1/13 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* 1/8 Positivity rate peak holds for 2nd straight day
* New Testing record
* Case 7DMA creeps up to new record
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Houston & SE Texas hospitalizations have already nosed over

1/n
1/13 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/3:
* Pos rate 31.79% but current 1/8 peak is 32.60%
* Positives @ 55K/day
* Testing @ 175K/day - new C19 record
* Pos rate peak could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
.
1/13 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 47K, new C19 record
* Rate of growth still declining
* The % of positive test conversion to cases is indicative of position in the wave. As of 1/3, that % is up to 49%, and shooting upwards.
,
3/n
1/13 Hospitalizations - Part 1

* % of beds tagged as Covid declines to 18.57%
* Census up 82 beds from yesterday. Last Thurs increase was 611
* Admits 7DMA - 1896. 7DMA growth rate down to 30%
* Hosp growth rate down to 46%
* Houston admits (SETRAC & DSHS) have nosed over

4/n
1/13 Hospitalizations - Part 2

* ICU finally catches 2020 pace but rate of growth already weakening
* Vents likely still 4 days away
* Winter 2020 still has 4-5 weeks of growth left in it, it likely catches back up to Winter 2021 hosps & passes it
* This wave= short/steep

5/n
.
1/13 Conclusion

* Positivity Rate peaking is the beginning of the end for this wave
* But if testing continues to increase, it will be a while before positives/cases peak
* Hospitalizations are losing steam really quick. They will peak way before cases do.

6/end

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More from @therealarod1984

14 Jan
1/14 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* Positivity rate still hovering @ 32%
* Testing and cases continue slow creep up, setting a new C19 record every time
* All the Hospitalization metrics continue cooling off, and cooling off very rapidly
1/n
1/14 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/4:
* Pos rate 32.02%, where its basically going to top out in the 32s. We will see on Monday if we can discern a hard peak.
* DSHS is receiving 1.3 million tests a week. #nuts

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/14 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 48K
* Positive tests & rate in the next few days will determine if we go much beyond 48K
* % of positive test conversion to cases is up to 56% as of 1/4 & rising fast, also indicating peak is soon
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
1/13 - Texas Hospitalization analysis by TSA

THREAD:

Couple of tweets here to break down the regions. Seeing growth rapidly decline, & with positivity rate already peaking per below, we likely don't see renewed growth. We are now watching for hospitalizations to nose over

1/n
First off we look at some indicators as to where things are headed

1) CDC chart, while recent days incomplete, growth is slowing & possible 1/8 peak
2) Admits 14DMA (longer term metric) has mostly nosed over
3) Admits 7DMA at 30% & falling
4) Hospital census growth falling

2/n ImageImageImageImage
Now some regionals

SE TX Hospital Census growth is declining rapidly

* Houston, Galveston both are in steep declines. Again these are rate of growth charts, not census
* Southern Hill Country (San Antonio) & College Station are showing similar trends. Growth winding down

3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
12 Jan
1/12 Texas C19 Update:

THREAD:

* It is possible positivity rate has already peaked
* new 1-day record for reported cases
* Various Hospital metrics rate of growth continues strong decline
* Severe hospitalization still not at 2020 Winter pace yet, while cases are 5X 2020

1/n
1/12 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/2:
* Pos rate 31.52% but really flattening
* Positives @ 53K/day
* Testing @ 169K/day
* Its early but pos rate has formed a peak on 1/8. Could change, but 1st clear peak so far

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/12 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Case 7DMA~ 44K, after 60K+ day
* Rate of growth⬇️
* The % of positive test conversion to cases is indicative of position in the wave. As of 1/2, that % is starting a steep climb. Helps confirm pos rate peak
,
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
8 Jan
1/8 Texas C19 Update: Mid-Rise?

THREAD:

* Indications are that we are mid-way+ through the rise of this wave
* Positivity Rate growth is decreasing
* Crazy high Cases have topped out
* Hospital Admits are really starting a taper
* ICU and Vents still not keeping pace

1/n
1/8 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/29,
* Pos rate 28.75% on its way to ~31%
* Positives at 42K/day on way to 50K. #Crazy
* Testing @ 148K/day on way to 160K
* Pos% rate will crest in the low 30s in coming days

2/n
.
1/8 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Topping out at 43K 7DMA & finally a decline, after 8 days of huge numbers
* 225% higher than previous C19 record & 500% higher than this point in 2020 Winter wave
* Will likely sit @ 40K range for a few days

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
6 Jan
1/6 Texas C19 Update: Still going

THREAD:

* Maybe seeing a peak form for combined positivity rate
* Day 6 of huge case numbers, a record 7DMA by 2X
* General Hospitalizations increasing but growth rate has crested
* ICU & Vents behind Winter 2020 Wave pace

1/n
1/6 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/27,
* Pos rate 23.91% on its way to ~31%
* Testing @ 130K/day on way to 155K
* Record positive tests
* Looking at more recent days, pos rate flattens @ 31%, will watch for a crest

2/n
. ImageImageImageImage
1/6 - Cases

* Cases batched by date received by the county
* Nearing 40K 7DMA, after 6th straight day of massive numbers
* More than twice the previous record set during Winter 2020
* After tomorrow, growth rate will plateau, but cases have gone wild

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
3 Jan
1/3 Texas C19 Update: Everyone is getting it

THREAD:

* Shocking number of cases reported the past 3 days, shattering Covid case records
* Severe cases rising but nothing like cases
* Should be a steep but short wave
* Vaccine mandates LOL. Yeah OK.

1/n
1/3 Testing

Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 12/24, in a steep wave:
* Pos rate @ 18.94%, more growth to come
* Testing ~ 125K day
* Conversion of positives indicates still early in wave on 12/24, but that may change soon...

2/n
.
1/3 - Cases

* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Records numbers of cases reported, starting to catch up from all the unreported positive tests
* Brand new records for daily reported and 7DMA. With 72% of the eligible pop and 77% of adults vaxxed

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets

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