1/13 - Texas Hospitalization analysis by TSA

THREAD:

Couple of tweets here to break down the regions. Seeing growth rapidly decline, & with positivity rate already peaking per below, we likely don't see renewed growth. We are now watching for hospitalizations to nose over

1/n
First off we look at some indicators as to where things are headed

1) CDC chart, while recent days incomplete, growth is slowing & possible 1/8 peak
2) Admits 14DMA (longer term metric) has mostly nosed over
3) Admits 7DMA at 30% & falling
4) Hospital census growth falling

2/n
Now some regionals

SE TX Hospital Census growth is declining rapidly

* Houston, Galveston both are in steep declines. Again these are rate of growth charts, not census
* Southern Hill Country (San Antonio) & College Station are showing similar trends. Growth winding down

3/n
Now same area's census charts.

* You see how HOU growth declining to 30% in the 7DMA looks in the Census charting, its trying to nose over
* DFW & AUS growth decline is behind SE TX but per 3/n its started there too
* Days away from seeing these regions top out & nose over

4/n
The rest of the state's rate of growth charts:

* Panhandle & Far West TX have had 2 smaller waves back to back. One was their normal "tied to New Mexico's seasonality" wave, & then a minor Omicron wave.
* The wave has moved through South Texas now. Declines 1-2 weeks away

5/n
As mentioned yesterday, hospitalizations are going to peak really fast. The wave will look nothing like 2020 Winter, which was long and drawn out. 2021 Winter may not even reach the same highs on any of the metrics, especially the severe ones. Despite 500%+ more cases.

6/end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @therealarod1984

14 Jan
1/14 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Positivity rate still hovering @ 32%
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* All the Hospitalization metrics continue cooling off, and cooling off very rapidly
1/n
1/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/4:
* Pos rate 32.02%, where its basically going to top out in the 32s. We will see on Monday if we can discern a hard peak.
* DSHS is receiving 1.3 million tests a week. #nuts

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/14 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 48K
* Positive tests & rate in the next few days will determine if we go much beyond 48K
* % of positive test conversion to cases is up to 56% as of 1/4 & rising fast, also indicating peak is soon
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
1/13 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* 1/8 Positivity rate peak holds for 2nd straight day
* New Testing record
* Case 7DMA creeps up to new record
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Houston & SE Texas hospitalizations have already nosed over

1/n
1/13 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/3:
* Pos rate 31.79% but current 1/8 peak is 32.60%
* Positives @ 55K/day
* Testing @ 175K/day - new C19 record
* Pos rate peak could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
.
1/13 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 47K, new C19 record
* Rate of growth still declining
* The % of positive test conversion to cases is indicative of position in the wave. As of 1/3, that % is up to 49%, and shooting upwards.
,
3/n
Read 6 tweets
12 Jan
1/12 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* It is possible positivity rate has already peaked
* new 1-day record for reported cases
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Severe hospitalization still not at 2020 Winter pace yet, while cases are 5X 2020

1/n
1/12 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/2:
* Pos rate 31.52% but really flattening
* Positives @ 53K/day
* Testing @ 169K/day
* Its early but pos rate has formed a peak on 1/8. Could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/12 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 44K, after 60K+ day
* Rate of growth⬇️
* The % of positive test conversion to cases is indicative of position in the wave. As of 1/2, that % is starting a steep climb. Helps confirm pos rate peak
,
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
1/8 Texas C19 Update: Mid-Rise?

THREAD:

* Indications are that we are mid-way+ through the rise of this wave
* Positivity Rate growth is decreasing
* Crazy high Cases have topped out
* Hospital Admits are really starting a taper
* ICU and Vents still not keeping pace

1/n
1/8 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/29,
* Pos rate 28.75% on its way to ~31%
* Positives at 42K/day on way to 50K. #Crazy
* Testing @ 148K/day on way to 160K
* Pos% rate will crest in the low 30s in coming days

2/n
.
1/8 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Topping out at 43K 7DMA & finally a decline, after 8 days of huge numbers
* 225% higher than previous C19 record & 500% higher than this point in 2020 Winter wave
* Will likely sit @ 40K range for a few days

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
1/6 Texas C19 Update: Still going

THREAD:

* Maybe seeing a peak form for combined positivity rate
* Day 6 of huge case numbers, a record 7DMA by 2X
* General Hospitalizations increasing but growth rate has crested
* ICU & Vents behind Winter 2020 Wave pace

1/n
1/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/27,
* Pos rate 23.91% on its way to ~31%
* Testing @ 130K/day on way to 155K
* Record positive tests
* Looking at more recent days, pos rate flattens @ 31%, will watch for a crest

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/6 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Nearing 40K 7DMA, after 6th straight day of massive numbers
* More than twice the previous record set during Winter 2020
* After tomorrow, growth rate will plateau, but cases have gone wild

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
3 Jan
1/3 Texas C19 Update: Everyone is getting it

THREAD:

* Shocking number of cases reported the past 3 days, shattering Covid case records
* Severe cases rising but nothing like cases
* Should be a steep but short wave
* Vaccine mandates LOL. Yeah OK.

1/n
1/3 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/24, in a steep wave:
* Pos rate @ 18.94%, more growth to come
* Testing ~ 125K day
* Conversion of positives indicates still early in wave on 12/24, but that may change soon...

2/n
.
1/3 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Records numbers of cases reported, starting to catch up from all the unreported positive tests
* Brand new records for daily reported and 7DMA. With 72% of the eligible pop and 77% of adults vaxxed

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(