 141% previous but after a long period of every day increase this to has plateaued over last 3 days - too early to call a trend but certainly welcome in comparison with the alternative which had us heading for 1700 is hospital by Thursday /2 Image
Underlying this is a fall in the proportion of cases going to hospital, New hospital cases in week are 0.91% cases, 1st time that's fallen under 1% and for periods in recent months it was four times that rate (we'd have 4,000 in hospital now at that mid October rate) /3 Image
Read 13 tweets

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