The likelihood of a Russian gas cutoff to Europe seems low, but would be catastrophic if it happened. Europe would have to import much more LNG at exorbitant prices, industries would shut down due to unaffordable energy bills, and the European economy would take a massive hit.
https://twitter.com/ira_joseph/status/1484928016023273472
Options for Europe to import more gas are limited, w other pipeline suppliers close to capacity. There is not enough LNG to accommodate the loss of Russian gas supplies into Europe, & Europe would need to pay price needed to pull all the flexible supplies it could away from Asia
To the extent you can substitute other fuels (eg coal, oil) for gas, much of that is already being done. Europe would likely face growing calls internally to ramp up its own gas production (e.g., Groningen), and to reverse or cancel planned nuclear closures.
Energy prices have already shown they react sharply to even small changes in balances. If prices soared to $60/mmbtu (compared to $4 in US) on a cold day when Russian deliveries were a bit weak, can you imagine where they’d be if we lose all Russian gas exports? $100+/mmbtu.
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