The entire market is oversold across all major timeframes. That doesn’t mean we will do a V shape recovery
At best we will get 23.6 / 38.2 FIB bounce for some of the major coins and potential 61.8 / 78.6 for trending coins from past few weeks
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How to spot reversals and how to profit in current market conditions ?
There are two types of coins with two different behaviors
Coins that were trending up and pumping hard before this entire dump saga began & coins that were going sideways / down trending
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Coins that were sideways / down trending even before this dump started will be laggards when we get relief rally
Coins that were trending up / breaking new highs / strong momentum coins / good hype / big community will recover 50-150% very quickly on relief rallies
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Let’s say a typical down trending coin will do 23.6 / 38.2 coins vs those up trending coins from past few weeks may do bigger bounces
First few attempts may result in smaller bounces and rejection to retest lows as well as we make newer lows
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The short term reversal clue: when we break previous 60 hours highest high & close above with at least 5/10 hourly candles. This is when the local dips will be juicy to buy for up trending coins as they may offer bigger bounce
Down trending low volume shitcoins won’t go far
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Be prepared for rejection of any reversal attempts and retest of lows and even newer lows and further sell off unless we see strength in H1 against previous 60 hours High
The entire market is oversold across all timeframes so some relief rally is expected
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#bitcoin has multiple support around 33900 area so if that holds, we will get some bounce. Will that hold and will we get bigger bounce ? That depend on breaking those highs that I was talking earlier. For now 40500 is resistance for $btc unless we close above that today
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Coins that were up trending earlier and breaking new highs include $LUNA $NEAR $ROSE $MANA $SAND $LRC $DUSK $SYS $FTM $ONE $ATOM $AVAX
Now find the one that dumped the most making these and the one with best volume and good previous trend
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Stay with strong volume, strong previous trending coins and focus on anything that moves and breaks 60 hours high with strong momentum & volume
Don’t just get married to $ETH or $BTC to make quick bucks
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Last but not the least, be prepared to sell and book profits as most of these reversal attempts will fail in few days and most of the coins will retest / break lows again
Be calm and composed and make the most of the current situation
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If you’re stuck in shitcoins that aren’t moving, churn your portfolio. Read my 2018 article here to understand how you can recover even if your portfolio is down -80% or more
If you like it pls share it to help others. And save such threads for reference
TA works 90% of the times, FA works many times but when FA works, TA takes a backseat
Don’t blindly use TA during times of major economic events & catalysts from other co-related markets
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It’s wise not to use TA during the black swan events or during uncertain emotional events
Wait for that event to pass & TA will eventually takeover price action
Global stocks are dumping hard with Nasdaq $NQ leading the pack. For now $BTC is closely correlated with #Nasdaq
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#Bitcoin gave up all the gains and is back below original breakout levels. I won’t apply TA for the day until I see Nasdaq finishing a floor. The dump is brutal and hard.
Next support for NASDAQ is 5% away from current levels. Let’s wait and see if that holds
Do yourself a favor and add OBV indicator on your charts. Now add 20 & 200 MA on top of OBV indicator
Add an indicator on top of an indicator. Now you can spot price vs OBV divergences easily
Read this thread for more…..
Now watch H1 for short term reversals and H4 & Daily for mid term reversals
Works best after huge pumps and dumps to find reversal clues
After a big dump, If OBV breaks above 20/200 MA & if 20 MA turns into support, expect local reversal
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If price is below 20/200 & OBV is above 20/200 & holding 20 as support that’s your incoming breakout clue!
What that means is, OBV broke the high but price is still struggling. Price May still dump all the way to retest the low & even two little lower to clean stops but
BTC indecisive = Be selective & be prepared to jump either ways on short notice
This is relevant if #Bitcoin Dominance is high & rising up
Thread / 2
If #Bitcoin dominance is diminishing & on its way down, we can play:
$BTC Up-Trend = Up-Trending ALTs with stronger trends than BTC can offer higher profits in USD terms. You get the benefit from BTC up trend + ALTs uptrend
#USD paired ALTs are pumping, mostly thx to $BTC pump against #USD
$BTC paired ALTs continued to struggle but are showing bottoming process for last few days
Here is how to play ALTs:
Check the Thread /2
If you are into $BTC you may flip your #BTC position for ALTs for next few days if #Bitcoin struggles against key resistance & can’t post higher highs in next few days
Which ALTs to choose ?
2 setups
Trend Continuation
Trend Reversal
I prefer 1st one, let’s discuss both /3
Trend Continuation is relevant for those ALTs which are still trending up against $BTC
There aren’t many, but handful of them like #LTC#BNB are taking a breather against $BTC But May find a support & eventually pump again