Thread by @therealarod1984

1/13 - Texas Hospitalization analysis by TSA

THREAD:

Couple of tweets here to break down the regions. Seeing growth rapidly decline, & with positivity rate already peaking per below, we likely don't see renewed growth. We are now watching for hospitalizations to nose over

1/n

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1481794753578651649

First off we look at some indicators as to where things are headed

1) CDC chart, while recent days incomplete, growth is slowing & possible 1/8 peak
2) Admits 14DMA (longer term metric) has mostly nosed over
3) Admits 7DMA at 30% & falling
4) Hospital census growth falling

2/n

Now some regionals

SE TX Hospital Census growth is declining rapidly

* Houston, Galveston both are in steep declines. Again these are rate of growth charts, not census
* Southern Hill Country (San Antonio) & College Station are showing similar trends. Growth winding down

3/n

Now same area's census charts.

* You see how HOU growth declining to 30% in the 7DMA looks in the Census charting, its trying to nose over
* DFW & AUS growth decline is behind SE TX but per 3/n its started there too
* Days away from seeing these regions top out & nose over

4/n

The rest of the state's rate of growth charts:

* Panhandle & Far West TX have had 2 smaller waves back to back. One was their normal "tied to New Mexico's seasonality" wave, & then a minor Omicron wave.
* The wave has moved through South Texas now. Declines 1-2 weeks away

5/n

As mentioned yesterday, hospitalizations are going to peak really fast. The wave will look nothing like 2020 Winter, which was long and drawn out. 2021 Winter may not even reach the same highs on any of the metrics, especially the severe ones. Despite 500%+ more cases.

6/end