Economists who don't pay attention to details of production are not economists. Production of cars, oil and meat was disrupted because they are "just-in-time" and bottlenecks in production or transport (like shipping/ports/trucks) hurt.
Thread
2/ Started the thread here 2 years ago, as it became clear that coronavirus would shock the world economy. The shock of E Asia shutting down was immediate to markets & commodities and our "just-in-time" fossil-fueled systems #CoronavirusImposesCarbonTax
3/ The idea of #CoronavirusImposesCarbonTax thread was to understand structure by exploring how a shock propagates across the world economy. Economists find out in 2021 that bottlenecks caused inflation in sectors of OIL, CARS and MEAT.
8/ A broad anti-materialist shift in economics took place a few decades ago. Solow taught them to be satisfied with "pinging sonar off the substance of the world" (Though some subfields like Industrial organization and Trade kept an eye on production.)
9/ Big chunk of Inflation is Transport bottlenecks in trucks and ports & warehouses that increased costs of distributing goods. But why worse in US than Europe?
Shit jobs/pay for Truckers in deregulated industry ht @ddayenprospect.org/economy/great-…
10/ 'Modern supply chains are "lean." Excess is inefficient, and costly. But despite calls to "resiliency," these lean supply chains offer little margin for when things go wrong. As Peter Goodman and Niraj Chokshi put it, "Just In Time is running late."'
11/ Biggest factors in rising inflation: Oil, used cars trucks, energy, and gas piped in by utilities, then meat, poultry...
US Govt planning went into 2000s Shale & Corn-Ethanol boom.
Why not for Green Electricity, Public transit etc asks @KateAronoff nymag.com/intelligencer/…
"Behind all of these choices was Wall Street, insisting on more profit maximization through deregulation, mergers, offshoring,and hyperefficiency" ht @ddayen prospect.org/economy/how-we…
13/ "We take a journey through the supply chain, from offshored production facilities, to mega-container ships, to ports bursting at the seams, to deregulated rail and trucking services, to warehouse way stations, to retail and commodity profiteers."
14/ Why inflation? Decades of disinvestment & deregulation of American ports. No US port appears in even top 50 of World Banks top 500. While Europe's port authorities-trucking-shipping all share data for efficiency, US is disorganized.
15/ Why inflation? A Climate Dragon breathing fire is stalking the realm.
"A single woodland province furnishes timber for most American homes; a single highland country grows nearly half of the world’s magic beans" ht @yayitsrob theatlantic.com/science/archiv…
16/ Why Inflation? Soaring Transportation costs. "Wall Street demanded that railroads reduce capacity and cut labor for decades, leaving them totally unprepared for increased demand"
How America’s Supply Chains Got Railroaded prospect.org/economy/how-am…
17/ "Not only did Americans get the bad jobs,the left-behind regions,& the soaring stratification between rich and poor—when the supply chain broke down,they lost the low prices,the only compensation for all these other horrors"
Spl. Issue : Why Inflation? prospect.org/supply-chain
18/ Big chunk of Inflation is Transport bottlenecks in trucks and ports & warehouses. Deregulation of trucking turned it into shit pay. Average income of US port truck drivers, after expenses, is $28,000. It used to be triple that before Carter!
19/ Why Inflation? Deep dive into economics of warehouses by @gurleygg. Toyota adopting W. Edwards Deming inventory management (don’t waste money on storing inventory) to Walmart to Amazon.
MMT on managing inflation with multiple tools
"Whether it's businesses raising profit margins or passing on costs...there are a range of sources of inflation that aren’t caused by the general state of demand & aren’t best regulated by aggr demand policies" ft.com/content/539618…
Balanced critique of Kelton's book "The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the People's Economy" ht @JWMason1 prospect.org/culture/books/…
Pickens hated Dole & Agribusiness love of Corn ethanol. Told Dole, its a fuel that requires more energy (and oil+subsidies) to produce than it delivers at the pump.
2/Witnessing the disaster in Indonesia in 2015 was devastating. Most ppl outside Midwest don't know that 2007 RFS mandate replaced 10% of each gallon of gas sold in the US with corn ethanol. It was pushed by all major envtl group then. Horrifying impact.
3/ Corn: US's leakiest oil pipeline. Hated by Oil companies, but such is power of Agribusiness.
Fossil fuel goes into tractors & fertilizers & comes out as corn-ethanol, that is put back into....cars, tractors. 10% of every gallon of gas in the US is corn ethanol. Thank Dole.
US defense technocrats will now include Climate in prioritizing threats; in strategies for countering threats; in planning missions of the armed forces; in what weapons to develop and five-year plan for investments that support strategy #GeopoliticsOfGHGs media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
gotta love the big nerd brain energy in Pentagon planners.
Guys guys this climate change thing that our scientists are telling us about for 50 years? What if, like, its too hot for planes to take off or, get this, wildfire smoke makes bombing harder? media.defense.gov/2021/Oct/21/20…
Worlds largest oil and gas producers? ✅✅
Military budgets many times larger than green investment? ✅✅
Grains in drought?✅✅
Massive forests going up in smoke? ✅✅
Massive chutzpah to create carbon offsets with said forests? ✅✅ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/“You wouldn’t always know it, but it went up every year I was president. That whole, suddenly America’s like the biggest oil producer & the biggest gas — that was me, people"-@BarackObama
Energy Independence/Dominance is a hell of a drug in both US (green line) & Russia (blue)
3/ Biden's infrastructure bill is now ~$2 Trillion over 10 years. Sounds like a lot right? $200 billion each year. But just about $30B each year is for Climate
US spends ~$750B p.a on the military,25 TIMES more than all climate programs #GeopoliticsOfGHGs
Useful to zoom out. What makes climate action hard in the US?
1 It became the worlds LARGEST producer of Oil & Gas over last decade. 2. The Oil & Gas industry employs 10 million people across a dozen states that are overrepresented in Senate
ht @HelenHet20newstatesman.com/world/americas…