If you listen to what the visiting German Admiral Schonbach says in India here - it is rough & off the cuff - it is basically the TL:DR/‘quiet part out loud’ of most serious Western analysts re Russia & China & the grave danger of #DragonBear for Eurasia
Noticing media commentary upset that the Admiral says he is a 'radical Roman Catholic' - I suspect as English is his second language, he meant 'rooted' (in German same thing) as he was discussing Putin as a non believer. If this upsets you, call Captain von Trapp to the bridge
To my knowledge, Putin has said his mother was religious and that he was baptised Orthodox. On any view, whatever, the Russians in Syria did manage to do more to protect the rights of Christian minorities than the Americans - arming "moderate Al Qaeda" etc - ever did, frankly.
In any case, the fundamental problem in all former Soviet territories = large numbers of ethnic Russians left outside Russia. In the 1990s, paying Russia to take back its Russians was always wise. The liberal multi-cultural nonsense of the time eschewed this. So here we are....
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American & European liberalism (right & left variants) - notwithstanding 20 years of disastrous inability to bring rainbow flags to the Pashtu etc - have now determined that ex Soviet klepto states (that few of them could find on a map) are the next frontier for 'freedom'....
There is a realistic case for involving yourself in various parts of the world - food, energy, balance of power, etc - but there is no really strong moral case, as of now. Taiwan would possiblt be an exception but Taiwan also matters & hard to see Ukraine similarly right now.
Hopefully in his now retirement, Admiral Schonbach writes more ... it will be unpopular in Europe but will find a very receptive audience "east of Suez" as the British would say.
Ongoing thread here re Russia, Ukraine, prospects for War & its consequences, and a certain #Realpolitik about the 'Russian way of war' .... noting you can find my #DragonBear comments elsewhere.
Firstly, good maps here from the NYT of current Russian military dispositions ivo Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia, etal. Russia recovering the Crimea in 2014 enormously useful in all directions (as well as bases for logistics & Intelligence collection) nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Secondly, I did a whole thread here before Christmas on how the Russians approach war and statecraft (TL:DR there is a long historical method and very little that is surprising to anyone who reads & has basic common sense) ⬇️
Not one to reflexively defend Joe Biden but he is right to try and ratchet down tensions with the Russians over Ukraine. It is January, the Russians are in a (very) good position to drive (all) over Ukraine & few local NATO members want a war over it. Some refreshing realism.
Am no Biden apologist BUT I am intrigued by the idea that the US esp would want to be poking the Russian Bear right now (in the Russian winter) over Ukraine when *the Germans* were seemingly denying airspace to British ammunitioning and support flights
The Ukrainian problem is only going to be solved by diplomacy and those who would never renounce the Monroe Doctrine for the US also realising that the Russians (who were a mature empire when America was rebellious colonials) claim a sphere of influence of their own
As I enjoy twitter for everything that is not Law - I will (rugby) punt or flick pass you to the very good coverage of the Djokovic matter by @jeremy_gans & Jeremy seems to be undertaking the Sissyphean task of understanding the Djokovic and Govt cases.
I may live tweet some of what happens tomorrow morning esp if Djokovic's hearing involves a Federal Court "full court" of 3 judges sitting on a Sunday morning .... this should be 'interesting'
The original sinner in all of this is Tennis Australia which seems to have told everyone - players, State of Victoria, Australian Govt- what they each wanted to hear in order to get the Australian Open on. Kudos on how Tennis Australia has escaped scrutiny here.
I have no idea what Accelerationism is but it seems to involve the movie 'The Matrix' which I had previously only appreciated as a reminder of Sydney before it was ruined by the Olympics and the 'global city' spivs that ruin every city
TBC: The Matrix was a good SciFi movie. No one in ~2000 thought it was about Trans. Many esp trad Christians thought Neo (anagram of One) and Trinity were Christian allegories, Moebius as a prophet, No one in ~2000 thought trans anything.
The Matrix also reminds that there were large parts of urban Sydney where you could still park in ~2000. The Olympics - which is a magnet for every Spiv & urban planning crook to ruin your city - really changed Sydney & gave the worst people a start in a beautiful city.
You - Australia is a massive Federation and the pandemic has shown us all the problems of parochial States neglecting the national interest.
@AusRepublic - here is our model to ensure every President would come from Sydney or Melbourne at the risk of the Federation's unity.
Australia is a nation-state under both the Crown and under our monarchical and federal Constitution (our preamble actually tells you a lot about the institutional set-up). If you want a republic, you need to draft a constitution from a blank sheet of paper for a republic.
I covered off on the Republic in straightfoward terms here in @dailytelegraph in 2019, for the 20th anniversary of the Republic's 1999 defeat. (right click to open in larger format).