Here are Canada's expected, expected reported and actual reported deaths to Jan 20.
Deaths we're seeing now are from period starting the week of Dec 20, when it was hard to access PCR testing.
The estimates of expected deaths are likely under-estimates from here on in.
Deaths we're seeing now are from period starting the week of Dec 20, when it was hard to access PCR testing.
The estimates of expected deaths are likely under-estimates from here on in.
Both QC and ON, which have driven most deaths reported until recently are also showing an upswing now that suggests estimated infection numbers from @IHME_UW and ICL that I use to estimate expected deaths are likely too low. Hopefully there will be new estimates from them today.
@IHME_UW Certainly, I don't think QC deaths are about to level off, as the model suggests, and it would be surprising if ON deaths increased in a linear, not an exponential fashion.
We're definitely about to move into the upper confidence limit range for Canada's deaths for next 2 wks.
We're definitely about to move into the upper confidence limit range for Canada's deaths for next 2 wks.
@IHME_UW It's also important to remember that most infections up to Dec 20 were in younger age groups, and that those most at risk started being infected more from Dec 20 onward.
We haven't even hit the period yet of widespread LTC outbreaks in QC and ON....
We haven't even hit the period yet of widespread LTC outbreaks in QC and ON....
@IHME_UW Methods, sources, explainers etc are in thread pinned to my profile.
https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1482783048617836546?s=20
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