Thread by @MoriartyLab

I think it's too late to do a Zoom for most. Here are key pieces of information journalists may need for today's Ontario news conference.

Reasons why Ontario is least prepared Canadian jurisdiction to re-open quickly:

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https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1484164300445036545

1. The people most likely to die and be hospitalized are people 70+. Ontario has the lowest vaccination rates in this age group of any Canadian province/territory except Nunavut and New Brunswick. Source: @GovCanHealth vax update of Jan 14/22

@GovCanHealth 2. Boosters have saved the lives of about 5,000 Ontario residents so far, but ON still has a long way to go with boosters.

ON currently has a smaller % of people 70+ boosted than any Canadian jurisdiction except Atlantic provinces and Nunavut. Sources: same as #1, @PeterCBC

@GovCanHealth @PeterCBC 3. About 15% of Ontario residents have probably been infected since November 15/21. Everything we're seeing is with a minority of the population infected. If everyone is exposed infected, Ontario will likely see 21,000-25,000 deaths, about 10,000-13,000 of which will be reported.

@GovCanHealth @PeterCBC 4. About 8,000 of ON's future deaths will be among unvaccinated people, most of them 50 and older. For many people 70+ vaccine outreach is badly needed, but it takes time, because it requires one on one conversations and people being able to reach their care providers.

@GovCanHealth @PeterCBC 5. Paxlovid has been approved in Canada, but is in short supply. If we slow things down until we have it in place, Ontario may be able to prevent 27,000-38,000 hospitalizations, 10,000-15,000 ICU admissions and 6,000-9,000 deaths.

@GovCanHealth @PeterCBC 6. Paxlovid needs to be started within the first 5 days of symptom onset. For it to work, testing must be easily accessible for the general population and FAST, not just for symptomatic people in high priority groups.

@GovCanHealth @PeterCBC Unless we're testing in the general population with turnaround times of 48 hours or less, Paxlovid won't help a lot. Before relaxing measures testing must be available to all symptomatic people with turnaround times of under 48 hours. This was a key metric in all previous waves.

Economic costs: Based on @CIHI_ICIS reporting of average Canadian COVID hospitalization cost/person, divided by 2 (since hospitalization is 50% shorter for Omicron), the estimated cost of FUTURE Omicron hospitalizations in ON is $2-3 billion.

@CIHI_ICIS Since Nov 15, Omicron hospitalization costs in Ontario have probably been about $300 million. Fiscal responsibility requires us to slow this down. Getting N95 masks to everyone, supporting industries hardest hit by restrictions is a small fraction of future hospitalization costs.

@CIHI_ICIS I can add more, but if any journalist needs sources for any of this, please email immediately. All sources are nationally and provincially reported data from @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @COVIDSciOntario

FYI, about Canada (and Ontario's) restricted testing policy. We're only medium or high income country in the world currently restricting testing. We are WAY out in uncharted territory.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1482419490906386433?s=20

P.S. I don't give a rat's ass if you cite me or not--sources are all publicly available. Just ask the questions. I'll provide endless background interviews/group Zooms to help point journalists to where to find data, which are summarized publicly here: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

FYI for those dubious about why you should carefully consider what I'm saying. I led the Royal Society of Canada's report on mortality in Canada during COVID. I'm one of most expert people in the country on this topic. I don't yell unless I have to. I've been yelling since Dec 15

Finally, for those looking at that complex spreadsheet linked above, here are the takehome columns:

Columns T-V expected future hospitalizations, ICU admissions, deaths

Column AB: future deaths that will be reported

Column AF: expected influenza deaths/year, for comparison