Thread by @therealarod1984

1/13 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* 1/8 Positivity rate peak holds for 2nd straight day
* New Testing record
* Case 7DMA creeps up to new record
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Houston & SE Texas hospitalizations have already nosed over

1/n

https://twitter.com/therealarod1984/status/1481387817716563971

1/13 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/3:
* Pos rate 31.79% but current 1/8 peak is 32.60%
* Positives @ 55K/day
* Testing @ 175K/day - new C19 record
* Pos rate peak could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
.

1/13 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 47K, new C19 record
* Rate of growth still declining
* The % of positive test conversion to cases is indicative of position in the wave. As of 1/3, that % is up to 49%, and shooting upwards.
,
3/n

1/13 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* % of beds tagged as Covid declines to 18.57%
* Census up 82 beds from yesterday. Last Thurs increase was 611
* Admits 7DMA - 1896. 7DMA growth rate down to 30%
* Hosp growth rate down to 46%
* Houston admits (SETRAC & DSHS) have nosed over

4/n

1/13 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU finally catches 2020 pace but rate of growth already weakening
* Vents likely still 4 days away
* Winter 2020 still has 4-5 weeks of growth left in it, it likely catches back up to Winter 2021 hosps & passes it
* This wave= short/steep

5/n
.

1/13 Conclusion

* Positivity Rate peaking is the beginning of the end for this wave
* But if testing continues to increase, it will be a while before positives/cases peak
* Hospitalizations are losing steam really quick. They will peak way before cases do.

6/end